The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants will meet in the Week 1 edition of Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Cowboys are 2.5-point favorites over the Giants on the spread (Cowboys -2.5), with the over/under set at 48.5 total points. Dallas is a -154 moneyline favorite to win outright, while New York is priced as a +130 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Cowboys vs Giants predictions in my Sunday Night Football preview.
Cowboys vs Giants Prediction
- Cowboys vs Giants pick: Under 48.5 (-115)
My Cowboys vs Giants best bet is on the total to stay under 48.5 points, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Cowboys vs Giants Odds
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -124 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | -158 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +102 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | +134 |
Cowboys vs Giants Sunday Night Football Preview
Dallas Cowboys Betting Preview: Defensive Improvements
One of the biggest storylines headed into the season for the Cowboys is the potentially seismic schematic upgrade on the defensive side of the ball.
Bringing in Christian Parker from the Fangio tree is a game-changer, especially compared to last season with Matt Eberflus and his outdated approach and roster that didn't even fit his philosophy.
With Parker (who has plenty of familiarity with Jaxson Dart coming from Philadelphia) calling the shots and an infusion of young talent, this unit could easily approach league average, which would make Dallas a true contender in the NFC. For what it's worth, my colleague Brandon Anderson agrees, ranking the Cowboys 16th in his preseason NFL defense rankings.
Offensively, the Cowboys have one of the more potent attacks in the league.
However, they may have a potential weak link on the left side of their offensive line with star left guard Tyler Smith expected to miss 4-6 weeks. T.J. Bass is a serviceable depth piece, but he is certainly not Smith. Tyler Guyton is also still trying to find his footing at left tackle, especially in terms of pass protection and now won't have Smith to lean on.
Among 32 tackles with at least 500 pass blocking snaps in 2025, PFF ranked Guyton dead last in protection. Additionally, right tackle Terence Steele (who actually graded out worse than Guyton in pass blocking) is known as a much stronger run blocker.
Ultimately, that could create a myriad of problems against this vaunted New York pass rush on known passing downs for Dak Prescott, who didn't play in the preseason, which has been correlated in the past with a decrease in production right out of the gates.
Because of that vulnerability in pass protection, I expect the Cowboys to lean a little bit more on the ground game against a shaky New York run defense, which would keep the clock moving.
For what it's worth, Prescott absolutely owns this division — with a 32-15 against the spread (ATS) mark vs. the NFC East and 14-3 straight up (SU) record vs. the Giants in his career.
New York Giants Betting Preview: Can Dart Carry NY?
I also believe the Giants upgraded schematically on the defensive side of the ball with the hiring of new coordinator Dennard Wilson.
If Dallas finds themselves in third-and-long situations, this Giants front will get them off the field more times than not against a potentially rusty Prescott.
While I thought Harbaugh made a shrewd move brining in Wilson as DC, I'm not really sure why he decided to bring in Matt Nagy as his offensive coordinator. That's an incredibly underwhelming hire.
Plus, I'm not really scared of this Giants wide-receiver room with Darnell Mooney, a rookie and a likely less than 100% Malik Nabers, so I'm not sure they can fully take advantage of any of holes in the Dallas secondary.
Against a newly competent, Fangio-style Dallas defense that keeps everything in front of them, I don't see the Giants generating many explosive plays. They are going to have to lean on Dart's legs and the ground game to methodically move the ball down the field.
And it's not like New York is trotting out one of the league's top offensive lines with potential exploitable pieces everywhere outside of Andrew Thomas at left tackle.
Cowboys vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
At 48.5, this total is just too high for a Week 1 divisional matchup with both defenses having winnable matchups up front, which should lead to some drive-killing negative plays.
Dallas may increase its run rate to protect the left side of its line against a fierce Giants pass rush.
And on the other side, I don't have much faith in Matt Nagy and Jaxson Dart lighting up the scoreboard against Christian Parker’s newly revamped defense.
Give me the under, which has generally ruled the day in Week 1 due to fewer QB reps in the preseason and some of the league-wide defensive changes.
Headed into Sunday, unders have hit at a 55.5% clip in the opening week, including a whopping 37-13 (74%) over the past four seasons, staying under the closing total by almost 4.5 points per game on average.
From a side perspective, I'd lean Dallas at under a field goal, but didn't play anything on that front.
Pick: Under 48.5 (-115)
