Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
Each week of the season, I’ll give my two favorites to throw a pick.
In 2025, my record was 20-16 for +7.5U. In 2024, I was able to finish at 19-17 for +4.2U. Part of the strategy is finding mispriced INT prices, especially at plus odds.
Here are my two favorite NFL interception props for Week 1.
NFL Interception Props for Week 1
- Joe Burrow to Throw an Interception (+145; bet365)
- Bryce Young to Throw an Interception (+120; bet365)
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Joe Burrow to Throw an Interception (+145)
This may be an uneasy one for some bettors when you look at recent box scores because Bengals QB Joe Burrow hasn’t been throwing a lot of interceptions.
Over the last two seasons (25 games), Burrow has only thrown 14 interceptions, with those picks coming in just 11 of those games. Still, I think Burrow’s interception prop is being priced as if the Bengals are facing a lowly team like the Jets or Titans.
This matchup with the Buccaneers could be a tougher matchup than we think. The passing frequency from Burrow in this one could be elevated by a couple of factors.
One, the Bengals' run game may struggle to be efficient if they can’t find a way to block Bucs DT Vita Vea.
Two, the Bucs offense should still be able to move the ball and score on the Cincy defense, which should make Burrow and the Bengals offense have to try and keep pace offensively.
The Bucs finished last year as a bottom-five team in pressure rate per dropback but under head coach Todd Bowles, they still blitzed at the fourth-highest rate. I’m expecting the pressure rates to improve in 2026 with the addition of LB Rueben Bain Jr. and return of DE Calijah Kancey.
Like most quarterbacks, Burrow’s turnover-worthy play rate tends to see a jump when seeing pressure and getting blitzed. If the Bucs can get some decent pressure off the line, I expect Burrow to put up a couple TWPs that should give us an opportunity to cash an interception bet.
Bryce Young to Throw an Interception (+120)
I know the Panthers were a feel-good story last year as they rallied to win the NFC South — but I’m not convinced those vibes will carry over to 2026.
The offensive line has injury issues, and unless quarterback Bryce Young grew six inches taller over the offseason, he’s still going to struggle at times with defensive pressure. With that in mind, let’s take him to throw an interception against the Bears in Week 1.
Young has thrown 36 interceptions in 46 career games; despite last year’s progression, he still ended up having 11 INTs in 16 games.
His turnover-worthy play rate was the highest when he was blitzed. Last season under defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, the Bears blitzed at the 10th-highest rate, which I think could affect Young’s ability to get the ball downfield.
Another factor to consider is the Bears defense, which led the NFL with 23 interceptions last season. Now, I obviously expect a regression from that as turnovers rarely carry over year over year, but even if the Bears defend the pass at league average, Young shouldn’t be at plus odds to throw an interception.
I’ll take my chance on Young to throw a pick in Week 1, and for what it’s worth, he’s thrown at least two interceptions in each Week 1 of his career (3).
