The San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams will square off in Melbourne, Australia at 8:35 p.m. ET tonight. Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has locked in his top betting predictions for this special Thursday Night Football matchup.
Let's dive into the data-driven breakdown of his NFL Australia Game props and picks.
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NFL Australia Game Props
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 8:35 p.m. | |
| 8:35 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Brock Purdy Player Prop
Brock Purdy Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
For a few years now, I’ve been trying to remind people that Purdy has more rushing upside than the market gives him credit for. He has incredible burst — his 1.55-second 10-yard split is elite and 90th+ percentile among QBs.
Purdy tends to play within structure and usually uses that burst to escape pressure and buy time rather than immediately take off and run. It’s a huge reason why his 9.2% pressure-to-sack rate was the lowest among all qualified QBs last season. He’s one of — if not the toughest — QB in the league to sack.
However, Purdy has mentioned that he wants to use his legs a bit more this season to keep the chains moving, so I think this is a sneaky Week 1 market to invest in.
There are also several factors that could elevate his scramble rate tonight.
The Rams should be able to generate even more pressure with Myles Garrett now on the team, which could force Purdy out of the pocket at a higher rate. More pressure isn’t necessarily a bad thing for this prop given how good Purdy is at avoiding sacks and extending plays.
The 49ers also have a QB sneak play that tends to pick up 2-3 yards at a time. They were a bit more cautious using it with Purdy last season due to his toe injury, but we could see 1-2 of those tonight. Those are valuable hidden yards when we only need 18.
There are some game-script factors working in our favor as well. As 3.5-point underdogs, there’s a lower chance Purdy is taking kneels at the end of the game for negative yardage.
If the 49ers are playing from behind, that should also increase his dropback volume and create more potential scramble opportunities.
I have Purdy closer to a 58% chance to clear 17.5 rushing yards, but this is one of those Week 1 props where I think he may have even more upside than I’m accounting for in my raw projections given his stated intention to run more.
Pick: Brock Purdy Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Check out the rest of our 49ers vs Rams coverage!
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Myles Garrett Prop Bet
Myles Garrett Under 3.5 Tackles + Assists (-152)
It might sound crazy to lay -152 fading the best defender on the planet, and maybe it is crazy. But I’m showing quite a bit of value here, and once I dug into the matchup it made a lot of sense.
As I mentioned in my Brock Purdy rushing prop earlier, he was the toughest QB to sack when pressured last season, with just a 9.2% pressure-to-sack rate. His quick burst allows him to escape pressure and avoid sacks, which is a big reason the 49ers tend to provide opposing EDGE rushers with fewer tackles than your average offense.
Garrett cleared 3.5 tackles + assists in 53% of his games last season, and that was during a year in which he had 23 (!) sacks.
The split that really stood out: in the six games where Garrett recorded 1.5+ sacks, he cleared this number every time. But in games where he had one sack or fewer, he cleared 3.5 tackles + assists just 27% of the time.
That makes sense. A lot of Garrett’s tackle upside comes from actually finishing pressures with sacks, and I think he’s much more likely to only get one sack or fewer tonight against Purdy.
There’s also a chance the Rams limit Garrett’s snaps somewhat after he missed practice time over the last couple of weeks with a swollen knee.
I have Garrett closer to -200 to stay Under 3.5 tackles + assists, so even at -152 I��m showing solid value.
This also correlates nicely with my Purdy Over rushing yards prop. If Purdy is escaping Garrett and turning pressure into scramble yards instead of sacks/tackles, both bets can benefit from the same outcome.
For sites like PrizePicks where you have to play 2+ props, you could pair Purdy Over 18.5 rushing yards with Garrett Under 0.75 sacks. I like that less than Garrett Under 3.5 tackles + assists, but they aren’t offering the tackle under.
