Vikings vs Giants Picks, Odds: Expert NFC Wild Card Prediction

Vikings vs Giants Picks, Odds: Expert NFC Wild Card Prediction article feature image
  • The Vikings are 2.5-point favorites (FanDuel) against the Giants.
  • In a regular-season matchup, Minnesota notched a narrow win over New York.
  • Blake Krass breaks down the game and makes his Vikings vs. Giants pick below.

NFL Wild Card Weekend has arrived and with it comes this rematch from Christmas Eve, as we make a Vikings vs. Giants pick.

The Vikings vs. Giants odds have New York as a three-point underdog at most sportsbooks, although the spread is down to 2.5 at FanDuel. In Brian Daboll's first year at the helm, are making their first playoff appearance since 2016-17. However, the Giants are hungry to go even further and secure their first playoff win in 12 years.

This is the Minnesota Vikings' second time in the playoffs with Kirk Cousins, who will be looking to overcome his lack of postseason success. Cousins is just 1-3 in the playoffs in his career, with that one win coming in overtime in 2020.

Now, let's check out the Vikings vs. Giants odds and make a pick for this matchup.

Vikings vs. Giants Odds

Sunday, Jan. 15
4:30 p.m. ET
Vikings Odds
-110o / -110u
Giants Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.
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Vikings vs. Giants Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Giants and Vikings match up statistically:

Vikings vs. Giants DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA1027
Pass DVOA1026
Rush DVOA719
Overall DVOA2029
Pass DVOA1522
Rush DVOA2832

These teams are almost mirror images of each other. The Vikings have an array of offensive talent with Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook and many more. However, they have not performed great as a cohesive unit and have benefited from a lot of lucky bounces to get to this point.

The Giants, on the other hand, aren't exactly one of the most talented teams. They lack a true WR1 and Daniel Jones is someone most people doubted entering this year. However, they have outperformed and made it to the postseason on the back of elite coaching and great discipline.

Despite the Vikings' 13-4 record, they hold a point differential of -3, only three points better than the Giants (9-7-1). Both teams have played close games all year. In fact, 13 of the Giants' 18 games have been decided by one score. The Vikings have had 11 of 18 games decided by one score.

It was no different when these teams faced each other in the regular season. The Vikings ended up winning by three points, but were outplayed in almost every metric. The Giants out-gained the Vikings by nearly 100 yards and had 6.7 yards per play. Minnesota had 5.0 yards per play.

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One thing you can point to that led to the Vikings winning was the turnover differential. New York turned it over twice while Minnesota never gave the ball up. The bounces have gone the Vikings' way all season, and that sets up a potential path for regression in the postseason.

Jones had his second-highest passing yardstotal in this regular season matchup. Daboll is one of the best offensive minds in the NFL and I think he will come up with a perfect game plan to set up Jones for similar success.

The Giants rank 21st in overall DVOA while the Vikings come in at 27th. New York also has the more reliable kicker in Graham Gano, compared to Greg Joseph, who has been really unreliable. Joseph ranked 19th in FG% out of 22 kickers with at least 30 attempts.

Jones has been elite away from home over his career, with a 16-5 ATS record as a road underdog. The Giants were also the most profitable team all season with a 13-4 ATS record.

Betting Picks

The Giants have a real shot at winning. They were the better team in the regular season matchup, but things broke the Vikings' way. New York's offense will be the best unit on the field and it has the coaching edge over Minnesota.

It is not hard to believe this game will come down to a field goal or less either way, making the three-point spread enticing. The Giants should be able to play their style of football and keep this thing close the whole way, with a shot to win at the end.

I am taking the three points with New York and I would take it all the way down to a PK. The Giants are also an ideal teaser piece as long as this line stays at +1.5 or longer.

Be sure to shop around using our live NFL odds page. As of 2:30 p.m. ET, New York is still +3 at some sportsbooks.

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