Giants-49ers MNF Betting Preview: Ride Nick Mullens as a Small Home Favorite?

Betting odds: New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

• Spread: 49ers -3
• Over/Under: 45
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN

Betting market: Bettors aren’t buying into Nick Mullens Mania as the 49ers are getting just 39% of bets as of writing (see live odds and public betting data here). The Niners opened at -2.5 at some books and are now uniformly -3 across the market despite the odd lack of support for Mullens.

All joking aside, both of these teams are pretty terrible, combining to go 3-14 straight up 6-11 against the spread. It’s possible that bettors just want to take whichever team is getting points in this ugly Monday Night Football matchup. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Niners are small favorites following a strong performance from Mullens (262 passing yards and three touchdowns) in his first career start.

But can bettors trust San Francisco as chalk? Maybe not. The 49ers are 6-15 ATS in the 21 previous games they’ve been favored in since the 2014 season, according to our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing

Exactly one year ago on Monday was the last time Eli Manning was listed as a favorite. His opponent? The 49ers.

Including this week in San Francisco, Manning has been listed as an underdog in 15 consecutive games and is 6-8 ATS over the previous 14. He’s been listed as an underdog in 24 of his past 27 games, going 5-21 straight up and 10-16 ATS. — Evan Abrams

Did you know? The Giants’ running game has been nearly invisible in 2018, accumulating only 623 yards (31st in the league entering Week 10) and 4.18 yards per carry (20th).

The Giants have managed only 98 yards rushing over their past two games. When the Giants have consecutive games with fewer than 100 yards on the ground, they are 33-14-1 ATS (70.2%) the following game, profiting bettors 17.2 units.

Since 2003, no other QB has profited bettors more in this spot than Manning. Over that span, only three quarterbacks have profited bettors 10 units or more: Manning, Tom Brady (27-12 ATS) and Matthew Stafford (30-18-1 ATS). — Abrams

Biggest mismatch/DFS edge: Saquon Barkley vs. 49ers run defense

Barkley’s 21.1 touches per game ranks fourth among all running backs through nine weeks, and his 8.9 targets per game rank second. His usage in the passing game further boosts his DFS floor and ceiling because he’s seeing receiver-like target share.

Barkley should also be able to exploit the 49ers’ 29th-ranked run defense unit in Pro Football Focus’ grades. — Justin Bailey

Which team is healthier? Giants

The Giants will welcome back starting linebacker Alec Ogletree (hamstring) and backup receiver Jawill Davis (concussion). They don’t have any other contributors with an injury designation.

The 49ers aren’t so lucky. Wide receiver Pierre Garcon (knee), safety Jaquiski Tartt (shoulder) and linebacker Reuben Foster have all been ruled out. Center Weston Richburg (knee) and stud tight end George Kittle (chest) will suit up despite being limited in practice this week. –– Ian Hartitz

Bet to watch: Giants +3

This bet is simply a value play taking advantage of an undervalued Giants team facing the overvalued 49ers.

According to The Action Network’s NFL power ratings, San Francisco is the most overrated team this week. Our ratings make this spread 49ers -0.4, so getting nearly three points of line value through the key number of 3 is too good to pass up.

It’s certainly an ugly play, but it’s also the right play. Some books are even offering +3.5, so be sure to shop for the best line and grab the hook. — PJ Walsh

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.