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Kyler Murray Player Props: Expert Fading QB in Saints vs Cardinals

Kyler Murray Player Props: Expert Fading QB in Saints vs Cardinals article feature image

Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyler Murray.

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Kyler Murray Passing Yards

PropKyler Murray Under 245.5 Passing Yards
MatchupSaints vs. Cardinals
Day, TimeThursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Best BookBetMGM

Kyler Murray gets his top receiver back tonight in DeAndre Hopkins, and he adds Robbie Anderson to his arsenal, although that may be in a limited capacity.

Although Marquise "Hollywood" Brown is out for more than a month, I'd say Murray probably gets just a slight boost in the pass-catching talent he has to target tonight.

However, there are a few reasons why I like him to go under his passing-yards prop tonight.

1) I expect Murray's pass attempt will be lower tonight against the Saints.

The Cardinals have averaged a league-high 72 plays per game this season. You'd expect that big number given the fast pace they play with, but it's still five more than they averaged last season. I expect that number to go down.

Arizona has also played with a lead at the lowest rate in the NFL this season, which has led it to throw the football more. The Cardinals are 2.5-point favorites tonight, which suggests they could play with the lead and allow them to be more balanced on offense.

Also, the Saints are the most run-heavy team on early downs in neutral game scripts in the NFL. That should bleed the block and limit the Cardinals' time of possession.

2) Murray has been inefficient when he does throw the ball, averaging just 5.8 yards per pass attempt this season. He's also averaging a league-low 3.9 Air Yards per completion.

3) Murray is facing a Saints defense that has blitzed at the fourth-lowest rate this season. His yards per attempt is 6.1 against the blitz and 5.7 when the opposing defense doesn't.

4) Murray has been leaning on his rushing ability more in the past couple games, rushing for 42 yards in Week 5 and 100 last week. That cuts into his passing production. Murray also will be without two starting offensive lineman — LG Justin Pugh and C Rodney Hudson — so he may be running more than he'd like tonight.

I'm projecting Murray for closer to 235.5 passing yards tonight.

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