Lamar Jackson, Nick Chubb Have Most Popular Sunday Night Football Player Props for Browns vs. Ravens
Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Jackson
Browns vs. Ravens Odds
|Date||Sunday, Nov. 28|
|Time||8:20 p.m. ET|
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.
The Cleveland Browns hit the road for an AFC North matchup with the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football.
The Browns have had a disappointing season, with only one marquee win on the season — on the road against the Bengals. A lot of their issues have to do with the fact that Baker Mayfield is playing with a torn shoulder and now has a foot problem to boot. It can’t be discounted how much these injuries are affecting his play — if anything, people aren’t giving him enough credit for soldiering through these very serious injuries.
Despite Mayfield’s issues, the rushing attack is the best in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. That attack is buoyed by two-time Pro Bowler Nick Chubb and the returning Kareem Hunt.
And though the Browns have dealt with their fair share of offensive foibles, really, it’s their defense that has been sorely lacking.
Cleveland’s defense is ranked just 24th in the NFL in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. That’s worse than the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Giants, which give up about 25 points per game.
On the other side, Lamar Jackson didn’t play last week after being ruled out for a non-COVID related illness. The Ravens still pulled off a dub against the lowly Chicago Bears 16-13.
Baltimore is a game up on the Bengals for the AFC North lead. They’re -130 favorites at DraftKings to end up the division winners. The Bengals are +300 while the Browns are +450.
Browns vs. Ravens NFL Player Props
- Lamar Jackson to score a touchdown at any point (+105)
- Nick Chubb to score a touchdown at any point (-115)
- Lamar Jackson to rush for more than 65.5 yards (-105)
Odds and data are courtesy of PointsBet
Jackson encompasses two of the three most popular player props for Sunday Night Football. He has scored a touchdown in just one game out of nine games this season, which implies odds of just +800.
The value on this prop makes no sense, especially against the Browns serviceably ranked (17th) rush defense.
For Nick Chubb, too, there isn’t much value on his touchdown prop. It’s the second-most popular prop for Sunday Night Football, but he’s going up against the Ravens’ sixth-ranked rush defense.
While Chubb has had a monster last two games — averaging over 133 yards from the ground, over 153 yards total and 1.5 touchdowns a game — I tend to hate touchdown props, and especially at minus money.
The prop type is impossible to empirically analyze on the aggregate. That factor coupled with the fact that it’s a rushing prop made against one of the run defenses in the league leave me no choice but to pass on this one.
The third-most popular player prop has Jackson rushing for more than 65.5 yards. He has done so in four of nine games, which implies that this prop should be priced at around +125.
Out of the three most popular props for Sunday Night Football, Jackson’s rushing yard prop undoubtedly provides the most value.