We're closing out Week 8 with a +950 parlay on Monday Night Football between the Washington Commanders and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Using PRO Systems and sharp insights from PRO Report, we’ve identified a strong, three-pick SGP by combining two player prop bets and the spread.
PRO Projections analyzed the matchup in depth and uncovered two player props that show clear value, while our systems and expert consensus lean toward betting the spread.
Let’s break down each play and see how they mesh together in Monday night's high-value parlay.
Commanders vs Chiefs Parlay: +950 SGP Prediction for Monday Night Football
Kansas City's the second-largest favorite of Week 8 (-11.5), alongside a total of 47.5.
The first parlay leg is taking the Commanders to cover the +11.5. According to PRO Projections, the fair spread should be closer to +9.6 for Washington.
Adding further confidence is a notable trend we track in Bet Labs, called “Dogs After Blowout.” This trend highlights that teams coming off a blowout loss (20+ points) and getting at least +3 points against the spread in their next game cover nearly 57% of the time. The Commanders are coming off a lopsided 22-point defeat, so this trend supports backing Washington +11.5 on Monday night.
Switching to player props, the first value pick is Jaylin Lane, Washington’s receiver, going over 1.5 catches at plus money. PRO Projections forecast Lane, off a three-catch game for 1.80, which translates to a 12.9% edge over the market.
Finally, consider Xavier Worthy of the Chiefs under 3.5 receptions at +130 odds. With PRO’s forecast pegging his catch total right around 3.5, the under presents a slightly better value given the odds offered.
Putting these three picks together—the Commanders +11.5 spread, Jaylin Lane over 1.5 receptions, and Xavier Worthy under 3.5 receptions—creates a correlated parlay priced at +950.
