Welcome to my 2026 NFL Power Rankings and Season Futures!
I’m breaking down the entire league from 32 to 1, tier by tier. This isn't just about where teams stand today — it's about how we can bet them over the course of the season.
We've got win totals, division futures, and a handful of player props and awards sprinkled in, with at least one bet for every NFL team.
Let’s dive into my NFL Power Rankings and also find some value.
NFL Power Rankings
| Tier Number | Category |
|---|---|
| Tier IX | Start Scouting Saturdays |
| Tier VIII | Outlook Not So Good |
| Tier VII | Hey, It's Better Than Last Year |
| Tier VI | No Man's Land |
| Tier V | We Need to Have a Conversation |
| Tier IV | Gunnin' for the Top |
| Tier III | Last Year’s Results Speak for Themselves |
| Tier II | SoFi or Bust |
| Tier I | The Target is on Your Back |
Tier IX — Start Scouting Saturdays
32. Cleveland Browns
The Browns are the worst of the worst in two of my rankings: dead last at quarterback and dead last at offensive line. You get Deshaun Watson struggling to beat out Shedeur Sanders, and the offensive line is trotting out five new guys.
When your offense is the worst in the league, you're usually the worst team. I also have the Browns last in special teams, returning a bad punter, bad kickoff unit, and bad returners from a unit that ranked 31st last year.
The defense still has talent, but losing Myles Garrett and playcaller Jim Schwartz is a steep drop-off. There is a real chance Todd Monken is simply not up for this job as head coach.
The core is rotten.
The bet: Least wins in the NFL (+1100 at Circa)
Over/Under Verdict: Under 5.5 (Lean)
31. Miami Dolphins
Miami looks like an expansion team.
The Dolphins have my 32nd-ranked defense by a mile, starting three to five rookies with the worst secondary in the league. Jeff Hafley has his work cut out for him.
The offense is where you can at least be intrigued. What does it look like with Malik Willis, De'Von Achane, and a young, improving offensive line under Bobby Slowik?
I expect Willis to run a ton, as he averaged 53 rushing yards over his last five NFL starts. Even if he only plays 15 games, that’s 800 yards.
The Dolphins also boast a top-five special teams unit, which might accidentally steal them a game.
The bet: Malik Willis most QB rushing yards (+600 at DraftKings)
Over/Under Verdict: Over 3.5 (Pass)
30. Arizona Cardinals
I don't think the Cardinals belong down here in this tier, but they're dragged down by the brutal NFC West. They have a lot of fun skill players — Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, and Jeremiyah Love.
With Mike LaFleur running the offense and a solid left side of the line, Arizona can find some answers. However, the Cards are 7-point underdogs or worse in their first 11 games. It's just a brutal schedule.
The Cardinals retained DC Nick Rallis despite mega injuries last year, which says enough about the defense. They're clearly the best of these three teams, but six games against my top three NFC teams will bury them early.
The good news for Arizona and Miami is that only six teams since 1990 started the season with a win total at 4.0 or lower, and every one of them won at least four games.
So, there's that.
The bet: Jeremiyah Love Offensive Rookie of the Year (+550)
Over/Under Verdict: Over 3.5 (Pass)
Tier VIII — Outlook Not So Good
29. Carolina Panthers
I have a really hard time buying any ceiling for this team.
The Panthers won the NFC South last year, but it was a mirage. They won eight games but deserved closer to six by Pythagorean metrics. They were 7-3 in one-score games and were one of only 10 playoff teams in four decades with just one multi-score win.
Carolina is basically running it back with most of its roster, adding overpriced defenders Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd. The offensive line is missing both tackles indefinitely, and Bryce Young cannot handle pressure.
My median outcome for this team in all phases is around 25th in the league. If things go bad, the bottom could easily fall out.
This is my favorite win total on the board, so I'm playing the under and will also look at an alt under-5.5 (+245 at DraftKings) and worst record in the NFL at +2500 (BetMGM).
The bet: Under 7.5 (-125 at BetRivers, multiple units)
Over/Under Verdict: Under 7.5 (BET)
28. Tennessee Titans
The Titans won just three games with Cam Ward, fired everyone, and added a ton of veterans on defense like Jermaine Johnson and John Franklin-Myers. They also drafted defenders Keldric Faulk and Anthony Hill.
