The Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs will meet in the Week 1 edition of Monday Night Football on September 14. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The game will broadcast live on ABC and ESPN.
The Chiefs are 2.5-point favorites over the Broncos on the spread (Chiefs -2.5), with the over/under set at 43.5 total points. Kansas City is a -142 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Denver is listed as a +120 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Broncos vs Chiefs predictions and Monday Night Football preview.
Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction
- Broncos vs Chiefs picks: Under 43.5 | 1H Under 21.5
My Broncos vs. Chiefs best bet is split between the total to stay under 43.5 points and the first half to stay under 21.5 points, with the best price tags currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Broncos vs Chiefs Odds
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 43.5 -108o / -112u | +120 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 43.5 -108o / -112u | -142 |
Broncos vs Chiefs Monday Night Football Preview
There are plenty of reasons to expect a slow start to the season for this Chiefs offense.
For starters, this will mark Patrick Mahomes' first game back from injury after not taking any snaps in the preseason. As a result, there could be some rust and a lack of rhythm in the passing attack.
I'd also imagine he might not be as effective with his legs right off the bat, so it's reasonable to expect a reduction in volume of his drive-extending scrambles and off-the-cuff completions after buying time in the pocket.
Additionally, with starting left tackle Josh Simmons sidelined due to a back injury, the tackle situation for Kansas City is extremely worrisome against a very aggressive Denver defense. If Simmons can't go, they will likely start undrafted rookie free agent Kahlil Benson at left tackle — a position he never even played in college.
Going up against Nik Bonnito in your first ever start at a new position doesn't sound like much fun, so I'm sure K.C. will have to provide him plenty of help. Part of that help can be leaning on key offseason acquisition Kenneth Walker, who Kansas City hopes can provide a spark to the ground game which has lacked any explosiveness for years.
With the addition of Walker, Mahomes returning from injury and the potential pass protection issues at both tackle spots, it would certainly make sense for the usually pass-happy Chiefs to spike their run rate in this particular spot.
While the Denver defense could take a slight step back after the loss of John Franklin-Myers and suspension of Jonathon Cooper, this is still one of the league's top units. Having Patrick Surtain on the outside just allows defensive coordinator Vance Joseph so much freedom to get creative and aggressive across the board.
Plus, this is a Chiefs wide receive room that continues to underperform expectations, while Travis Kelce isn't getting any younger.
On the other side of the ball, the Kansas City defense has questions all over.
Chris Jones (who is dealing with a calf injury) is also getting up there in age, while the secondary lost two stalwart cornerbacks in Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.
The Chiefs need Mansoor Delane to shine at cornerback right away, which is a tall task for a rookie. It's a very raw cornerback room outside of L'Jarius Sneed, who will likely get plenty of reps in the slot — there's a chance he's just a shell of his former self.
The potential areas of weakness don't stop there, as the pass rush remains underwhelming on paper and there are injuries to that group in addition to starting safety Chamarri Conner, who will miss tonight's game with a knee injury. That will leave the back end to be manned by newcomer Alohi Gilman plus some combination of Jaden Hicks and undrafted rookie Xavier Nwankpa.
On paper, this is not a very talented defense, especially if Jones (who they need for his splash plays) is limited.
Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction, Betting Analysis
Even with the real concerns surrounding this Chiefs defense, I played the under, which I split between the first half and full game.
For what it's worth, Kansas City home unders have been a cash cow in recent seasons. Over the past four yeas, they have gone 26-8 (76.5%), staying under by six points per game on average.
The same can be said of this particular matchup with each of the previous K.C.-Denver matchups staying below the closing total. The combined points scored in each of those six contests were 33, 30, 37, 41, 38, and 33 with none of the clashes in Kansas City eclipsing 37.
I expect the Chiefs to lean on Kenneth Walker with a methodical and slow-paced offense that will have its hands full with one of the league's best defenses. And on the other side of the ball, I'm trusting Steve Spagnuolo with prep to schematically make up for some of the personnel questions against an opponent he's very familiar with.
The addition of Jaylen Waddle may provide another level of explosiveness for the Denver offense, but we've seen this offense start very slow on a consistent basis under Bo Nix — and there's a potential for some growing pains with a new playcaller at the helm.
Picks: Under 43.5 | 1H Under 21.5
