The Chicago Bears’ search for a new home has evolved from a local zoning dispute into a full-blown Midwestern bidding war.While the team remains under lease at Soldier Field through 2033, ownership is aggressively pursuing a state-of-the-art enclosed stadium to unlock year-round revenue from events like the Super Bowl and Final Four. On the prediction market app Kalshi, traders are currently weighing four primary outcomes, which are ranked by their current market odds.
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Latest Chicago Bears Relocation Odds at Kalshi
Here are the latest Kalshi odds for a Chicago Bears relocation before the 2028 NFL season:
No Relocation (Remaining in Chicago)
Despite the tension, "No Relocation" remains the betting favorite. The city of Chicago has recently intensified its efforts to keep the charter franchise on the Museum Campus and has pitched a $630 million renovation plan. Many analysts believe the current posturing is a high-stakes leverage play to extract better infrastructure funding from the city and state.
Indiana (The Hammond Frontrunner)
Indiana has surged into the second-favorite spot following significant legislative action. In late February 2026, Governor Mike Braun signed Senate Bill 27, establishing the Northwest Indiana Stadium Authority to facilitate a $2 billion domed stadium in Hammond, just across the state line. With tax incentives already on the table, Indiana is the most credible threat to Illinois' hold on the team.
Illinois (Arlington Heights)
The Bears already own the 326-acre former Arlington International Racecourse, making this the most "shovel-ready" site. However, property tax disagreements with local school districts have stalled progress. If the Illinois legislature passes a pending "megaprojects" tax bill, this suburban move could quickly leapfrog Indiana in the odds.
Iowa (The Wild Card)
Iowa is a distant longshot, fueled by a 2026 legislative push (Senate File 2252) to expand its MEGA program to include NFL stadium incentives. While strategically unlikely due to the distance from the Bears' core fan base, the proposal highlights how desperate neighboring states are to lure a premier NFL brand.
What Is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