But Tennessee had so far to come. Even after upgrading weapons like Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson to "leap" from 32nd to 30th, the Titans still have a long way to go.
To believe in the Titans, you need to believe in either Cam Ward or the unholy tridumbverate of coaches: Robert Saleh, Brian Daboll, and Gus Bradley.
I believe in neither.
Ward's metrics are bad, and this coaching staff is one I've consistently faded.
The bet: Under 6.5 (-130 at Caesars)
Over/Under Verdict: Under 6.5 (BET)
27. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons officially announced Tua Tagovailoa as the Week 1 starter, and I immediately logged a Week 1 bet against them.
Tua almost lost the preseason job to nobody, and this quarterback situation is rivaling Cleveland for the worst in the league.
Despite solid blocking and weapons, you need someone to feed them the ball. Kevin Stefanski's offenses have been bottom-five for three straight years, and he doesn't have a QB.
Defensively, last year's smoke-and-mirrors edge rushers are gone. Jalon Walker tore his ACL, and James Pearce is suspended for eight games. I have this defense ranked bottom-five.
The bet: Under 7.5 (-125 at Caesars)
Over/Under Verdict: Under 7.5 (BET)
26. Washington Commanders
The team is more than just Jayden Daniels — and that’s the problem.
The Commanders' offensive line is dreadful, potentially league-worst without Laremy Tunsil. I’m not sure there’s a starting-caliber running back or tight end on this roster.
Defensively, Daronte Jones will bring pressure, but he doesn't have the talent to hold up in the secondary with Rasul Douglas and Amik Robertson.
The schedule is brutal early: at Philly, at Dallas, then Seattle, London against Indy, and back with no rest for the Giants and at San Francisco. You don't have to squint too hard to see an easy path to 0-6.
Teams with a returning head coach and a new offensive coordinator are 60-33 to the under since 2015 (65%, per @PlusEVAnalytics). That's a warning sign for teams like the Chargers, Lions, Broncos, Eagles, and Seahawks.
The bet: Under 7.5 (-125 at Rivers)
Over/Under Verdict: Under 7.5 (BET)
Tier VII — Hey, It's Better Than Last Year
25. Las Vegas Raiders
This is the first team I can dream up a good outcome for, and it’s all about Klint Kubiak. He is a massive floor raiser.
The offensive line will be much better with Kolton Miller healthy and Tyler Linderbaum at center. Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. looked great in preseason behind this Kubiak-improved line, and Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza are perfect fits to run point in Kubiak's system.
The guy to target is Brock Bowers. He’s going to have a monster season in this offense.
It might take time for this offense to gel, and the defense lacks talent outside of Maxx Crosby, but there are real signs of life here.
The bet: Brock Bowers over 82.5 receptions & TE receiving yards leader (+350 at DraftKings)
Over/Under Verdict: Under 6.5 (Lean)
24. New York Jets
I like the Jets with Geno Smith and some actual blocking. Armand Membou looks like the real deal, and there's plenty of offensive talent with Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, plus first-rounders Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper. I have Geno ranked as a fringe top-20 quarterback.
My main issue is Frank Reich. He is a ruiner of NFL offenses, coaching bottom-two units in his last two stops.
I do believe in Aaron Glenn's defense, though.
They add Demario Davis, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and T'Vondre Sweat. They also had the worst turnover rate (-19) last year and this team ranked bottom-two in the red zone on both offense and defense.
Simple regression will make them better all on its own.
The bet: David Bailey, Defensive Rookie of the Year (+550)
Over/Under Verdict: Over 5.5 (Pass)
23. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is a trendy pick, but I'm not totally buying it. I haven't gotten there with Tyler Shough and this offense.
We saw a late push last year, but it was against weak competition. I like the offensive line and Chris Olave, but they never stay healthy.
The defense is where this team jumped, getting to 13th in DVOA under Brandon Staley. But the special teams were worst in the league.
I project the Saints at seven wins, which is still a step forward, but not enough to back them in the futures market.
The bet: Brandon Staley, Assistant Coach of the Year (+5000)
Over/Under Verdict: Under 7.5 (Pass)
22. New York Giants
I'm officially on Giants Island. This is my worst-to-first division winner pick.
It starts with John Harbaugh, who took this coaching staff from 31st to 13th in my rankings. Special teams should also improve significantly under Chris Horton and that alone can be worth a bunch of hidden points.
