NFL Best Bets for Week 17: Our Favorite Sunday Picks

NFL Best Bets for Week 17: Our Favorite Sunday Picks

Our staff has made its picks against the spread (ATS) and on totals as its NFL best bets for Week 17. Our favorite Sunday picks are on a pair of double-digit-point underdogs, as well as a pair of home favorites and over/unders.

Click on a bet below the navigate our NFL best bets.

By Mike Calabrese

The return of C.J. Stroud can't be overstated here. During a month-long run from Nov. 5-Dec. 3, the Texans averaged 26.6 points per game while posting a 4-1 straight-up (SU) record. Stroud accounted for 13 total touchdowns against five turnovers while pushing the ball down the field. During that stretch, his yards per attempt average was an aggressive 9.6. Stroud has also been lights out at NRG Stadium posting a TD-INT ratio of 16:4.

Without Stroud, things have fallen apart through the air. Case Keenum was Captain Checkdown against Tennessee with a QBR of 33.8. He was decidedly worse against Cleveland before Davis Mills took over. As a tandem, the Texans' backup quarterbacks yards per attempt average against Cleveland was a pitiful 4.3 yards.

With Stroud back, this offense can exploit the Tennessee defense's weak spot. The Titans' secondary ranks dead last in interception rate, while surrendering a completion percentage of 67.3% from opposing passers (29th). And now Sean Murphy-Bunting is banged up and at risk of missing this game on Sunday. Losing a competent starting cornerback from a unit that is already underperforming is bad news for the Titans.

And finally, there is the white flag factor here. Tennessee's season is over and they're currently in a logjam of teams between the projected fifth and ninth pick in the upcoming NFL Draft this spring. If they drop these final two games, the worst they could do would be the seventh overall pick. But if they were to win their final two games, that pick could slide as far back as 14th. For a team staring a rebuild in the face, the difference between the fifth pick and the 14th is enormous.

Meanwhile, the Texans' playoff odds jump from 36% to 51% with a win here at home. A loss would all but doom their chances (17%). Given the motivation, the massive upgrade at quarterback, and the Titans' injury issues, I would play this up to Houston-6.

By Brandon Anderson

Exactly what are the Falcons better at? Atlanta is built to run the football, but Chicago ranks 10th in Rushing DVOA while Atlanta is 21st. The Falcons are built to stop the run, but the Bears rate better at that too. The Bears are the better team and have been since the start of October with the gap only widening lately as Chicago cracks the top five in DVOA over the past six weeks.

Chicago should have a real home-field advantage too. The Falcons have been awful on the road (2-5), including losses to the Titans, Cardinals and Panthers, with the offense averaging under 14 points per game. Chicago has won four in a row at home and scored over 25 points per game in those contests, and the Bears' offense has been far better at home than on the road this season.

The NFC South is an ugly 16-26 ATS (38%) in non-division games, and Atlanta is 2-8 ATS itself. The Falcons also fit that trend of fading teams in must-win situations. Teams with a 40-to-60% win rate that's 5-to-25% above their opponent are 52-105-6 ATS (33%) in Week 16 or later, and it's even worse (12-34-3 ATS, 26%) if they won last week as Atlanta did. This line is giving the Falcons too much respect for beating a blah Colts team last week. The Falcons stink.

This is my favorite side of the week. It was stuck right at the key number all week, but you can snag a Bears -2.5 ticket at some books. Grab -2.5 if you can, but I'm happy to play Bears -3 if needed and expect Chicago to win with relative ease as the much better team playing good ball at home.

Pick: Bears -2.5 (-115)

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By John LanFranca

The Falcons' defensive DVOA ranking of 19 is deceiving considering they're seventh in the league in yards per play allowed this season and considering only one team has scored more than 15 points against them since their Week 11 bye.

The Bears' defensive turnaround has been one of the most impressive improvements we have seen throughout the season. Chicago is fourth in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed over its last 10 games (6.1), but more importantly surrenders a league-low 3.57 yards per carry to opposing ball carriers.

In this game, we just so happen to have two of the three run-heaviest teams in the league. Both the Bears and Falcons rush rate is above 48% for the season. In what is expected to be a neutral game script for both teams for a majority of the game, it's doubtful either team strays too far from their ground-heavy attack.

The problem for both offensive units here is that both defenses stuff the run at or behind the line of scrimmage at a 22% rate, ranking the Bears third in the league in this metric and the Falcons fourth. In a game where both quarterbacks will be facing many long down and distance situations on third down, and where the clock will be constantly running, I love a play on the under in the windy city.

I'd play this under down to 37.

Pick: Under 38 (-110)

By Brandon Anderson

Neither offense is great, and both defenses should have the advantage. The Bucs' defense has been stout and leads the league on third downs, where the Saints struggle. New Orleans has slipped on defense, but mostly against the run, and Tampa can't run anyway, but the Saints still rank top 10 against the pass. This total is rising with some defensive injuries, but that means it crossed 40 and 41 and hit 43 at one point, all of which are key numbers.

NFC South divisional games have been incredibly low-scoring this season. Eight of the nine previous division games topped out at 39 points, well under this total. Also, Todd Bowles has had Pete Carmichael's number, with the Saints averaging just 16.7 points per game in the past six meetings between these rivals. Additionally, these teams are a combined 19-11 to the under.

