NFL Picks & Props: Best Bets for Week 18 (Saturday)
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NFL Picks & Props for Saturday, Jan. 6
Week 18 kicks off with a Saturday doubleheader featuring Steelers vs Ravens and Texans vs Colts. Our betting staff, of course, has a number of NFL picks for these games with major playoff implications.
Our Texans-Colts picks include a bet against the spread and Alec Pierce and Jonathan Taylor player props.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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| 8:15 p.m. | ||
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| 4:30 p.m. | ||
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Steelers vs. Ravens
I'd make a healthy Ravens team over a touchdown favorite so this line is a real shocker and a massive overcompensation for Baltimore resting players and Pittsburgh being in a must-win spot.
The Steelers only rank 22nd in DVOA over the last six weeks and around that same rank on offense or defense, running or passing, so are we sure they're this much better than the Ravens' backups? Besides, rosters are only so deep, so Baltimore will still be playing a lot of good players — and don't forget, this is the team we back in every "meaningless" preseason game.
The Ravens always show up, and this is not a one-man team. Baltimore still has the better QB — even with Jackson out — and the Ravens have elite defense, special teams and coaching. That stuff doesn't go away just because a few guys sit.
Pittsburgh is worse in the first half, where the Ravens are 13-3 ATS, so Baltimore should start strong and push the Steelers all the way.
John Harbaugh is 61% ATS as an underdog, including 71% as a division 'dog. AFC North 'dogs are 65% ATS from Week 14 forward, and Mike Tomlin is an ugly 36% as a favorite of three or more the week after covering as an underdog in one of those "Rah Rah" spots we love.
And then there's one of my favorite trends in all of football: the underdog when Harbaugh and Tomlin meet is an awesome 23-5-3 ATS all time — that jumps to 18-1-3 ATS (95%) with an underdog of three or more.
This is the easiest pick of the week and the first thing I put on my betting card. Fade a mid Steelers team after back-to-back underdog wins in an inflated-line, must-win spot? Back the Ravens as an underdog in a divisional game on the strength of the roster with that Harbaugh vs. Tomlin trend? Done and done.
Pick: Ravens +3.5 (-120)
Steelers vs. Ravens
By Stuckey
If both teams were at full strength, I'd make the Ravens close to an 11-point home favorite. Therefore, even with Jackson and a number of key starters not suiting up, I still can't get to this price. This is a well-coached Baltimore team with outstanding roster depth, which is one of the reasons they've enjoyed so much success in the preseason under Harbaugh.
In a similar situation back in 2019, the Ravens, who had already locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, hosted the 8-7 Steelers, who needed to win to get into the playoffs. Seven Baltimore starters didn't play (six of whom were Pro Bowlers), including Jackson. However, even with Robert Griffin III under center, the Ravens beat Duck Hodges and the Steelers 28-10 as two-point home underdogs.
I think this is too much of an overreaction in the market. These are rivals, so I'm sure Baltimore would love to send them home packing. Plus, it's a chance for a lot of the depth guys to showcase what they've got, while having the ability to play much looser than the Steelers.
Baltimore won't lie down against a potentially worn-out Pittsburgh bunch that will come back across the country to play its second straight road game and 12th game in a row following a mid-October bye week.
For what it's worth, when Mike Tomlin and Harbaugh meet, the underdog has gone 23-5-3 ATS (82.1%). And when the line closes at 3 or higher in this rivalry, the underdog owns a ridiculous 19-2 ATS (90.5%) record.
Pick: Ravens +3.5 (-120)
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Steelers vs. Ravens
This line has not adjusted enough for the current role Pickens serves in the offense with Mason Rudolph at quarterback.
Albeit in a small sample size, Rudolph has targeted Pickens at a 30% rate since taking over at quarterback. The average depth of these targets has been 15 yards downfield, signaling Pickens' usage may finally be in line with his skillset. With five receptions of 30 or more yards in the last two games, it feels likely at least one more big play should be had against a shorthanded Baltimore secondary.
Marlon Humphrey has been ruled out for the Ravens, and I would not expect Kyle Hamilton to suit up in what is a meaningless game for Baltimore's AFC seeding. Both projected starting cornerbacks for Saturday, Brandon Stephens and Ronald Darby, are listed as questionable. It would not be surprising to see a limited workload, at best, for both of the players matching up with the dangerous Pickens.
