NFL MVP Odds: Can Anyone Catch a Resting Lamar Jackson?

NFL MVP Odds: Can Anyone Catch a Resting Lamar Jackson? article feature image

Ryan Kang/Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens.

There so much to watch heading into NFL Week 18 with teams looking clinch a spot in the playoffs and players looking to make a couple of extra dollars from contract bonuses. But the teams with nothing to play for, their star players will be on the sideline in the final week of the season.

Lamar Jackson is the latest star player to be ruled out for the final slate of games this Sunday. Jackson has a massive lead on the NFL MVP odds board — he's -20000 to win the award — but he's also one of eight players who has been the MVP favorite this season.

Three of the other nine players listed to win MVP are also sitting out: Patrick Mahomes, Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy. Could Jackson sitting out open the door for another player to challenge him for MVP in the final week of the season? Here's a look at the latest MVP odds and the players who are expected to be active in Week 18.


PlayerNFL MVP OddsStatus for Week 18
Lamar Jackson-20000Sitting
Dak Prescott+1200Active
Josh Allen+2000Active
Christian McCaffrey+2500Sitting
Brock Purdy+3500Sitting
Tyreek Hill+5000Active
Tua Tagovailoa+10000Active
Jalen Hurts+20000Active
Patrick Mahomes+20000Sitting

Odds as of Thursday via DraftKings

Dak Prescott

Week 18 Opponent: Commanders

The Cowboys are 13-point road favorites against the Commanders and need either a win or an Eagles loss to clinch the NFC East and the No. 2 seed in the conference. Prescott is second in MVP odds at +1200; he was the co-favorite in Week 14 and the lone favorite in Week 15. He leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (32) entering Week 18, while the Commanders allow the most passing touchdowns this season (35).

The betting trends suggest the Cowboys will handle business. He’s 36-7 SU and 30-12-1 ATS as a favorite of 6 points or more, the second-most profitable quarterback of the past 20 years behind Tom Brady. All indications are that Prescott will play, but how much the Cowboys need him to play will depend on how competitive the Commanders are in their final game.

Josh Allen

Week 18 Opponent: Dolphins

The Bills have a shot to clinch the AFC East and the No. 2 seed in the conference when they head to Miami to face their division rival. A loss makes their path more difficult, which means the Bills should be going full throttle.

Allen had his best game of the season when these teams met in October with four touchdowns through the air in a 21-for-25 passing performance and a score on the ground. He's +2000 to win MVP entering Week 18 and briefly sat atop the odds board in Week 5.

The Bills are 3-point favorites on the road and have dominated this matchup over the past few seasonsm going 6-1 straight up against the Dolphins since the 2020-21 season. Allen is 16-8 SU and 11-13 ATS in night games, including 8-6 SU away from home. He is 13-5 SU as a favorite at night.

Tyreek Hill / Tua Tagovailoa

Week 18 Opponent: Bills

Hill enters the final week of the season leading the NFL in receiving yards (1,717) and can move up the board depending on how well he plays Sunday. No wide receiver has ever won NFL MVP, but Hill is ahead of his own quarterback by a significant margin. Tagovailoa is at the head of the most explosive offense, leading the NFL in passing yards (4451) and completion percentage (69.6%). Miami's quarterback has been a favorite or co-favorite three weeks this season, most recently in Week 7. He's been good against teams with a record above .500 in his career (8-7-1 ATS) and most of that success has come at home (5-0 ATS).

Jalen Hurts

Week 18 Opponent: Giants

The Eagles have fallen off over their past five games. Their only win came against the Giants, who they face to close out the season.

Hurts is tied with Mahomes for the longest odds to win MVP entering the final week of the season, but the Eagles need a win (and a Cowboys loss) to secure the No. 2 seed. Hurts was the MVP favorite or co-favorite for three straight weeks entering Week 13 before the Eagles went on this skid. He has impressive numbers — 23 passing touchdowns and 15 rushing touchdowns — but has a steep hill to climb compared to the rest of the group.

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