The Giants defense can take a big leap. Adding DJ Reader, Shelby Harris, and Tremaine Edmunds should help what was the worst run defense in the league, freeing up Abdul Carter, Brian Burns, and Kayvon Thibodeaux to rush the passer.
Offensively, I just need a high floor from Matt Nagy and Greg Roman to let Jaxson Dart manage the game. They are a clear positive regression team with a favorable schedule.
The bet: Giants to win the NFC East (+600 at DraftKings/FanDuel)
Over/Under Verdict: Over 7.5 (BET)
Tier VI — No Man's Land
21. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are a classic Jekyll-and-Hyde team.
They finished top five in DVOA last year and top seven in both rushing and passing, a credit to Shane Steichen and an elite offensive line.
But it's all about Daniel Jones, who wasn't even that great while this offense was whirring, and we don't know what he'll look like coming off an Achilles injury.
The Colts have a brutal start against Baltimore, Kansas City, and Houston. It's just hard to invest right now when the quarterback situation is so murky against that schedule.
I'm taking a wait-and-see approach.
The bet: Daniel Jones, Comeback Player of the Year (+2200) & Quenton Nelson, Protector of the Year (4% on prediction markets)
Over/Under Verdict: Under 8.5 (Pass)
20. Green Bay Packers
I believe in Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love, but nothing else about this team right now.
The core is good but the rest looks rotten because the next most important players — Micah Parsons, Josh Jacobs, and Tucker Kraft — are all huge question marks entering the season.
Green Bay's offensive line has dropped to the bottom five in my rankings, disastrous for a run-heavy scheme, and defensively, the Packers are a paper tiger until Parsons gets back.
I want no part of their futures early in the year. This is the biggest "no buy" decision in the market right now.
The bet: Packers to finish last in the NFC North (+350 at DraftKings)
Over/Under Verdict: Under 9.5 (Lean)
19. Pittsburgh Steelers
You kind of just expect the Steelers to keep being the Steelers.
I love the defense: T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Cam Heyward up front with Jamel Dean added to Joey Porter Jr. and Jalen Ramsey at corner. Patrick Graham has done a great job maximizing talent with the Raiders, and this unit could easily be top five.
The offense, however, is as middle-of-the-pack as it gets. Now Mike McCarthy is calling the plays. The Steelers have a young, improving line, but can McCarthy elevate Aaron Rodgers and Michael Pittman? I'm skeptical.
The bet: Patrick Graham, Assistant Coach of the Year (+8000)
Over/Under Verdict: Over 8.5 (Pass)
Tier V — We Need to Have a Conversation
18. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are listed as AFC favorites, but I'm out.
This isn't about Josh Allen — he's my No. 1 quarterback. It's about Joe Brady's overly run-heavy play calling and the massive drop-off defensively and in the coaching staff.
Sean McDermott maximized his defensive talent, and replacing him with Jim Leonhard is a huge risk given the bottom-seven talent on this defense. They also lost special teams ace Chris Tabor.
The opening schedule is brutal: at Houston, a short week against Detroit, then the Chargers, Patriots, and at the Rams. They could easily start 2-3 or even 1-4.
McDermott was so good at raising this team's floor, as Buffalo had gone over in seven of nine seasons. Sometimes you don't know what you got til it's gone.
The bet: Bills to miss the playoffs (+280 at BetMGM)
Over/Under Verdict: Under 10.5 (BET)
17. Detroit Lions
I'm worried this team is trickling in the wrong direction.
The offensive line has fallen from 1st two years ago to 17th entering this season with C Cade Mays hurt. Jared Goff struggles with interior pressure, and the run game is slowly fading without Ben Johnson and now David Montgomery.
I do like the Lions defense once Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are healthy, and they have an insanely soft fourth-place schedule — enough to stop me from fading the Lions too hard, even with my doubts.
The bet: Aidan Hutchinson, Defensive Player of the Year (+950)
Over/Under Verdict: Under 10.5 (Pass)
16. Denver Broncos
I remain mostly underwhelmed by the Broncos. They won 14 games last year but played like an 11-win team, going 12-3 in one-score games including the postseason.
Bo Nix had a horseshoe up his butt all year, but he was only 1-6 in one-score games the previous season. Unless you're Patrick Mahomes, that sort of luck in close games does not typically last.
