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The New Orleans Saints host the Atlanta Falcons tonight in an NFC South showdown on Monday Night Football. Kickoff from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, La., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. MNF will broadcast on ESPN.
The Saints are 1.5-point favorites over the Falcons on the spread (Saints -1.5), with an over/under of 47.5 points. The Saints are -118 favorites and the Falcons are +100 underdogs on the moneyline.
Continue below for our Falcons vs Saints picks for Monday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, over/under, and anytime touchdown props.
Falcons vs Saints Picks, Props
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 8:15 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Falcons vs Saints Odds
- Falcons vs Saints Moneyline: Falcons +100, Saints -118
- Falcons vs Saints Total: 47.5 (-110/-110)
- Falcons vs Saints Spread: Falcons +1.5 (-110), Saints -1.5 (-110)
MNF odds via FanDuel are subject to change
Falcons vs Saints Spread Prediction
The Saints' rush defense is in for a long night. They've allowed 4.7 yards per carry, which ranks 27th in the NFL, and they are 29th defending zone runs.
The Falcons have the third-best zone rushing offense in football and feature the best running back in the game as
superstar Bijan Robinson is a master of the outside zone running scheme. He should build on his rushing success rate (60.6%). That mark ranks him as the third-best runner in terms of success rate through three games.
I have to back the underdogt. The Falcons will gash the Saints' run defense en route to sustaining drives more often than not.
Michael Penix Jr. will comfortably enjoy a play-action focused gameplan under head coach Kevin Stefanski that will lead the Falcons to their second consecutive road win.
Pick: Falcons +1.5 (-110)
Falcons vs Saints Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
The Saints and Falcons have two of the more surprising – in a good way – offenses in 2026.
The Saints look like they may have their franchise QB in Tyler Shough, who's led them to 27 points per game, with at least 24 in every contest.
The Falcons started the season slow offensively after being forced to start substandard quarterbacks, but immediately picked up when Michael Penix Jr. made his season debut last week, routing the Packers 35-14. Penix went 18-for-25 for 256 yards, which aren’t elite numbers, but more than plenty to open up the defense and provide space for Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr. to dominate on the ground.
With Atlanta’s defense worse against the pass and New Orleans’ defense ranked dead last in DVOA against the run, this game sets up nicely for both offenses to do what they do best. That’s especially true if the Falcons can keep it close enough to lean on the run, which is fairly likely with a spread of just 1.5.
While the total has jumped from 45.5 at open to 47.5, I believe there’s still some meat on the bone in taking the over, which is best at -109 via BetRivers, but is widely available at -110 odds as well.
Pick: Over 47.5 (-109)
Falcons vs Saints Anytime Touchdown Picks
I have no idea why Juwan Johnson is priced like this heading into Monday Night Football, but I'm not going to argue.
Johnson has six red-zone targets this season and has scored three TDs. The Falcons have a pass-funnel defense and have forced opponents to pass at the highest rate in the league (72.19%).
Johnson is coming off a stellar performance against the Raiders in which he caught all eight of his targets for 53 yards and two touchdowns.
Fellow tight end Noah Fant is questionable to play tonight due to an abdomen injury so it's possible Johnson could see more targets. At the same time, I also like Fant's odds to score if he does play at +550.
Fant hasn't been used at a huge rate, but he has three touchdowns on the season to go along with three red-zone targets.
Pick: Juwan Johnson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+250) | Noah Fant Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+550)
Michael Penix Jr. Props
Michael Penix Jr. threw an interception in his season debut last week against the Packers — I think he's in line to potentially throw another one tonight.
In 13 career starts, he’s thrown an interception in seven of them. The Saints have been unlucky to only have one interception this season — they’re top 10 in pressure rate and blitz rate. Penix’s turnover-worthy-play rate sees a big jump when being pressured.
I had this closer to -110 so at +120, I’ll take the value.
Pick: Michael Penix Jr. Interception (+120)
