Lions vs Patriots Odds & Picks for NFL Week 5
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Bailey Zappe.
- The Bailey Zappe-led Patriots are home favorites against the Lions.
- Detroit is 4-0 to the over this season and faces a very strong rushing attack.
- Kody Malstrom breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet.
Lions vs. Patriots Odds
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +148 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -125 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
Let me give you my brief history with Patriots rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe so you can know my thought process leading to this wager.
While Zappe is an Action Network favorite from his time at Western Kentucky, he has done nothing but torture me.
It all started when Western Kentucky battled it out against Michigan State. I had a valuable +14.5 ticket in my pocket, looking great and feeling better. That is until star rocket arm Zappe failed to live up to his hype and could not move the ball against MSU's laughable secondary. With a chance to cover late, he took himself out of the game, only for the backup to go three and out and end the game.
Fast forward to conference championship season, I finally found peace after what was my biggest loss of the season. Holding a WKU conference championship ticket, this was an opportunity for Zappe to make it up to me. I should have known better to trust him, as the Hilltoppers lost 49-41.
I thought I was done with Zappe forever once he was drafted to the Patriots, but the unthinkable happened. With both Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer going down with injuries, it was Zappe's time to shine against the Packers.
While my Packers -9.5 had no hope, I now stare down the barrel that is Zappe's arm with my Lions facing his Patriots.
This is a personal grudge match, one I plan on cashing in on.
Lions vs. Patriots Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Lions and Patriots match up statistically:
Lions vs. Patriots DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 7 | 19 | |
| Pass DVOA | 12 | 10 | |
| Rush DVOA | 4 | 31 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 18 | 32 | |
| Pass DVOA | 28 | 24 | |
| Rush DVOA | 1 | 32 | |
In some sick, twisted joke, the Lions are good enough to be entertaining to watch on offense, but only to end in maximum pain behind the play of their defense.
Fielding the highest-scoring unit in the NFL while also giving up the most points per game, the Lions have been generous to our bankrolls by going a perfect 4-0 on the over.
Even with injuries hitting key offensive weapons hard, Jared Goff has been able to move the ball down the field behind an excellent offensive line and reconnect with stud tight end T.J. Hockenson.
Goff may face a similar situation this time around with D.J. Chark and DeAndre Swift already ruled out. I expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to follow suit with Detroit's bye coming next week. Fear not, though: This Patriots defense ranks average to below average in both defensive Pass and Rush DVOA.
As for the defense, it isn't pretty. Detroit gets unnecessarily aggressive at very predictable times, with opposing offenses being able to simply change the play at the line and burn the secondary. We can expect the same dose of pressure as Zappe settles in under center, a gamble that may finally pay off.
The Patriots offense will likely lean heavier than usual on running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris. That duo almost powered an upset win over the Packers and will likely wreak havoc against an awful Lions run defense. It says a lot about how good that rushing attack is with how competitive New England was with Zappe under center at Lambeau Field. The duo combined for 152 yards and ran for 4.5 yards per carry last week.
It's still too early to tell if Bill Belichick will let Zappe sling it, but he should find some success in the air thanks to how efficient the rushing attack is likely to be against the Lions.
The Patriots defense has been a different tale and now faces a strong Lions attack led by Goff. The Patriots are notorious for taking away the best offensive player out of their opponent's plan, which presumably will be Hockenson by throwing a safety to provide help in coverage.
Betting Picks
I thought the injuries to Detroit's playmakers may mean a step back, but the Lions still shredded the Seahawks defense. The injuries are similar this week and the game should be no different. The Patriots don't provide a much higher step up in defensive success compared to Seattle.
As for New England, I was thoroughly impressed with how efficiently it moved the ball with Zappe coming in the middle of the game against the Packers. The Patriots offense is in good position to produce again if the rushing attack thrives and gives Zappe momentum to build off.
Lions overs is the theme once again, assuming we will be witnessing another shootout. If Zappe is going to burn the Lions fan in me, the least he can do is put up points to hit the over.
FanDuel Quickslip: Over 45.5 | Bet to 48.5
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