The New England Patriots (8-2) host the New York Jets (2-7) to open NFL Week 11 on Thursday Night Football on November 13. Kickoff from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. TNF will broadcast on Prime Video.
The Patriots are 13-point favorites over the Jets on the spread (Patriots -13); the game total is 43 points. New England is a -850 favorite to win outright on the moneyline and New York is +575 to pull off the upset.
Below, you can find our Jets vs Patriots picks for Thursday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, game total and three player props.
Jets vs Patriots Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
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  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Thursday Night Football Odds
- Jets vs Patriots Moneyline: Jets +575, Patriots -850
- Jets vs Patriots Spread: Jets +13, Patriots -13
- Jets vs Patriots Total: 43
Jets vs Patriots odds via bet365
Jets vs Patriots Spread Prediction
Despite another awful season, the Jets have only lost by double digits twice this season. One of those games was at the hands of the Bills, and the other was a game in which they were outgained by just 38 yards back in Week 5 against Dallas. The Jets had 25 first downs to the Cowboys’ 22 first downs in that 15-point loss.
Between 65%-76% of the spread tickets are backing the home Patriots in this game, but the trends are not on their side.
In the entirety of Bet Labs data, road underdogs of more than 10 points inside of the division are 103-79-3, covering at a 56.6% rate and netting a 9.2% return on investment. Specifically in the AFC East, those underdogs are 17-10 (63%) against the number.
Furthermore, when looking at late-season games played in November, December or January, double-digit underdogs have done incredibly well against teams that have had good results, covering the number during that season up to that point.
All double-digit underdogs that have covered 50% of their games or fewer playing against a team that has covered 70% of their games or more are 48-29 against the spread (ATS), covering at a 62.3% rate. This trend has held strong — 'dogs in this spot are 14-8 (63.6%) ATS since the beginning of 2017.
Hold your nose and back the Jets at +13 or better.
Pick: Jets +13 (-110)
Jets vs Patriots Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
After some intriguing Thursday Night Football games in the earlier part of the season, we now return to the classic TNF slog with the lowly Jets taking on the Patriots.
We have a game with a double-digit spread in which one team is implied for just 15 points – and even that feels optimistic.
The Jets rank 25th in points per game, but they’ve had a relatively easy schedule, playing the two worst defenses in the league. They’ve also scored three defensive/special teams touchdowns this season, which inflates their overall scoring numbers.
That’s probably not repeatable against a Patriots team that takes care of the ball relatively well, especially now that they’ve moved on from the fumble-prone running backs that handled many of their early season carries.
On the other side, I don’t see the Patriots running up the score tonight on a short week. While they’ve had some blowout wins this season, it would make more sense to shorten the game and focus on keeping everyone healthy, especially with their offensive line fairly shaky.
This is the perfect primetime under spot between two teams with just one functional offense between them. Barring any fluky scoring that keeps this close, it should be a low-scoring affair with New England just trying to run out the clock.
The best line on the under is 43.5 at -113 via DraftKings at the time of writing, but I’d take any of the 43 or better lines.
Pick: Under 43.5; bet to Under 43
Jets vs Patriots Player Props: Justin Fields
By Nick Galaida
If Justin Fields doesn't get benched tonight, there is tremendous value on him going over this number for passing yards.
He had only 54 passing yards in Week 10 against the Browns, but the Jets ran the ball 33 times and Fields attempted 11 passes in a game that they led for much of the afternoon.
Fields had 244 passing yards in Week 9, 283 passing yards in Week 5, 226 passing yards in Week 4 and 218 passing yards in Week 1.
There is precedent here and the matchup isn't impossible. New England's secondary has allowed 7-of-10 quarterbacks to go over their season average in success rate against them this season.
By Derek Carty
I'm in line with Nick as there is a value opportunity on Justin Fields's passing yards prop.
THE BLITZ is projecting 199.89 passing yards for Fields with an 80% chance that he exceeds 129.5 passing yards. If you can get the over at -112 or better, there is some great value here. (This play is good down to at least -231.)
Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Justin Fields Over 129.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Jets vs Patriots Player Props: DeMario Douglas
This likely isn't going to be a fun game, but judging from the spread and total, the Pats should be putting up some points.
Since shipping off their two best defensive players (Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams), the Jets are not a good defense. They've been one of the worst pass defenses in the league, and that's before Gardner was traded.
DeMario Douglas doesn't get a ton of snaps on a week-to-week basis, but he makes the most out of it when he's in the game. He has three TDs and six red-zone targets on the season.
I have the true odds here under +400.
Pick: DeMario Douglas Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+475)
Jets vs Patriots Player Props: Mack Hollins
By Grant Neiffer
The Patriots rotate their WRs fairly often, but Mack Hollins is getting consistent snaps weekly.
He's been getting a lot of volume in recent weeks — 19 targets over his last three games, including a season-high 10 against the Bucs on Sunday — and has five red-zone targets this season.
With Kayshon Boutte out, Hollins should be in for even more work.
I have the true odds here around +225.
Pick: Mack Hollins Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+280)