I like that the game is in Tampa. The Bucs' defense has been better at home (seventh compared to 16th on the road), while the offense has been much worse (24th to 10th). That's led to a huge discrepancy in scoring with Tampa Bay's home games at 34.6 points per game and under this line in six of seven, compared to 48.5 away from home.

By Anthony Dabbundo

It’s clear based on the last four weeks that the Patriots are still playing hard for Bill Belichick. The defense is still elite against the run, first in the league by EPA per rush allowed. The Bills have leaned heavily on the run game in the last month to make up for the fact that the pass offense is seriously lacking versatility. It’s been Stefon Diggs or bust and he’s been held below 50 yards in five of the last six games. The only game he went over was against a very poor Philadelphia secondary.

Whether Diggs isn’t healthy, isn’t happy or isn’t connected with Josh Allen, the pass offense around him is extremely fragile and can be slowed down if he’s not very efficient. Allen has used his legs a ton to extend drives and found James Cook out of the backfield to make up for Diggs' lacking production. It will be hard to make that work consistently against this quietly elite Patriots defense that ranks top 10 in yards per drive allowed this season.

The Bills are at home, but they haven’t been reliable all season as a big favorite. There’s too much sloppy play and offensive mistakes. The pressure is all on Buffalo here amid their red-hot winning run, and the Bills are overvalued as a result of the “must-win tax” placed on teams in must-win spots facing teams who are playing for nothing.

It’s still a division game, and the Patriots will keep it close enough to cover the inflated line.

Pick: Patriots +14 (-110)

By Brandon Anderson

Last year's Eagles would've run the ball 45 times and led this game by 24 at the half, but this year's Eagles haven't done that. Philadelphia's offense has not been great, and the defense has gotten worse and worse as the season has progressed. The Eagles are 26th in Defensive DVOA the last six weeks, including the bottom five against the run, while the Cardinals have been a top-five rushing offense with James Conner healthy.

I have a lot of concerns for the Eagles in this game. Everything lines up for an underdog script. Philadelphia is much worse in the first half on both sides of the ball, so that sets up Arizona to hang around early. You know Jonathan Gannon would love to get a result against his old team that effectively buried him upon leaving for the Cardinals. I think Arizona wants this one.

Kyler Murray is 23-14-2 ATS as a dog (62%), and this also sets up as a big Trey McBride game. He's been Murray's go-to target, averaging 7.3 catches for 76 yards, and the Eagles have been awful against tight ends.

Philadelphia's defense is bad enough to leave the back door open all game. The Eagles have only covered a spread this big twice all season. If you want to sprinkle the +525 moneyline for a shocking upset, I sure won't stop you.

Pick: Cardinals +12.5 (-110)

By Anthony Dabbundo

Philadelphia failed to cover the spread for the fifth consecutive week on Christmas in a 33-25 win against the Giants. Some fluke turnovers swung the game in the Giants' favor to remain competitive and the Eagles offense moved the ball with relative ease throughout, but problems still exist for the Eagles as a whole. DeVonta Smith commented after the game that the offense still isn’t right and they have two weeks to fix it. The consistent miscues all season have left the door open for inferior teams to hang around with the Eagles. As a result, the Cardinals have some life in this matchup.

Tommy DeVito was entirely ineffective on Monday, but the Eagles defense struggled to stop Tyrod Taylor once he came into the game in the second half. Taylor engineered four full drives and all four managed 30+ yards. There are a ton of holes in the Eagles back seven, especially over the middle, and the Cardinals use the middle of the field better than most offenses.

The Eagles have not been efficient enough at hitting explosive plays like they were last year. The defensive line didn’t generate a single sack last week against the most sacked offense in the NFL and even the run defense numbers have taken a slide backward in the last month. We saw this Cardinals offense go score for score with the 49ers outside of a Kyler Murray pick-six just two weeks ago as a double-digit underdog. They’ll move the ball on Philadelphia once again and stay competitive in this game.

It’s important to note that the Cardinals have an extra day of rest to get ready for this game, and the Eagles still have just two wins by double digits all year long. Philadelphia is a bit inflated as a result of the must-win tax, as well, and I’ll be betting Arizona to cover the spread.

Pick: Cardinals +12.5 (-110)

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By Brandon Anderson

It's no coincidence that the Raiders are still alive for the postseason. Las Vegas is playing genuinely good football, especially on defense, where the Raiders are now eighth in DVOA on the season and all the way up to second over the last six weeks, top five against both the run and the pass. Patrick Graham has his guys flying around the field, and that unit can wreak havoc on an inconsistent, beatable Colts offense.

Can the Raiders offense find any answers? The team has committed to the run under Pierce, and Zamir White has run well the last two weeks with Jacobs out. This could also be a good spot for Jakobi Meyers against a defense that's been terrible against WR2s.

The Colts are one of those must-win fade teams, and this is a prime spot. Teams that have won 40-to-60% of their games facing an opponent 5-to-25% worse from Week 16 forward are 52-104-6 ATS (33%), and it gets even worse if that team lost last week like Indy (21-55-2 ATS, 28%) or if the underdog won the week prior (12-34-3 ATS, 26%). Those trends say the Raiders are a very live dog.

Pick: Raiders +4 (-110)