Giants vs. Packers Prediction & Odds | NFL Monday Night Football
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Giants vs. Packers Prediction & Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 37 -110o / -110u | +195 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 37 -110o / -110u | -240 |
NFL odds have Green Bay as a 5.5-point favorite on the spread against New York on Monday Night Football. The game total over/under is a consensus 37 points. My Giants vs. Packers prediction is that there may be an edge on the underdog, but only at a certain number.
Believe it or not, if the season ended after last week, the surging Packers (6-6) would have found themselves in the playoffs as the No. 7 seed in the NFC. If they can avoid a letdown in New York following their victory over the Chiefs, the postseason will be well within reach with an extremely favorable schedule to close out the season with games vs. Tampa Bay, at Carolina and Minnesota and then vs. Chicago.
Check out my preview and prediction below.
Giants vs. Packers Prediction
Let's break this one down by focusing on both inexperienced quarterbacks, starting with the Giants, who will once again roll with rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito.
The former Syracuse and Illinois product has led New York to two straight victories, but those came against Washington and New England, thanks in large part to an insane plus-8 turnover margin.
DeVito has thrown four touchdowns to no interceptions over the last two games, but he was also sacked a whopping 15 times, which has been a major issue for the inexperienced signal-caller. In just five games of action, DeVito has been sacked 28 times with an astronomical 47.5% pressure to sack rate. For context, the next highest among qualified quarterbacks is his teammate, Daniel Jones, who sits at 31.6%.
While the offensive line deserves part of the blame, that discrepancy highlights a major problem area.
Since his first NFL action in Week 8, DeVito is last in both Success Rate and Adjusted EPA per play among 30 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks. Despite seven touchdowns to just three interceptions, it hasn't been pretty, as evidenced by a 3:5 Big Time Throw to Turnover Worthy Play ratio (per PFF).
Under any kind of pressure, everything falls apart for the Giants. Packers edge rushers Preston Smith and Rashan Gary could wreak havoc in the backfield all night long on passing downs for a Green Bay defense also trending in the right direction since getting healthier on the back end.
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Giants vs. Packers Picks at FanDuel
Meanwhile, Jordan Love ranks 12th and ninth, respectively, in Success Rate and Adjusted EPA. Love continues to grow in confidence, as does his inexperienced wide receiver corps.
A healthier offensive line and Matt LaFleur's elite play-calling of late have only helped matters. This is certainly an offense trending in the right direction.
On Monday night, Love will face a New York defense that loves to blitz under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. On the season, only the Vikings (47.6%) have a higher blitz rate than the Giants (41.0%).
That plan of attack might backfire against Love, who has thrown six touchdowns to no interceptions against the blitz this season, while also owning the most Big Time Throws (nine).
He's struggled a bit more when under natural edge pressure, but that's not something the Giants can consistently do. They are below league average in pressure rate despite blitzing almost half the time.
Giants vs. Packers Prediction & Pick
This is a great situational spot on paper for the Giants against a Packers team that may be at the top of its market value. The problem with fading Green Bay here is I'd have to back DeVito, which I'm not rushing to do.
Both offenses should have success running the ball against defenses that are vulnerable in that department. However, I trust the Green Bay passing attack and offensive line much more when it comes to passing downs, which will likely decide this game.
From a pure projections standpoint though, I'd have to take the Giants at a touchdown or better. If it doesn't get there (keep in mind the Packers should be a popular side, so there's a chance it does on game day), this looks like a pure pass for me.
Pick: Giants +7 or Better
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