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CJ Stroud Enters MVP Race, Puts a Stranglehold on Offensive Rookie of the Year Trophy

CJ Stroud Enters MVP Race, Puts a Stranglehold on Offensive Rookie of the Year Trophy article feature image

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CJ Stroud has entered the MVP race and solidified his lead in the Offensive Rookie of the Year marketplace with a tactful win over the Bengals on Sunday.

Stroud has moved up from being off-the-board during the preseason to No. 6 overall on the NFL MVP odds board, according to FanDuel. The Texans rookie is behind only Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow in that race.

And while Stroud had been as short as -145 earlier this month for Rookie of the Year, two massive wins have sent those odds spiraling to a mark of -2000. That's an implied probability increase of over 36% in just two weeks.

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First, a ridiculous come-from-behind win over the Bucs with seconds remaining sent his odds barreling to -550 before the Bengals game.

Then, he beat a team that's been in the AFC Championship Game the last two seasons — and did so on the road, no less — by leading throughout to send his Rookie of the Year odds to the current mark.

And now, he's even an MVP candidate. Due to the nature of the award — which rewards wins, flashy stats and narrative — Stroud even leads 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy and Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who have far better expected points added per play + completion percentage over expected (EPA/play + CPOE) marks than Stroud does.

EPA/play + CPOE is the single most important statistic in determining the NFL MVP market.

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