The Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) and Indianapolis Colts (8-7) meet in NFL Week 17 on Sunday, December 28. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Jaguars are 6.5-point favorites over the Colts on the spread (Jaguars -6.5), with the over/under set at 48.5 total points. Jacksonville is a -290 favorite to win outright, while Indianapolis is +235 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Jaguars vs Colts prediction for today's AFC South rivalry game.
Jaguars vs Colts Prediction
- Jaguars vs Colts pick: Colts +6.5 (-110)
My Jaguars vs Colts best bet is on Indianapolis to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Jaguars vs Colts Odds
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -290 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
Jaguars vs Colts NFL Week 17 Preview
I was on the wrong side of the Colts last week , and honestly, that was just a bad call.
Nine days is simply too much time to prepare for an opposing defense, and it resulted in the 49ers moving up and down the field every possession against the Colts.
That said, the Colts offense was good enough to win. Philip Rivers and company managed to score 27 points on 312 total yards (5.4 yards per play). However, they never stood a chance with their defense surrendering 41 points on 440 total yards.
The Colts fumbled a kickoff in that game, which is basically seven free points when you can't get any stops. Then there was the sack-fumble that should have been a huge defensive play, but instead turned into a 12-yard gain — and yes, Rivers threw a pick-six, but by that point, the game was already decided.
The Colts defense was incredibly disappointing, though. Last week's effort was brutal. It felt like nobody showed up — and that’s what stood out the most: the lack of emotion.
I know the Colts are really banged up right now, but where was the urgency?
It felt like the only guy who cared, with the season on the line, was their 44-year-old quarterback who was just signed off the couch. Rivers was chirping, getting into it, and honestly I enjoyed that part.
For context, Rivers hasn’t been nearly as bad as the market suggested. His passing yards prop against a terrible 49ers defense was around 160, and he cleared that in the first half. In a small sample, he ranks 23rd in composite of EPA+CPOE among quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks.
That’s not great, but it’s also not third-string, unplayable quarterback territory either. By adjusted EPA per play, he would rank 20th. In standard EPA per play, he’s around +0.03, which means he’s still adding points.
For reference, that’s in the range of Jacoby Brissett and Jayden Daniels. Again, not great, but certainly not terrible. Rivers made some good throws on Monday night. It doesn’t always look pretty coming out of his hand, but the accuracy was there.
Now, you’re talking about an important division game for the Colts against the Jaguars, another home spot for them. Rivers isn’t playing at some kind of Daniel Jones breakout level, but competent quarterback play matters — and the Colts defense isn’t going to be as bad as they were on Monday night in every game.
Sometimes you see this kind of performance in non-conference games, where there’s less familiarity between teams and a coach like Kyle Shanahan can run circles around you. This is a totally different situation against the Jaguars.
Jaguars vs Colts Prediction, Betting Analysis
This is a divisional game, the second meeting between these teams, and a clear revenge spot for the Colts.
On the season, the Colts are fourth in overall DVOA; the Jaguars are fifth.
This is still a very talented Colts team. Sure, they have injuries, but they can adjust. Rivers can still place the ball accurately, which I was genuinely worried about coming into last week — but I'm feeling more confident now.
This just feels like too many points for a Colts team that has plenty of talent, now in a desperation spot. It’s a second division game at home, catching 6.5 points against a Jaguars team that we like, but one that hasn’t been as strong on the road.
The Jaguars are coming off a huge win against the Broncos, but they were outgained 445 to 346 in that game. Before that, they played the Jets, Colts, Titans, Cardinals and a Chargers team with some serious offensive line issues.
I see a potential letdown spot for the Jaguars here.
The Trevor Lawrence and Liam Coen hype is real, and I'm still in on them, but this might be the peak of the market on the Jaguars and the bottom of the market for the Colts.
The Colts are just one game over .500, coming off a primetime blowout, and everyone thinks they’re done — which is quite different than how we were talking about them not too long ago.
Pick: Colts +6.5 (-110)
Spread
My Jaguars vs Colts betting prediction is on Indianapolis to cover the spread at +6.5.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm not betting either side of the total in this game.
