Chiefs vs. Jaguars Odds: Week 1’s Biggest Sharps vs. Squares NFL Matchup

Chiefs vs. Jaguars Odds: Week 1’s Biggest Sharps vs. Squares NFL Matchup article feature image

Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jacksonville Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette

  • Sunday's Chiefs vs. Jaguars (1 p.m. ET, CBS) matchup is setting up to be the biggest sharps-vs.-squares matchup of NFL Week 1.
  • We examine how sharp money has moved this line since opening, as well as the specific number that pros are betting.

Sharps bet numbers. Casual bettors bet on the best/most popular teams — usually favorites — no matter the line.

It’s much more fun to root for good teams to play well than to hope the league’s worst can keep games close enough to cover the spread, even if the underdogs in these matchups represent the valuable side.

This is often magnified in Week 1 as NFL bettors have an entire offseason to bet on these games, and often place wagers based on last season’s results.

With this in mind, it’s not surprising to see Sunday’s Chiefs vs. Jaguars matchup setting up as the opening week’s biggest disagreement between sharp and square bettors.

Here’s how the Chiefs vs. Jaguars line has moved since opening, and at exactly what number the pros are betting.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars Sharp Report

Kansas City opened as a 4.5-point road favorite against Jacksonville back in April and the majority of bettors have spent the entire summer laying the points.

Seventy-three percent of all tickets wagered on the spread have taken the Chiefs, making KC the third-most popular bet of Week 1.

Despite the one-sided action, the line has dropped a full point to -3.5 across the market.

While the overwhelming majority of bettors are already on Kansas City, the actual money wagered is much more balanced with 46% landing on Jacksonville.

And according to Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, that 46% includes heavy money from professionals.

A combined 11 Steam and Reverse Line Moves have been triggered on the Jaguars, marking 11 instances in which sharp betting action forced oddsmakers to adjust this point spread across the market.

Interestingly, each one of these moves came at Jacksonville +4 or better, revealing that pros see value in that number, but not when this number dips to 3.5.

In fact, this line has hit the current number multiple times before steady KC action pushed it back up to +4, only to be hit again by sharps.

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