There is some offensive upside with Jaylen Waddle, who i bet both for OPOY (+12500) and to lead the league in receiving yards (+6000). New OC Davis Webb adds some uncertainty too, which means both ceiling and floor until we learn more.
The defense lost a lot of front-seven depth, and Vance Joseph's scheme without overwhelming talent is concerning.
The Broncos face the Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, Chargers, and Seahawks in their first six games, so we can fade now and adjust later if needed.
The bet: Broncos to miss the playoffs (+134 at FanDuel)
Over/Under Verdict: Under 9.5 (Pass)
15. Jacksonville Jaguars
This might be the most baffling team on the board for me.
The regression signals are like a neon sign. Jacksonville jumped from 32nd in takeaways to 2nd last year — a massive fluke likely to regress. The Jaguars also played 41% of their snaps against backup quarterbacks and won most of their one-score games.
I love Liam Coen's offense and Trevor Lawrence's breakout, but the Jaguars also have a bottom-three offensive line and no rushing attack so that limits this offense.
The real breakout last season came from Anthony Campanile's defense, which ranked top-seven in DVOA, but a lot of that was due to those turnovers that likely won't repeat.
My spidey senses are telling me to be very careful here.
The bet: Chris Rodriguez, Jaguars TD leader (+1100 at DraftKings)
Over/Under Verdict: Under 9.5 (Lean)
Tier IV — Gunnin' for the Top
14. Cincinnati Bengals
I really want to believe in the Bengals more, and this is about as much belief as I've given them heading into a season.
The offensive line is finally approaching league average, and the run game is trending up. Is the under-center and play-action stuff real? We'll see.
With Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, the offense will be elite if healthy.
The defense is still a problem. They ranked 30th last year, lost Trey Hendrickson for Dexter Lawrence, and the new pieces will take time to gel.
The line and defense are improved, but how much? There's a big difference between 30th, 24th, and 18th.
Cincinnati faces a tough opening month but the schedule really softens over the back half. There will be opportunities to buy later if this looks real.
The bet: Joe Burrow 400+ pass yards in any game (-130 at DraftKings)
Over/Under Verdict: Over 10.5 (Lean)
13. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are everyone's favorite sleeper, but so much of that upside is already priced into the market.
I love the addition of Mike McDaniel, but it will take time to implement a new system without Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle's speed, and with a talent like Justin Herbert in place of Tua Tagovailoa.
A big part of the belief in this team was meant to be its offensive line, but the injuries have already started up again. C Tyler Biadasz is out for the season, so the Chargers start three new interior linemen including a rookie center, and T Rashawn Slater isn't fully healthy yet either.
The Chargers' schedule from Weeks 3-9 is brutal and remains unrelenting throughout, and this is going to take some time to settle in.
I absolutely want all the Omarion Hampton and Ladd McConkey fantasy football stock, but I can't back the team futures with this schedule.
The bet: Ladd McConkey, Offensive Player of the Year (+15000) and over 62.5 receptions
Over/Under Verdict: Under 10.5 (Pass)
12. Minnesota Vikings
I'm drinking the purple Kool-Aid because the betting market is pricing the Vikings all wrong.
This offense has top-three skill players you already know, and a healthy Christian Darrisaw on the line gives that unit top-10 potential. Frank Smith's scheme has added a creative run game featuring Jordan Mason to Kevin O'Connell's passing attack.
And for all the deserving questions about Kyler Murray, he is unquestionably a massive upgrade over the worst-in-the-league QB play the team got last year from J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer — and still went over .500.
Minnesota's defense lacks high-end talent, but DC Brian Flores makes them a top-10 unit. This could be a team that ranks top 10 on both offense and defense, playing in a division that looks entirely up for grabs with all four teams projected within a win of each other.
Considering the key players missing for Green Bay, Detroit, and Chicago and the fact that Minnesota is healthy and ready, that makes this the easiest division long shot on the board.
The bet: Vikings to win the NFC North (+510 at BetRivers)
Over/Under Verdict: Over 8.5 (BET)
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have the best offense and defense in the NFC South, yet they are being completely overlooked simply because this division has become a punchline.
The defense adds pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr. to elite run stopper Vita Vea, giving Todd Bowles a fringe top-10 unit.
The offense gets a massive health swing; the line lost 32 games to injury last year, and Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin also missed almost a season combined, while Baker Mayfield played poorly through injuries.
