AFC West rivals, the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs, wrap up NFL Week 1 on Monday Night Football on Sept. 14. Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast on ESPN and ABC.
The Chiefs are 2.5-point favorites over the Broncos on the spread (Chiefs -2.5), with an over/under of 43.5. The Chiefs are -132 favorites on the moneyline and the Broncos are +112 underdogs.
Continue below for our Broncos vs Chiefs picks for Monday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, moneyline, over/under, and anytime touchdown prop.
Broncos vs Chiefs Picks, Props
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Broncos vs Chiefs Odds
- Broncos vs Chiefs Moneyline: Broncos +112, Chiefs -132
- Broncos vs Chiefs Total: 43.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Broncos vs Chiefs Spread: Broncos +2.5 (-115), Chiefs -2.5 (-105)
MNF odds via FanDuel
Broncos vs Chiefs Spread Prediction
By Billy Ward
I could see the Chiefs returning to their former offensive juggernaut glory at some point this season, but I have serious concerns in Week 1.
Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL late last season, their top wide receiver had to rehab his own knee injury in jail, and Travis Kelce is another year older after a fairly quiet 2025.
On the other hand, the Broncos offense should be improved this season thanks to the addition of Jaylen Waddle. Bo Nix has the best receiving corps he’s had in his career, plus arguably the best offensive line in the entire NFL.
With both teams roughly equal on defense, that means the offenses should determine things, and at this point in the season I have more faith in the Broncos.
While I wish the spread were +3 instead of +2.5, I’m tempted to say the Broncos should actually be favored here, so getting +2.5 points at -110 odds is fine with me.
Pick: Broncos +2.5 (-108)
Broncos vs Chiefs Moneyline Pick
By Brit Devine
Not enough credit is being given to the Broncos.
Patrick Mahomes will be making his first start off an ACL tear he suffered at the end of last season. His top receiver, Rashee Rice, was rehabbing his right knee surgery while spending time in jail.
K.C.'s starting LT Josh Simmons has been ruled out with a knee injury, which will thrust an undrafted free agent rookie into a starting role protecting Mahomes on the blind side to open the season.
Denver has one of the best offensive lines in football. The Broncos also added an elite playmaker via trade in Jaylen Waddle on the outside, and while they did lose a few good players on the defensive side of the ball, they should still be one of the better units in the league.
Going against Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid in a home opener might have sounded foolish a few years ago, but in 2026, it looks like an extremely smart play.
Pick: Broncos Moneyline (+125)
Broncos vs Chiefs Over/Under Pick
Even the casual bettor is well aware the Chiefs offense has been far less explosive over the last three seasons.
However, bettors may not have fully grasped the incredible betting opportunity this has created when Kansas City is facing a divisional foe. Since the beginning of the 2023 regular season, only three divisional games the Chiefs have played in have seen the over cash.
We not only have a healthy 18-game sample size to feel good about this trend moving forward, but all signs point to both teams struggling to score points tonight.
Kansas City’s offensive coaching staff should attempt to execute a gameplan that protects Patrick Mahomes and features a heavy dose of Kenneth Walker.
Long-term, Walker’s presence will assist in the Chiefs limiting the extreme number of third downs they relied on Mahomes magic to move the chains, but in this game, they face an uphill battle against a Broncos defense that finished third in yards per carry a season ago.
Sean Payton and the Broncos offense adds an explosive element to the mix in Jaylen Waddle, but we’ll have to wait for his breakout game as Steve Spagnuolo has been drastically increasing the amount of zone coverage he plays in the secondary. This should limit chunk plays and force Broncos QB Bo Nix to take a methodical approach to achieve potential scoring opportunities.
Denver failed to score over 20 points in either meeting with the Chiefs in 2025. This game will come down to the wire and finish in the same scoring range seemingly every AFC West game in Kansas has in recent history.
I'd play this down to 43.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-108); bet to 43
Bo Nix Anytime Touchdown Pick
By Brit Devine
Nix has scored a touchdown in four different games in each of his first two seasons — he simply shouldn't be in the +500s to get into the end zone.
This is simply an odds play that will almost assuredly disappear and move into the low +400s or high +300s by the time this game comes around. I would play this to +475.
Pick: Bo Nix Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+550)
