Colts vs. Texans Odds, Predictions, Picks For NFL Week 13: A Jonathan Taylor Prop Worth Betting This Sunday

Colts vs. Texans Odds

After a close home loss last week at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Indianapolis Colts will hope to rebound when they head to NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans on Sunday afternoon.

The Colts (6-6) found themselves with a solid 24-14 lead against the Buccaneers at halftime last week, but surrendered 24 second-half points in an eventual 38-31 loss. The Texans (2-9), meanwhile, are coming off a close loss of their own, as they fell to the New York Jets last week by the score of 21-14 at home.

In a game between two division opponents that know each other well, should we be looking away from the spread and total — and perhaps to the props market — for our Week 13 action in this AFC South matchup?

Colts vs. Texans Matchup

Colts Will Rely On Taylor

Jonathan Taylor stunned even his most adamant supporters two week ago when he annihilated the Bills for 200 total yards and five touchdowns. While he came back down to earth last week with a mere 97 all-purpose yards and a touchdown against the Buccaneers, Taylor has been the focal point of this offense all year. He’ll have another smash spot in this one against a 25th-ranked Texans rush defense that just gave up more than 150 rushing yards to the Jets last week.

Quarterback Carson Wentz is also having a strong first season in Indianapolis. He’s thrown for 2,790 yards, 21 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He’ll have a bit of a tougher task this week against a surprisingly strong Texans secondary that currently ranks eighth against the pass on the season. Expect Wentz to attack cornerback Desmond King, who projects to have a sizeable disadvantage against each of his top weapons, T.Y. Hilton and Michael Pittman Jr.

Per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup tool, Hilton will have an 81.9 overall matchup advantage against King, while Pittman will have a 71.6 advantage himself. Between the two, King is expected to be on one of them for 41 total snaps, so there will be plenty of opportunity to take advantage of this mismatch for Wentz.

Hilton, however, has struggled since his return from injury in Week 10. In that time, he’s yet to top 30 receiving yards in any performance and has not seen more than five targets in any of those games. Pittman hasn’t been much better, compiling just 76 total receiving yards over the last two weeks. Given the success the running game has seen this season, expect to see a large dose of Taylor again in this one.

Texans Looking To Bounce Back

The Texans look to rebound this week at home after a surprising loss last week to the Jets. After a two-game stretch that saw him combine for just 347 passing yards, zero passing touchdowns and three interceptions, quarterback Tyrod Taylor bounced back last week with a more palatable 154-2-1 line. He’ll need to do more with his arm this week if he wants to keep up with this potent Colts offense.

Taylor will have a chance to do just that in a Week 13 matchup that does favor the passing game.  While the Colts defense ranks a stout third against the run, they currently rank 20th against the pass.

That means plenty of targets for top receiving option Brandin Cooks. While his individual matchups are not particularly strong — he projects to have just a 55.3 matchup advantage over Xavier Rhodes and a 45.5 advantage over Rock Ya-Sin, his primary defenders in this one — he’ll be Taylor’s first look on the majority of passing downs.

That said, Cooks has struggled in similar situations this season. Just three weeks ago, he saw 14 targets from Taylor that resulted in just six catches for 56 yards. Over the last two weeks, he has totals of 45 and 18 receiving yards, respectively.

Don’t expect much from this Texans running game, either. The matchup is difficult and this rushing attack has been subpar of late, to say the least. The combination of Rex Burkhead, David Johnson and Taylor has accounted for fewer than 100 total rushing yards in each of the last two games.

Colts vs. Texans Predictions, Picks

While his 104.5-yard rushing prop in this one is certainly uncomfortable given the size of the number, it’s undeniable how dominant Jonathan Taylor has been this season, particularly against subpar rush defenses. The good news for Taylor this week is that this 25th-ranked Texans defense certainly fits that mold.

The 100-yard threshold has also been something that we’ve seen from him quite often this season. In 12 games, Taylor has surpassed that mark six times, with three performances of 140+ yards. In fact, the first time these two teams met this season, Taylor pummeled them to the tune of 145 rushing yards on just 14 carries.

Given the relative strength of the Texans' pass defense, we should see Taylor easily surpass the 14 carries he saw in the first meeting between these two teams and cruise past 100 rushing yards with ease. Don’t let the high total scare you away — take the over on this Taylor rushing prop and play it up through 109.5 yards if necessary.

Pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 104.5 Rushing Yards | Bet to: 109.5