We're two games into the NFL season, and now we embark on my weekly player props piece. Last season, I went 39-27 (59.1%) and 42-19 (68.9%) in 2024 for an overall success rate of 63.8% on my weekly props pieces.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 1, including picks for Buccaneers vs Bengals, Browns vs Jaguars, and more.
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NFL Player Props — Week 1
- Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 Interceptions (+100 at bet365)
- Deshaun Watson Under 19.5 Rush Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Buccaneers vs Bengals Player Prop: Baker Mayfield Interceptions
Baker Mayfield was on the luckier side of interceptions last year, leading the league with 28 turnover worthy plays but getting picked just 11 times. League-wide, the INT/TWP rate was 54.8% so his 11/28 ratio is around 15% lower than league average.
A QB's raw INT% is notoriously noisy year to year, so the fact that his INT% dipped from 2.7% over his career and 2.8% in 2024 down to 2.0% in 2025 is more a reflection of luck given the number of times he should have been picked (north of 15 times) than any real reduction in his true interception rate.
Baker's matchup against the Bengals should also lead to a neutral-to-positive environment for picks, as Cincinnati ranked mid-pack last year in both passes defended and raw interceptions, showing no real luck component.
The Bengals should also be vastly improved on defense, adding Dexter Lawrence II at defensive tackle while upgrading from Geno Stone at safety to Bryan Cook, who comes over from Kansas City after a strong 2025.
Mayfield has averaged 0.725 INT/game in his three years with Tampa Bay despite being a bit on the lucky side overall.
I'm projecting him for 32 pass attempts and north of 0.8 projected interceptions, so I love getting this at anywhere near even-money.
Pick: Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 Interceptions (+100)
Browns vs Jaguars Player Prop: Deshaun Watson Rush Yards
Deshaun Watson is coming off a missed season with an Achilles tear that he re-tore before being fully rehabbed. I doubt Cleveland has many plans to give him designed runs at all, outside of the odd QB sneak.
That means the majority of his rushing would come from QB scrambles. The small sample size we have shows there's a meaningful 10% or more (up to 30%-40%) dock in scrambling yards per carry in QBs and older RBs.
With no injury, I'd be projecting Watson at around 20.5 yards on average, which is a slight decline from his already declining rushing yards per game in the three years prior to his injury, and that's potentially a bit generous.
Jacksonville graded out about average against QB scrambles last year, and allowed just 20 yards to all other QB runs (32 on sneaks + designed runs, -12 on kneel downs). That means we're largely grading Watson's scrambling here both from the offensive and defensive perspective.
Add in the injury dock to his yards per carry and I'm getting his mean at around 19.0 yards, but more importantly, his median around 16.5 yards — and that doesn't include any small chance he's benched or injured.
With no injury or benching, I'd price under 19.5 yards at -145. So, -115 at DraftKings is good value.
I'm also fine with under 18.5 yards at Caesars (-110), but I wouldn't go past the -115 price point if all you can get is 18.5 yards.
Picks: Deshaun Watson Under 19.5 Rush Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Dr Nick's Week 1 Prop Bets
- Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 Interceptions (+100 at bet365)
- Deshaun Watson Under 19.5 Rush Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
