Week 1 of the NFL season is finally upon us, and our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has locked in some NFL prop bets for Sunday featuring picks for Buccaneers vs. Bengals, Bears vs. Panthers, Jets vs. Titans, and more.
Let's get into his NFL Week 1 player props for Sunday, September 13.
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NFL Player Props Week 1
- Andrei Iosivas Under 1.5 Receptions (-114, FanDuel)
- Braelon Allen (Temu Derrick Henry) Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-113, FanDuel)
- D’Andre Swift Under 14.5 Rush Attempts (-102, FanDuel)
- Daniel Jones Over 21.5 Pass Completions (-118, DraftKings)
Andrei Iosivas Receptions
I’ve considered Andrei Iosivas a sneaky touchdown-props" target="_blank" rel="noopener">anytime touchdown bet over the last couple of seasons, but he’s a player I’m looking to fade in Week 1 based on a few things that could be different this year.
The Bengals should still be very pass heavy, but they could be a bit more balanced if their defense improves. They may also use more TE-heavy personnel and take more snaps under center, which is especially interesting because Iosivas’ target rate absolutely cratered to just 5% on under-center snaps last year.
The Bucs also tend to blitz at a high rate under Todd Bowles, and Iosivas' target rate dropped to just 8% against the blitz.
I was also really impressed with fourth-round rookie Colbie Young, who may not factor in right away but could become a threat to Iosivas’ role as the season goes on.
I’m projecting this closer to 1.4 receptions with around a 59% chance to stay under 1.5. I wouldn’t fade Iosivas' yardage since he tends to get downfield or end-zone targets, so receptions is the specific market I want to attack.
It’s a wide range of outcomes on a low prop, but these are exactly the types of Week 1 spots I love, where digging into personnel changes, potential scheme shifts, camp/preseason and recent news can give us an edge before we just wait around for a week of data to tell us what changed.
Braelon Allen Rushing Yards
The Toilet Bowl is one of the trickier games to cap this week, but this is the play I kept coming back to. It’s not really a math-driven bet as much as a “Week 1 has a ton of uncertainty and I think this spot benefits from it” type of play.
Braelon Allen missed most of last season with an MCL injury, but he’s 100% healthy now and looked sharp in camp and limited preseason action. He reportedly got up to around 250 pounds in June while saying he had added muscle and was at the lowest body-fat percentage of his career.
So, he might be the closest thing we have to Derrick Henry, and his role is similar in that he’s primarily an early-down/short-yardage hammer.
Breece Hall is still the Jets' clear lead back and should be healthy, but he missed a lot of camp with a groin injury, so there could be more spots than usual where the Jets give him a breather.
The other thing I like is game script. The Jets are constantly playing from behind, which usually caps Allen’s workload, but this is one of the rare spots where the game is closer to a coin flip.
I have the Jets projected to play with the lead at a whopping 21% higher rate than they did last season, which quietly gives Allen more paths to extra carries.
Titans LB Cedric Gray is also out, which is a meaningful loss for their run defense.
My cautious projection has Allen around 19 rushing yards with roughly a 55% chance to clear 17.5, but this is one of those Week 1 spots where I think the upside is higher than the raw projection suggests.
That’s also why I’d rather attack his 20+ rushing-yard market than settle for 15+ on prediction markets.
D’Andre Swift Rush Attempts
D’Andre Swift only cleared this number in 4 of 15 regular-season games with Kyle Monangai active last year. That makes sense given how their roles fit together.
Swift is still the lead back and clear passing-down option, but Monangai carved out a real 10-11 carry role of his own, and that alone puts a pretty natural cap on Swift’s upside in this market.
Both were dealing with injuries heading into Week 1, with Monangai missing a ton of time with a knee issue but now fully cleared, while Swift only missed a few practices with what were believed to be cramps. He should be 100%, but if that was even partially conditioning-related, I could see Chicago being a little more cautious with his workload out of the gate.
The Bears are also taking a ton of action but remain stuck at -3, and I think Carolina can keep this game closer than people expect and bleed enough clock to limit Chicago’s total play volume.
This isn’t a bet against Swift’s rushing ability. I’m not interested in fading his yardage because he can absolutely rip off a couple long runs, but those don’t really hurt this under the way you’d think.
A 40-yard run is still just one carry, and it may even lead to him checking out for a breather right after.
The other sneaky angle is Ben Johnson.
Spamming direct carries to one back all game really isn’t his style. The Bears averaged 1.5 designed WR carries per game last season — more than double the league average — and I’d expect that to continue with Luther Burden, Kalif Raymond and even Zavion Thomas all capable of stealing a couple touches.
If you’ve ever had an over on a Johnson lead back’s rush attempts, you know exactly how tilting those plays can be.
I’m projecting Swift closer to 13.9 attempts with around a 59% chance to stay under 14.5. This is definitely game-script dependent, so if you think Chicago blows Carolina out, I’d stay away.
I think Carolina keeps it close enough to lock this in.
Daniel Jones Completions
Daniel Jones is coming off a season-ending Achilles tear, which obviously adds some risk when you’re betting him in Week 1, but I actually think the injury could create some sneaky value in this market.
I’d expect him to be less willing to scramble than usual, and Steichen may lean more on quick-hitting throws underneath to get the ball out of his hands before pressure arrives while Jones works his way back.
He cleared this in 50% of the games he finished last season, and that was with Indy playing in a bunch of blowouts where he either didn’t have to throw much or barely played in the fourth quarter.
This could be one of the rarer spots where a Jones-led Colts team is actually playing from behind.
The matchup also sets up well enough for volume. Baltimore struggled against the pass last season and will be installing a new scheme under head coach Jesse Minter. Jones already saw that defense in Week 7 against the Chargers and went 23-of-34 for 288 yards and two TDs.
If Alec Pierce is less than 100%, he could be used more as a downfield decoy while Josh Downs, Tyler Warren and newly acquired Keenan Allen soak up underneath targets.
I’d put this closer to 22.5 completions with around a 60% chance he clears 21.5.
There’s definitely a wider range of outcomes coming off the Achilles, but that uncertainty is also part of why I think this is a sneaky Week 1 angle.
