With two games already in the books, this new NFL season rolls into its first weekend.
That's where I begin my NFL Week 1 picks for the new 2026 season, followed by bets, leans, and passes for the rest of the slate, including Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.
Every week, I break down my thoughts on every NFL game from a betting perspective. NFL odds move throughout the week, and getting action in at key numbers can be the difference between a good and great betting season.
NFL 1 Picks & Previews
| Table of Contents |
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| Passes |
| Leans |
| Picks |
| Sunday Night Football |
| Monday Night Football |
Passes
Buccaneers vs Bengals
The Bengals' new-look defense will get a fairly strong test to start the season as they look to shut down a Buccaneers offense led by Baker Mayfield, which should be more effective than we saw down the stretch last season, when they lost seven of eight games following the bye week while routinely playing without several key pieces.
Cincinnati lost Trey Hendrickson but brought in Dexter Lawrence, Boye Mafe, and Jonathan Allen, which should lead to greater effectiveness, though the unit is still the team's clear weakness.
Offensively, the Bengals are among the NFL's more obvious bounce-back candidates, with Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and the offensive line all healthy to start the campaign.
Even with below-average defensive results, Cincinnati could easily be a playoff team if the offensive stars enjoy healthy campaigns, but blowouts may remain fairly uncommon unless the defense is surprisingly stout.
Both sides should be improved relative to last season, and this is one of the more exciting matchups of the week, but the spread seems fair, while a total of 50.5 seems high enough to guard against shootout potential.
Verdict: Pass
Bills vs Texans
Undoubtedly one of the best games on the board, we will get our first look at the AFC-favorite Bills under new head coach Joe Brady in a matchup on the road versus an elite Texans defense.
Josh Allen enters the year as the favorite to win MVP and is the main reason the Bills are considered to have one of the highest ceilings in the NFL — but the team's lack of defense remains a concern, and the potential for growing pains offensively this season may be realistic.
The Texans ranked atop the league in most key defensive metrics last season and should be a safe bet to be comparably strong in 2026.
C.J. Stroud's play was a concern last season with few notable weapons, and whether the offense can be more effective this season will likely determine whether the Texans are a true contender.
It will be very interesting to see how the Bills look versus another contender in their season opener, but this feels like a fairly natural spot to pass in Week 1.
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Leans
Saints vs Lions
Versus a soft schedule down the stretch, Tyler Shough's play offered cause for optimism while the team won four-of-five, and the Saints are suddenly expected to make the playoffs just over a third of the time by oddsmakers entering the season.
The Saints defense finished the year in the top 11 in EPA per play in 2025 and should remain quite solid during Brandon Staley's second year with the team. However, New Orleans' defensive results were aided by a soft schedule, and the results versus higher-caliber offenses were still fairly average.
While Jared Goff has a tendency to turn into a pumpkin in tougher conditions, the team's offensive results at home during his tenure have generally been quite dominant, and that seems likely to continue with Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta offering a stacked skill-position group.
The Lions' defensive line should be improved relative to last season, but the secondary still looks to be a big question mark, particularly with Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph beginning the season on the PUP list.
With the Lions' secondary still looking to be a clear concern entering this matchup, this game does seem likely to be somewhat of a shootout. It does have the second-highest total of the week, though, and I'm not quite there on backing the over.
Verdict: Lean Over 49.5
Bears vs Panthers
The Bears are widely viewed as one of the top regression candidates in football, a thought that even head coach Ben Johnson noted leading into the year.
Though the team's 7-4 mark in one-score games and +22 turnover margin are unlikely to be replicated, it doesn't appear as though the team is necessarily overvalued entering Week 1 as they take on Bryce Young and the Panthers.
While the Bears may be fairly shaky defensively, Caleb Williams should lead a highly effective offense with a strong offensive line and three high-upside pass catchers in Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, and Rome Odunze.
That's enough to keep me off the Panthers, who could be argued to be an even greater regression candidate than the Bears after emerging victorious in an ultra-soft battle for the NFC South last season.
Young ranked 27th in passing grade among qualified QB's in 2025 and struggled to handle pressure, which could be a concern with the offensive line down both starting tackles.
Browns vs Jaguars
The Jaguars currently project to be the second-most popular pick in survivor pools this weekend, with the approach of saving them for Week 12's home matchup versus the Titans potentially keeping the usage rate down a hair.
The bull case for Cleveland revolves around Deshaun Watson returning to form after several years of issues off the field and numerous injury concerns. Maybe there's a decent quarterback still in there somewhere, but that feels like a reach at this point, and the O-line and coaching staff are also far from proven.
Jacksonville's defense is unlikely to generate as many turnovers as last season, but it still allowed the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL and should be able to keep Quinshon Judkins in check and force Watson to prove he is still an effective pocket passer.
The Browns defense is likely to be quietly solid once again and is the most logical path to this ultimately being a surprisingly competitive game, but they will likely spend plenty of time on the field in this matchup, a concern that has plagued them for several seasons.
