Jets vs Browns Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Thursday Night Football

Browns vs. Jets odds indicate that Thursday Night Football shouldn't be a very close game, as Cleveland looks to put a stranglehold on its playoff spot in the AFC against the lowly Jets.

This is a huge game for the Browns, as they can clinch a playoff spot with either a win or a tie. Since 2002, Cleveland has only been in the playoffs twice, with its last appearance coming in 2020. Grizzled veteran Joe Flacco has led the Browns' resurgence, leading them to a 3-1 record since taking over in Week 13. Flacco takes on his old squad, the Jets, who are eliminated from playoff contention and starting Trevor Siemian at quarterback.

Continue reading below for my Thursday Night Football betting preview and Jets vs. Browns prediction.

Browns vs Jets Odds

Browns vs Jets Pick, Prediction

When the Browns Have the Ball

Joe Flacco, who ranks in the top 25 in all key QB metrics, has given the Browns offense a much-needed spark since taking over in Week 13. The Browns defense remains elite, so if Flacco can keep up his stellar play, this could be a dangerous team in the postseason.

Flacco will face a tough test against a Jets defense that ranks third in DVOA against the pass and 13th against the run. It’s a spot where the Browns could opt to lean on the run more and not risk Flacco turnovers – he’s made eight (seven interceptions, one lost fumble) in just four games – against a New York squad unlikely to put up many points.

Amari Cooper is questionable with a heel injury. If he is unable to suit up, it’ll force the Browns to lean on their run game even more.

When the Jets Have the Ball

Trevor Siemian is expected to make his second consecutive start in place of the injured Zach Wilson (concussion).

Last week against the Commanders, Siemian was used strictly as a game manager as his average pass traveled just 3.3 yards downfield. He got rid of the ball quickly — average time to throw: 2.63 seconds — and threw it 6.4 yards short of the first-down marker on average. I expect the Jets to have a similar game plan against the Browns as they can’t trust their shaky offensive line against Myles Garrett and company.

The idea for the Jets once again is to rely on their defense to keep the game close and low-scoring and hope Joe Flacco makes mistakes. I’m not sure if it’ll work in terms of the Jets pulling off the upset — or even covering the spread — but I do think it’ll be an ideal environment for the under.

Despite the schemed-up, high-percentage throws Siemian was making against Washington, he only completed 55% of them (27-for-49). Siemian completing just a few more passes would help the under, because it’d keep the clock running.

The more the Jets can extend drives and keep possession, the better it is for the under.

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Prime-time trends aside, the expected game plan for each team sets up nicely for the under. This game also has a luck rating of -6.3 for the total (third lowest of the week), which is another strong under signal.

I rarely factor kickers into my analysis, but both teams might be without their starters.

Dustin Hopkins (hamstring) has already been ruled out. He’s been excellent for the Browns this season, making 90% of his field-goal attempts, including a perfect 8-of-8 from 50-plus yards. Hopkins’ replacement is Riley Patterson, who’s been accurate on short-range kicks in his career but is just 3-for-6 from 50-plus yards. The Browns might be less willing to attempt longer field goals or have less success if they do.

As for the Jets, Greg Zuerlein (quadriceps) is listed as questionable. He’s made 96% of his field-goal attempts this year.

Unfortunately, the market is well aware that this game should be low-scoring and we have seen the total dip below 35 at some sportsbooks. I think the most likely outcome for the first-half total will be 17 points exactly, so I’m willing to wait and see if we see some 17.5s pop up. If we see multiple books offering the first-half under at -125 or better for 17.5, I will potentially upgrade it to an official play.

Be sure to follow me in the Action app to get an alert if I upgrade any of my leans and also get whatever prop(s) I end up betting.

Leans: Under 34.5 | 1H Under 17 or 17.5

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