The Los Angeles Rams (12-5) and Carolina Panthers (8-9) face off in the Wild Card Round today. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. The game will broadcast on FOX.
The Rams are 10.5-point favorites on the spread (Rams -10.5; -102), the game total is 45.5 (-102o / -120u). The Rams are -560 favorites on the moneyline; the Panthers are +420 underdogs.
Let's get into my Rams vs Panthers prediction — plus the latest NFL Wild Card odds, betting trends, injury reports for both teams, weather forecast and more.
Rams vs Panthers Predictions, Picks
- Rams vs Panthers pick: 1st Half Under 23.5 (bet to 23)
My Rams vs Panthers best bet is the first-half game total under 23.5 . Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Rams vs Panthers Odds
| LA Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -102 | 45.5 -102o / -120u | -560 |
| Carolina Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -120 | 45.5 -102o / -120u | +420 |
Rams vs Panthers Wild Card Preview, Prediction
The Panthers host the Rams in a rematch of Week 13, when Carolina pulled off a shocking upset as 10-point underdogs. The Panthers hosted that game, and they will again today as NFC South champions.
In that game, the Panthers were one of the luckiest winners on the season, winning 31-28, but losing by our Expected Score metric, which powers our Luck Rankings, by an Expected Score of 31.3-19.7. A large factor in that was the Rams' massive advantage in success rate, clearing the Panthers in all-play success rate by more than 18%.
The Rams will certainly have revenge on their mind from a game where QB Matthew Stafford threw an early pick-six to put the Rams down early. Stafford had another interception on the previous drive at the Panthers' 8-yard line, and lost a fourth-quarter fumble shortly after getting inside the Panthers' red zone.
Stafford will have his full complement of skill-position weapons with Davanted Adam returning from a hamstring injury, although his effectiveness could be hampered a bit. However, the loss of RG Kevin Dotson (ankle) could be what looms large for the Rams here.
In the last three games, where Dotson missed two and was injured early in the third, the Rams have had a 48.6% all-play success rate, down from 54.3% prior to his injury. Some of that is in the pass game, where the Rams have taken a hit from 53.6% to 51.5%, but more of it is in the run game, where the success rate has dropped from 52.3% to 40.2%.
That's a massive 12% dip despite facing the Falcons and Cardinals, who rank 23rd and 26th, respectively, in defensive rush DVOA in two of those games, which is right around where Carolina ranks (24th).
There is potential for inclement weather in this game. Current forecasts project 10-15 mph sustained winds, with gusts from 20-30 mph and a 65-80% chance of rain throughout. Both the rain and wind should decrease from the high end to the low end of the range as the game progresses. It's possible the Rams could take a hit in the pass game as a result.
The Panthers "earned" their playoff spot after losing a crucial Week 18 game to the Buccaneers, only to be bailed out by the Falcons' win over the Saints, allowing the Panthers to advance to the playoffs by winning a three-way tiebreaker atop the NFC South.
It's pretty rare for a team with an offensive DVOA and defensive DVOA both in the 20s to make the playoffs, but that's what we have here.
Bryce Young has had a career year, but even his best of his three seasons leaves him ranked 29th out of 38 qualified QBs in adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) and 22nd in completion percentage.
The run game — powered by Rico Dowdle — has been what's kept the Panthers afloat, ranking as the only unit of the four (rush and pass offense and defense) better than 20th. Still, it's not a super impressive ranking at 17th.
Another issue for Carolina has been its kicking game, with kicker Ryan Fitzgerald making just 82.8% of his field-goal attempts and 90% of his extra-point attempts, well below the league averages of 85.6% and 95.9%, respectively.
Fitzgerald has especially struggled from distance, making just 2-of-5 FGs from 50-plus yards, and another from 48. His three misses from 50-plus yards were all short, highlighting his limitations in a season where a record nine kickers belted one from 60 yards or more.
Worth noting here is there will be a near-perfect crosswind with gusts up to 30 mph early in the game.
Rams vs Panthers Predictions, Wild Card Bet
As I mention in each team's preview section, there's reason to be concerned about both offenses. That's especially true in the first half, where the winds and rain are currently forecast to be the strongest.
The Rams will still be throwing, but they'll likely have to be shorter, and mid-range passes which chew clock thanks to the weather, and their run game could still sustain the dip from the loss of Dotson.
Carolina, meanwhile, probably won't be expected to make any field goals from distance in the first half especially knowing the wind situation. It's also a tall task for the Panthers offense against the Rams' No. 4 defensive unit.
The Panthers scored four touchdowns against the Rams in their Week 13 game: the aforementioned pick-six and three passing touchdowns from distance, with the shortest at 33 yards. That's not a sustainable way to score, especially against a defense as good as the Rams', and even more especially in a first half where weather will be a concern.
As a result, I'll take the first half under 23.5 points. The 23 number can be somewhat key, with a missed extra point or two-point try, which does increase in a weather game, or just a first-half field goal fest (3 FGs and 2 TDs) putting 23 in play.
Thus, I'd play this at 23, but avoid 22.5.
Pick: 1st Half Under 23.5; bet to Under 23
Rams vs Panthers Betting Trends
Rams vs Panthers Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. |
| Date: | Saturday, Jan. 10 |
| Time: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | FOX |
Rams vs Panthers Latest Injuries
Rams Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| OL Kevin Dotson | Out (ankle) |
| WR Jordan Whittington | Out (knee) |
| TE Terrance Ferguson | Out (hamstring) |
| CB Josh Wallace | Questionable (ankle) |
Panthers Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| G Chandler Zavala | Out (calf) |