Dolphins vs Raiders
The Raiders offense is expected to improve with Kirk Cousins brought in to work under Klint Kubiak, but it has already suffered a tough break as Brock Bowers is expected to miss at least two weeks after minor knee surgery.
The offensive line is expected to be less pathetic, which, coupled with the addition of Cousins, should help Ashton Jeanty find a little more space this season.
The Dolphins are the second favorite to finish with the worst record in the NFL — Malik Willis offers very little upside under center while a defense with little in the way of established talent is widely expected to be among the worst in the league.
De'Von Achane remains one of the most explosive backs in the NFL and could certainly have a strong day versus an iffy interior run defense, but the case to back Miami feels pretty light, and I'd lean with the Raiders at home.
Packers vs Vikings
The NFC North is expected to be a powerhouse this season, which adds a little extra incentive for both sides to get off to a strong start in this rivalry matchup.
Minnesota scraped its way to a 9-8 record last year thanks to a five-game winning streak to conclude the season, despite relatively putrid play from a trio of quarterbacks. Kyler Murray will almost certainly prove to be a notable upgrade at quarterback and will be jumping into a desirable situation on a roster featuring elite skill players and a strong offensive line.
Brian Flores has done well to get the most out of his defensive personnel with clever scheming and pressure packages historically, and the Vikings defense will present a formidable test for Jordan Love and a Packers offense whose offensive line and backfield situation may prevent much effectiveness in the running game.
Packers head coach Matt Lafleur is 17-4 ATS in the first three weeks of the season throughout his career, but it feels a little uncomfortable to weigh that trend too heavily with the potential concerns surrounding his roster entering Week 1 with Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs sidelined.
It's not surprising to see the market move toward Minnesota entering this matchup, and at -1.5 the Vikings would still be my clear lean on the spread.
Cardinals vs Chargers
A season-ending injury to center Tyler Biadasz has quelled the Chargers' hype to some extent, but it still feels as though Mike McDaniel will prove to be a good fit to help maximize the effectiveness of Justin Herbert, and obviously that notion has leaked into the fantasy world based on the ADPs of Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey, Justin Herbert, and Quentin Johnston.
If the offensive line proves to be reasonably effective, the offense figures to be a well-balanced machine, and the Cardinals do offer a cushy matchup for the makeshift unit to catch its stride and for Herbert to get his rhythm in McDaniel's system.
Arizona's defensive line ranks 31st, per PFF, and the expected weakness of the defense as a whole is a key reason for the team's betting total of 3.5 wins.
A spread of -9.5 in Week 1 is significant, but it's still Chargers or pass for me in a spot where the offense may score at will.
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Picks
Jets vs Titans
With respect to both fanbases, this is not the most intriguing game from the season-opening NFL slate. From a betting perspective, though, there is a fairly solid case that the Jets, pathetic as they tend to be, don't deserve to be underdogs.
It's hard to find many football observers with anything positive to say about Brian Callahan's tenure with the Titans, and things still seemed far from ideal under Mike McCoy. The offensive line did not pass-block remotely well, while the team also struggled to move the ball on the ground.
Those excuses can be used to defend Cam Ward to some extent, but he still did not show the promise you would hope to see from a first overall pick, and his play this preseason was quite concerning and has not inspired much confidence that things will look entirely different.
The offensive line still ranks 29th, per PFF, and though Carnell Tate offers Ward a vastly improved target relative to anyone he had last year, it may be difficult for the unit to fully maximize Tate's upside if the ground game is still ineffective and the O-line struggles in pass protection.
The Jets ranked 11th in EPA versus the rush last season but could be well situated to get some pressure on Ward in this matchup and prevent him from exposing their lesser results on dropback plays.
Though it's hard to say Geno Smith is entering a good situation, he should receive more help from the O-line than he did last season with the Raiders, and it feels easy to forget that he's just one year removed from a solid season in Seattle.
We're not going to oversell him for the sake of this pick, but given the Jets' advantages elsewhere, we can live with backing Smith in Week 1.
Ravens vs Colts
There are a lot of arguments as to why the Ravens' new-look offense under Declan Doyle and head coach Jesse Minter will be vastly improved relative to last season.
The interior offensive line should be improved, while four rookie pass-catchers, led by Ja'Kobi Lane, should make life more difficult for opposing secondaries.
But the determining factor will be whether Lamar Jackson looks like his former self after a disappointing 2025 campaign marred by numerous leg injuries. I'm buying into the hype that last year's disappointing form will prove to be a one-off that will eventually be explained by his inability to do the things that have made him so effective historically.
Daniel Jones outperformed consensus expectations last season, but it feels far from a guarantee that will remain the case as he returns from an Achilles injury. Indianapolis' offensive line is expected to be among the best in football, which should once again heighten the effectiveness of Jonathan Taylor and work to prevent Jones from having to do anything too extraordinary.