I'd bet this up to 53.5.
Pick: George Pickens over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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Steelers vs. Ravens
By Matt Trebby
Jaylen Warren has gotten more than 3.5 receptions in four straight games, but it makes sense why sportsbooks aren’t anticipating he’ll do it a fifth straight time.
The Steelers are favored by a field goal and have their season on the line. A win and their playoff hopes are alive for another day, but lose and they’re done. Common sense would indicate that Pittsburgh should come out ready to go against a backup QB in Tyler Huntley.
I’m not so sure, though. Stuckey pointed out in his picks for the week that eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 100-64-4 (61.0%) against the spread (ATS). Obviously, the Ravens are not eliminated, but their incentive to win here is minimal.
We have multiple experts (like Brandon above me, hi Brandon!) on Baltimore, though. The Ravens are an incredibly well-coached team that is among the deepest in the NFL.
Why did I talk about all of that after saying I’m going to pick Warren? Well, it seems like books are anticipating the Steelers will be in control of this game. I mean, Warren is at +114 on a receptions total that he’s gone over the last four games. What’s the other explanation for that?
I’m anticipating a close game that sees Pittsburgh rely heavily on the pass game in its attempts to break free of Baltimore to ensure its season isn’t over Saturday night.
Sean Koerner is projecting Warren for 3.8 receptions, so I’ll happily bet this at a plus-money number.
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Texans vs. Colts
The Texans have been one of the most injury-riddled teams this season. If their key players had been on the field more regularly, the consistency of this team would have resulted in them being a bigger favorite in this spot. Thus, I am happy to grab this number at a discount.
The Colts do not pressure opposing passers and play one of the most vanilla defenses in the league. C.J. Stroud carved up this defense to the tune of 384 yards on only 31 attempts back in Week 2, and he has clearly developed significantly since that meeting.
According to Sharp Football, the Colts play Cover 3 at the second-highest rate league-wide. It just so happens Stroud is leading the league in passer rating against Cover 3, averaging nearly nine yards per attempt.
The Colts have only beaten one team since Week 3 that currently has a winning record, and that was the Mitch Trubisky-led Steelers. The Texans will punch their ticket to the playoffs on Saturday night.
Play the Texans -1 up to -2.5.
Pick: Texans -1 (-110)
Texans vs. Colts
By Matt Trebby
I’ve already bet the Texans to win this game, and this pick on Pierce kind of goes hand in hand with it. Sean Koerner’s mean projection has him pegged for 36 receiving yards, so I’d bet this up to 31.5.
It’s relevant that I see Houston winning this game because that means I see Indianapolis chasing C.J. Stroud. Normally, Indianapolis would look to ground-and-pound its way to victory, led by Jonathan Taylor, but it might be forced to rely on Gardner Minshew’s arm a bit more than usual.
Pierce has a 15.7-yard average depth of target (aDOT) this season and is becoming a downfield target for Minshew. He could clear this prop with just one receptions, but Koerner is also projecting him for 2.6 receptions, which has me very confident he’ll go over this total.
Pierce rarely comes off the field, and while Josh Downs has also displayed some playmaking ability, I’ll back Pierce, who has gone over this total in three of his last five games.
Also, in those last five games, Pierce has caught 10-of-22 targets. Even with a high aDOT in that span, you’d expect him to haul in a little more than that.
Pick: Alec Pierce Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Texans vs. Colts
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By Sean Koerner
The receptions market isn't one that Taylor is set up to thrive in.
Taylor's only averaged a 45% routes run rate over the last two games, not to mention Zack Moss’ potential return could prevent improvement from that mark despite the must-win nature of this game.
The Colts will likely lean on Taylor heavily on early downs and in the run game. But when Gardner Minshew drops backs to pass, he’s likely going to be looking at either Michael Pittman or Josh Downs. Minshew hasn’t been checking down to his RBs much over the last two weeks, with just three targets to the position in back-to-back games — and only two of those six targets went to Taylor.
I feel like I’m being fairly generous with Taylor’s underlying metrics and I’m still only projecting him for 2.0 receptions with around a 65% chance to stay under 2.5.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor Under 2.5 Receptions (-130)
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