Tristan Wirfs is as good as any blocker and my pick for Protector of the Year (8% at prediction markets), and he is anchoring what could be the league's best offensive line. With everyone healthy, including finally this line, the Bucs offense looks very dangerous.
You have to scroll a long way back in this article to find the rest of the NFC South. I have Tampa Bay projected three full games ahead of the Saints at the top of the division — for reference, I only have one other team in football leading its division by even one full game!
The Bucs to win the division is my favorite bet of the entire article. I make this almost double the implied 36% probability, and this is a multi-unit play for me.
This is a team that could even have a path to the NFC 1-seed (+3000, Caesars).
The bet: Buccaneers to win the NFC South (+180 at bet365, 3 units)
Over/Under Verdict: Over 8.5 (BET)
10. Dallas Cowboys
Everyone is on the Cowboys, which always makes you nervous, but the roster is undeniable.
Defensively, Dallas arguably upgraded nine of 11 starting positions from opening day last year, adding key names like Quinnen Williams, Caleb Downs, and Rashad Gary. This unit was already much better when Williams was on the field last year, and new DC Christian Parker comes highly regraded from the Vic Fangio tree and should help this unit take an immediate leap.
Offensively, Dak Prescott runs a top-10 unit with the best WR trio in CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Ryan Flournoy, and OC Klayton Adams has given Dallas a creative, top-notch rushing attack.
The new concern is Tyler Smith’s injury on the offensive line. Smith is the best man on this line, and his absence makes this a below-average line to start the season, and Dallas faces some tough opponents without him.
There are dreams of Super Bowl hopes in Dallas, but unless the defenses leaps from last to above average, the offense still needs to show it can be top five and not just top 10.
I think this takes some time — to get healthy and to gel with the new defensive talent and scheme — so I actually prefer the playoff version of the Cowboys to the regular season one.
I don't need median outcomes here; I want the long-tail upside.
The bet: Cowboys to win the NFC (+1300 at BetRivers)
Over/Under Verdict: Over 9.5 (Pass0
Tier III — Last Year's Results Speak for Themselves
9. New England Patriots
It's hard to run it back after losing a Super Bowl.
Regression comes for everyone, and the Patriots played an outrageously soft schedule last year while going 8-3 in one-score games. Super Bowl losers are 16-6 to the under in the past 22 seasons, and only one Super Bowl loser has made it back to the final game since 1993.
Still, New England got significantly better on paper. The offense adds A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs, and Alijah Vera-Tucker and was already ranked third in DVOA.
The defensive metrics were not the best last year after the team added a ton of veteran help, but they didn't get healthy until late in the season — and we saw how that carried New England to the Super Bowl, once they did.
Even with some Patriots skepticism, I still have this as the best team in the division with my Bills disbelief.
The AFC East is a perfect spot to play an exact outcome since there's a top two and a bottom two. An exact outcome of Patriots, Bills, Jets, Dolphins pays out at +450 (HardRock) and looks worth the escalator.
The bet: Patriots to win the AFC East (+145 at FanDuel)
Over/Under Verdict: Over 9.5 (Pass)
8. Chicago Bears
Ben Johnson called his own team the top regression candidate in football — he's right.
The Bears led the league with a +22 turnover margin last year after leading the NFL in both takeaways and fewest turnovers—a massive fluke that historically regresses back to around +3, so a full turnover per game fewer.
Johnson's offense will be great with Caleb Williams taking a leap in pocket management and deep ball. Chicago also features a top-10 offensive line protecting a loaded weapons group featuring Colston Loveland, Luther Burden, and Rome Odunze.
The problem is still the defense.
Dennis Allen needs talent in the secondary for his system to work, and it looked like Chicago would have a healthier go of it, but already Coby Bryant and Kyler Gordon are on IR to start the season.
Chicago looks like it'll be in high-scoring shootouts all year, making its late-season divisional gauntlet a nightmare. That makes for a fun and entertaining season, but a tough investment for futures bettors.
The bet: Colston Loveland TE TDs leader (+1100 at DraftKings) and over 69.5 receptions
Over/Under Verdict: Under 9.5 (Pass)
7. Philadelphia Eagles
Every year it's something new with Nick Sirianni.