The Ravens' defensive front should be rock solid (although we certainly wish Nnamdi Madubuike were available), and should be well-prepared to limit Taylor's effectiveness on early downs and force Jones to beat a strong secondary.
If Jackson is back at an MVP level this season, Ravens -3.5 may look like a gift a few months from now, and it looks like a bettable price to back a Ravens side that should be firmly in contention for the AFC title this season.
Falcons vs Steelers
Per PFF, Tua Tagovailoa ranked 34th among 43 qualified QB's in overall grade last season. As a fan of the game, I'd be happy to see Tagovailoa enjoy a healthy, successful campaign, but that seems relatively unlikely, and this is a very tough spot out of the gate on the road versus what still figures to be an excellent Steelers defense boasting T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Cam Heyward and a strong secondary.
Tagovailoa made 25 turnover-worthy plays last season, and it seems logical to expect Falcons OC Tommy Rees to try and call this one conservatively, looking to lean on Bijan Robinson heavily. But the Steelers should be able to limit explosive plays on the ground, which would certainly favor the under.
With Jalon Walker sidelined with a torn ACL and James Pearce serving an eight-game suspension, the Falcons defense does look concerning. However, most metrics ranked Aaron Rodgers in the bottom third last season, and the Steelers offense certainly doesn't feel overly explosive on paper.
With Mike McCarthy calling the plays, it doesn't seem overly likely that the Steelers will be overly aggressive offensively in leading game scripts.
Pittsburgh's defense seems likely to get off to a strong start in this matchup, but the upside of the offense remains quite low and could prevent this game from being uncompetitive.
Verdict: Play Under 42 (Play 42 to 55¢)
Commanders vs Eagles
The majority of NFL observers won't need to be convinced of the upside of Jayden Daniels entering the year, but with Laremy Tunsil sidelined, the Commanders' offensive line is a massive concern, one that may be difficult to hide versus an Eagles defensive line that PFF ranks as the fourth-best unit in the NFL.
Washington's offensive line ranks dead last, and Philadelphia should be able to generate pressure without consistently blitzing, making it difficult for Daniels to wait for his receivers to develop downfield.
David Blough's new offense is expected to incorporate more motion and play action this season and, in time and in more favorable matchups, could prove to be a fairly explosive unit.
Hurts ranked just 20th in QBR last season, while his 0.04 EPA per dropback ranked tied for 18th, and the Eagles finished 21st in per-play EPA, which ultimately led to the appointment of Sean Mannion as offensive coordinator.
Explosive plays through the air still may not be overly common for the Eagles this season, and if the Commanders can't buy Daniels enough time to make plays downfield, game scripts involving the Eagles leaning on Barkley to insulate a lead seem somewhat likely, and we could see a fairly methodical divisional matchup.
Verdict: Play Under 44.5 52¢ (Play to 44.5 to 55¢)
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Sunday Night Football
Cowboys vs Giants
Though neither team was overly competitive last season, this feels like a pretty fun season-opening edition of Sunday Night Football.
Jaxson Dart will make his first Week 1 start, versus a rival Cowboys side that surrendered 30.1 points per game last season. Dart will enjoy having Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo healthy for essentially the first time in his career (Nabers tore his ACL in the second quarter of Dart's first start).
It's not unrealistic to believe the offense could be respectable based on the glimpses of high-end play Dart offered at times last season and the stabilizing presence that John Harbaugh brings to the side.
The Giants' defense could potentially take a big leap, and Abdul Carter, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and Brian Burns are definitely capable of creating some legitimate pressure towards Dak Prescott in this matchup.
Prescott is obviously a far more proven QB, and the upside of the Cowboys offense feels to be quite high once again, but whether or not this year's results are significantly better will hinge on how significantly improved the defense proves to be under first-year DC Christian Parker.
The personnel is undoubtedly improved thanks to the additions of Quinnen Williams, Kenny Clark, Rashan Gary and Caleb Downs, but it still feels hard to power-rate the unit too highly after the horrid results we saw last season.
Relative to the current spread, there is a fairly solid case for either side, and I'm happy to pass on this one.
Verdict: Pass
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Monday Night Football
Broncos vs Chiefs
Will Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid prove that the Chiefs' window of contention is still open?
I hope not, but to keep a neutral perspective, it does seem pretty reasonable to believe Mahomes and the offense will both be significantly improved. The offensive line should be improved, while Kenneth Walker clears up what has been a messy backfield.
For a change, Mahomes and the Chiefs struggled in close games last season, while the Broncos went 12-3 in one-score games last season, before losing one in the AFC Championship game with Bo Nix sidelined due to injury. Denver lost some depth defensively but still should be a safe bet to be in the league's top third in terms of effectiveness.
With Mahomes potentially poised for a bounce-back campaign, it would feel fitting for him and the Chiefs to win a close one in trademark fashion at Arrowhead versus a Broncos side due for regression in close games.
I'm not quite there in backing K.C. to cover, but betting on them to win by 1-6 at a great price feels like a fun sprinkle to close out the week.
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