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Josh Allen Player Props for Patriots vs Bills: Expert Betting Passing Under

Josh Allen Player Props for Patriots vs Bills: Expert Betting Passing Under article feature image
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Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Allen.

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Josh Allen Passing Yards

Prop Josh Allen Under 268.5 Passing Yards
Matchup Patriots vs. Bills
Day, Time Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Best Book FanDuel

This is a tougher matchup than usual for Allen, facing a Patriots defense that ranks third in DVOA against the pass.

A huge part of New England’s success is its ability to generate pressure, which it ranks second in the NFL in doing. Buffalo will be without left tackle Dion Dawkins here, as well, and he’ll be replaced by David Quessenberry, who struggled in relief last week. On the right side, tackle Spencer Brown will have his hands full with Matthew Judon.

So, what is Allen likely going to do against a ton of pressure and a team that plays a ton of man coverage? He’s going to scramble and use his legs even more than usual.

Allen is also dealing with an elbow injury that could bother him the rest of the season. Since Week 9, his accuracy has taken a hit, going from 76% before the injury to 66% over the last three games.

Buffalo has also leaned on the run game a bit more since Allen suffered his injury, running the ball about 5% more often on early downs.

All of these factors point toward the under having value here. I project Allen for closer to 255.5 passing yards against the Patriots.

Pick: Josh Allen Under 268.5 Passing Yards

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