Vic Fangio’s defense is loaded. Zack Baun and Jihaad Campbell are unique pass coverage weapons at linebacker, Jalen Carter is healthy up front again with the usual cadre of pass rushers, and now Riq Woolen adds a wildcard factor to Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.
The defense gives Philadelphia a stable floor, but the offense is a massive question mark under new OC Sean Mannion.
Can the Eagles revive a fading run game? Can DeVonta Smith handle WR1 duties without A.J. Brown?
I have their weapons dropping from 1st to 10th. And what about Jalen Hurts in yet another new offensive scheme — can he really throw over the middle of the field and make all of this work?
I'll be looking for opportunities to fade the Eagles, but an easy start to the schedule makes me hesitant.
For now, I'm just betting on their elite offensive linemen to get awards.
Lane Johnson has made First or Second Team All Pro at right tackle his last four healthy seasons, and the two guys he lost to, Tristan Wirfs and Penei Sewell, have since moved to left tackle.
The bet: Lane Johnson First Team All-Pro (+500 at FanDuel), along with Chiefs C Creed Humphrey (+300) and Ravens C Kyle Hamilton (+320)
Over/Under Verdict: Under 10.5 (Pass)
6. Houston Texans
There might not be a better defense on the planet than DeMeco Ryans' Texans.
Houston ranked top-two in DVOA against both the run and pass, and the Texans boast elite talent at the two most important defensive positions: edge rusher and corner.
Will Anderson is the centerpiece of the defense and a bullseye for DPOY, but now Jadeveon Clowney joins Danielle Hunter next to Anderson, and Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter lead a talent secondary. This is my No. 1 ranked defense, and it was honestly a pretty easy choice.
The issue is the offense.
Houston averaged 20th in DVOA the last three years, which is both not as bad as it seems but also not good enough. The offense lacks weapons outside of Nico Collins (my favorite pick for OPOY at +4000), and I'm starting to lose some belief in C.J. Stroud, especially with an offensive line the team still hasn't figured out.
If the QB, run game, and line play can even hit B+ status this season, Houston suddenly leaps to second in my power rankings and AFC favorite because the defense is that good.
The bet: Will Anderson, Defensive Player of the Year (+750)
Over/Under Verdict: Over 9.5 (Lean)
Tier II — SoFi or Bust
5. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are all about the health of their stars.
When Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Mike Evans, Nick Bosa, and Fred Warner are healthy, this is a top-five team — and they're healthy right now entering the new season.
Brock Purdy runs Kyle Shanahan's system flawlessly, keeping the floor incredibly high. This offense has finished top six in DVOA in five of the last six season outside of one disastrous injury season when it finished "only" 9th.
The defense has more question marks, especially in the secondary, but the healthy return of Warner and Bosa goes a long way under new DC Raheem Morris.
The big problem is this team never stays healthy. The 49ers rank top-10 in adjusted games lost to injury in 12 of the last 13 seasons.
San Francisco might actually be underrated game-to-game right now while healthy, and that's why they're top five in these power rankings, but the Niners are also a fade in the futures market because they cannot survive a 20-game season intact.
The bet: Trent Williams Protector of the Year (7% on prediction markets)
Over/Under Verdict: Under 10.5 (Pass)
4. Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson is coming off a poor season, but just about every worry or statistical concern can be explained away by his leg injuries all season.
In his four healthy seasons, Jackson has two MVPs and a runner-up finish. I am not writing him off on one bad year.
Baltimore remade its interior offensive line, and new OC Declan Doyle looks like a perfect fit for this offense, especially while Derrick Henry is still doing his thing.
The defense under Jesse Minter could also be a top-five unit. Getting Nnamdi Madubuike back is huge, along with the additions of veterans Calais Campbell and Trey Hendrickson, and letting Minter unleash Kyle Hamilton is a terrifying proposition in the secondary.
Baltimore has a soft opening schedule and looks as good as anyone in the AFC. At these MVP prices, Lamar is an automatic buy for me.
The bet: Lamar Jackson to win MVP (+1100), along with Patrick Mahomes (+1700 at FanDuel)
Over/Under Verdict: Over 10.5 (Lean)
3. Kansas City Chiefs
Like the Ravens, I'm simply not ready to bury the Chiefs after one bad season where Patrick Mahomes got hurt and they still finished 15th overall in DVOA with a top-eight offense before the injury.
