The 2026 NFL season is finally here, but I've got some season-long prop bets to add to my portfolio before we kick off.
I've already given out a handful of tight end bets and some long-shot touchdown leaders. Today, I'm looking at three wide receivers, one superstar quarterback, and two overlooked guys — one on the offensive line and one on defense — to round out my season-long NFL prop portfolio.
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Anderson's Best NFL Season-Long Props
Joe Burrow 400 Passing Yards in Any Game (-130)
At a few sportsbooks, you can bet on most of the starting quarterbacks to throw for at least 400+ passing yards in any game this season.
Joe Burrow has the shortest odds of any quarterback on the board — but that's not stopping me from betting on him.
Burrow has a 400+ yard game in four of his six seasons, so that would already imply -200 odds here on the simplest of math, but let's dig a little deeper.
Burrow has played 77 games in his career, and he's thrown for 400 yards in seven of them. That's a 9.1% hit rate to this prop for Burrow's career.
If we get even 15 games from Burrow this season with that 9.1% chance at 400 yards, binomial probability would imply a 76% chance of at least one 400+ yard game. That would mean odds shorter than -300!
Cincinnati's defense should be a bit improved this season, but the Bengals will need Burrow to chuck the ball plenty this year, and Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are as good as any WR duo in the league.
Burrow has only failed to cash this prop in two seasons, where he missed eight and 10 games, and I don't find him particularly injury prone, just mostly unlucky.
If Burrow stays healthy, this should be a pretty easy cash at some point.
Ladd McConkey Over 72.5 Receptions (-114)
If you tailed my Offensive Player of the Year bets, you know we bet on potential outlier performances from four-star receivers.
We're about to bet on three of them for more realistic outcomes.
Ladd McConkey looks like the WR1 in a Mike McDaniel offense with Justin Herbert throwing to him, and honestly, that sentence alone should be enough for you to bet this number.
McConkey had a disappointing sophomore campaign. He caught only 66 balls for under 800 yards and saw his targets drop from a breakout rookie season, with Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston soaking up a worrying number of targets.
But Allen is gone now, and Johnston's role is clear at this point. McConkey is the far superior route runner with great hands, and he should be the go-to guy in an offense that looks like it should accentuate his strengths.
We saw Tyreek Hill post multiple seasons with 119 catches and 1,700+ receiving yards under McDaniel. McConkey can't match Tyreek's speed — honestly, who can? — and may not handle that 170+ target load, but he should breach double-digit targets most games if healthy.
Even Jaylen Waddle had 75, 72, 58, and 64 catches in McDaniel's offense as the second guy the last four years, and he only played all 17 games in one of those seasons.
McConkey only missed this one by seven catches last year. I expect him to clear it with ease this time around.
Parker Washington Over 62.5 Receptions (-115)
Jacksonville's receiving corps really found itself over the back half of the season.
Going into the season last fall, we expected Brian Thomas Jr. to be the star with rookie Travis Hunter starring in the slot.
But Hunter never got healthy and looks like he'll be mostly a cornerback this season, and Thomas got a case of the dropsies and never got on track.
Once the Jaguars traded for Jakobi Meyers midseason, everything finally settled in.
Meyers does the short, dirty work, and Thomas has become something of a sacrificial X, stretching the field, but Parker Washington has become the target man in Liam Coen's offense.
Over the final four games of the season, including the playoffs, Washington's numbers would pace to 111 catches for 1,930 yards and 13 TDs on 175 targets over a full 17-game season. That's a tiny sample size, of course, but it's not all that shocking if you consider Coen's history.
The man loves to pepper his power slot target. Wan'Dale Robinson averaged over 100 yards a game for Coen at Kentucky. Cooper Kupp was on pace for 150/1,700 through eight games in 2022 before getting hurt as the fantasy WR1. Then two years later, Chris Godwin was on pace for 120/1,400 himself through seven games before also getting hurt as fantasy WR2.
You might not think Washington is a star, but you probably didn't expect anywhere near the numbers those guys put up either, and Washington has shown a bit more explosion for big catches on top of everything else.
Based on Coen's history, a healthy Washington season could put him in the mix for 130 catches and 1,700+ yards. We literally need less than half of that to cash this bet, so it's an easy over at 62.5 catches.
Jaylen Waddle — NFL Receiving Yards Leader (+6000)
Jaylen Waddle is my favorite OPOY long shot, and I think he has a real shot at pushing for 2,000 yards and the record.
Waddle changes everything in Denver. He's the speed threat the Broncos simply didn't have a season ago — his presence rounds out the entire WR room.
That's music to Bo Nix's ears.
Nix had a top-three deep ball grade in PFF last season but hasn't had a reliable go-to target — Waddle can change that in a hurry. He has YAC ability no one else in Denver has, or he can just run right past everyone over the top for a 75-yard bomb.
Courtland Sutton led this team with around 130 targets for 80 receptions and just over 1,000 yards the last couple seasons, and that won't get us anywhere near leading the league. But we've never seen Waddle play with a QB with an arm like this — certainly not Tua Tagovailoa's noodle arm.
What if Waddle gets to 150 targets, as he pushed as a rookie? And with his speed, what if he pushes 16 or even 18 yards per catch? Even a couple of those 75-yard bombs could rack up yardage in a hurry in this offense.
We also don't know exactly what new offensive coordinator Davis Webb's offense will look like, but that means untapped upside.
This is the one receiver I'd leave every fantasy draft with. I think Waddle has league-winner upside.
If he does, it'll be because he's racking up monster yardage with a bunch of long plays.
We've seen seven seasons of 1,700 receiving yards or better in the last four seasons, with a peak at 1,809, so that's the range we're looking for — basically about 100 yards a game.
Let's see what Waddle can do.
AP First Team All-Pro Center: Creed Humphrey (+300)
Creed Humphrey is the best center in the NFL, and it honestly might not be that close.
Humphrey led the league in PFF grade at center last season, not that it was a real surprise. Humphrey has been in the league five seasons, and he's ranked 1st in PFF grade in four of the five seasons. He was a measly 4th in the other season.
With some of the retirements the last few years, Humphrey stands head and shoulders above the field at center. Young centers like Miami's Aaron Brewer and Pittsburgh's Zach Frazier are playing for second.
Voters don't try to get creative picking First Team All-Pro players — they just take the best guy, and the top linemen win year after year.
Humphrey already cashed this each of the last two seasons, and if he is healthy enough to play most of the season, he should do so again. I'd take him against the field.
AP First Team All-Pro Safety: Kyle Hamilton (+320)
Kyle Hamilton is just as dominant at the safety position, so much so that he's routinely in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year even though no safety has ever won the award.
Like Humphrey, Hamilton's PFF grades speak for themselves: 1st, 6th, 2nd, and 2nd among almost 100 qualifying safeties in each of those seasons. He's the best in the business, and you know it — and the voters do too.
Hamilton has been used as the fix for all of Baltimore's problems defensively, and that could be even more true under new Ravens head coach Jesse Minter, who loves to weaponize his safeties and move them all over the field like chess pieces.
Under Minter, Hamilton could be even better and more dangerous than ever.
Hamilton cashed this bet as a First Team All-Pro in two of the last three seasons, and he finished Second Team on the one in between despite getting DPOY votes.
We're not exactly breaking news on these last two — betting the favorites — but these prices are just too long.
Like Humphrey, I'd take Hamilton against the field and we get two safety positions on First Team too, so I'll say thanks for the +320 and place my bet.
