Monday Night Football Prop Bets, Picks: Public All in on Alvin Kamara in Dolphins vs. Saints
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Saints RB Alvin Kamara
- The prop market is hot for Monday night's NFL matchup between the Dolphins and Saints.
- In particular, the market is hot for Saints running back Alvin Kamara, who bettors are expecting to have a big day.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of the props market for tonight's key primetime game.
Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints Odds
|Date||Monday, Dec. 27|
|Time||8:15 p.m. ET|
The loser of this game between two fringe playoff teams will effectively be knocked out of the postseason hunt.
So it’s a shame that the pandemic has reared its ugly head to heavily affect this contest.
The Saints will be missing several key players on Monday, including starting quarterback Taysom Hill and backup Trevor Siemian.
The odds promptly moved from Saints -3 to Saints +3 in the aftermath of the news. The moneyline moved from roughly -165 to +130 for the Saints and about vice versa for the Dolphins.
As a result of the absences, the Dolphins spread and moneyline have gotten hammered. About 78% of the money is on the Dolphins to win and roughly 67% of the money is on the Dolphins to cover.
The public, however, is going with the other team for player props. Alvin Kamara has the top three most-wagered on props for Monday Night Football.
Dolphins vs. Saints Most Popular NFL Player Props for Monday Night Football
Odds and data are according to BetMGM
- Alvin Kamara to score the first touchdown of the game (+550)
- Alvin Kamara to score two or more touchdowns (+400)
- Alvin Kamara to score a touchdown at any time (-115)
I don’t usually vibe with touchdown props on account of their variability. They also typically have negative expected value.
That’s especially true about touchdown props that are contingent on time or quantity. Betting Kamara to score the first touchdown in this contest is so dependent on if the Saints receive the ball first and other elements of luck that are impossible to quantify. So avoid Monday’s most popular prop.
Yes, Kamara is going to wrack up the touches on Monday. The Saints have legitimately no other form of offense and, by all metrics, third-string quarterback Ian Book — thrust into this game due to the Saints’ COVID issues — is a terrible prospect. But betting on Kamara to score twice, at that 4-1 price, doesn’t have much longterm value.
If you’re confident that Kamara is going to touch the ball 25-to-30 times and be the only thing humming for the Saints’ offense, his touchdown at any time prop is fair game.
He’s scored in seven of his 10 games this season, including five of his last six. That implies that his -115 any time TD prop should be priced somewhere closer to -235.