The offense has been good but not elite for three years, but the offensive line looks improved and Kenneth Walker raises the ceiling of this offense immensely with his explosive ability. Look at what Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley did in recent years, adding an elite back to an already good offense.
The receivers are still lackluster, but the scheme can only improve with OC Eric Bieniemy back in place of Matt Nagy.
Steve Spagnuolo will figure out the defense. Kansas City replaces its top two corners but Spags always gets this unit rolling.
The Chiefs also draw a favorable third-place schedule with a nice cushy start as Mahomes returns from injury, setting the Chiefs up for a fast start. They're an easy division bet heading into the season with the Broncos and Chargers facing tough schedules early.
The bets: Chiefs to win the AFC West (+180 at Caesars/BetMGM), Patrick Mahomes MVP (+1700)
Over/Under Verdict: Over 10.5 (Lean)
2. Seattle Seahawks
It is incredibly hard to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Among many other obvious reasons, it's just hard to keep the roster together and keep everyone healthy.
Seattle lost some key pieces in Kenneth Walker, Boye Mafe, Riq Woolen, and Coby Bryant, and now the strength of this team, its secondary, is also dealing with multiple injuries on top of those absences before the season begins.
Mike Macdonald is the best defensive play caller in the world and I'm not worried about this unit, but even finishing third or fifth instead of No. 1 makes a difference and puts the rest of the team in more difficult game scripts.
Offensively, losing Klint Kubiak hurts.
Seattle is heavily reliant on the run game to set the tone, but without Walker or Zach Charbonnet for now, the Seahawks are leaning entirely on rookie Jadarian Price, who only even saw double-digit carries 10 times in a three-year college career with a max of 15.
What does this offense look like without its usual rushing attack? Does the line play hold up without Kubiak, and will Sam Darnold be as successful if the rest of the ecosystem around him isn't as strong as last year?
I respect the champs — but I can't invest in their futures until we see answers under new OC Brian Fleury.
The bet: Jadarian Price Under 799.5 rushing yards (DraftKings)
Over/Under Verdict: Under 10.5 (Pass)
Tier I — The Target is on Your Back
1. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are so clearly No. 1 in any real Power Rankings that I barely even need to make the case.
They had the No. 1 rushing and passing offense last year along with a top-five defense, and now they’ve added Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, Trent McDuffie, and Jaylen Watson. The roster is terrifying and easily the best in the league, with Sean McVay pulling all the strings.
Still, it's tough to run it back.
The offense can really only get worse from last year, especially the outlier elite rushing attack, and this offense ranked just 7th-to-10th in DVOA in four of the five previous years — a steep drop from outlier No. 1.
I also remain a bit unconvinced at how Garrett will fit into a new role after thriving in Jim Schwartz's wide-nine scheme, and McDuffie and Watson were already maximized under Steve Spagnuolo so a new system could be a challenge.
L.A.'s special teams are a serious flaw, and McVay's lack of aggression can sometimes cost the team in-game.
Still, the talent here is overwhelming and the Rams are in a tier of their own at the top, even with a brutal schedule to start the season.
What's interesting is that the Rams actually rank closer to my No. 2 or 3 team entering the season last year, so the tier gap is less about how awesome the Rams are as much as how there's no true contender to the throne just yet.
I had eight teams that entered the season last fall with a better power rating than my No. 2 team this year. That tier of Seahawks, Chiefs, Ravens, and 49ers would typically be more like 6th-to-10th-best, not 2nd-to-5th.
On the flip side, the gap to the next 10 or so teams is much smaller than usual.
The last four years, I typically had around 7-to-10 teams power rated within one touchdown of my top team entering the season. This year I've got a whopping 17 teams within a touchdown of the Rams — over half the league, all the way down to the Colts and Steelers.
Heavy is the head that wears the expectations crown, and these teams can hang with the Rams any given Sunday.
The Rams enter the season as a consensus +500 favorite to win the Super Bowl.
No preseason Super Bowl favorite at +500 or shorter has won it all since the 1995 Cowboys — NFL teams are a combined 0-for-22 the last three decades trying to effectively go wire-to-wire and win it all.
I will be looking for a spot to fade the Rams later in the year when their price peaks.
The bet: Rams 3rd in the NFC West (+400 at BetMGM)
Over/Under Verdict: Under 11.5 (Lean)
