49ers vs. Seahawks Odds, NFL Predictions, Picks: Hold Your Nose to Bet Seattle on Sunday in Week 13?
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Wilson.
- The Seahawks have looked like a shell of their former selfs, but that doesn't mean they don't have value as home dogs against the 49ers.
- Our analyst breaks down the latest 49ers vs. Seahawks odds in order to make his predictions and picks below.
|Time||4:25 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Seattle Seahawks have just a 2% chance to make the playoffs. Last week, their chances were slightly better at 6%.
Seattle hosts the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, and the critical question for this matchup is whether Pete Carroll’s team has thrown in the towel on its season at 3-8. That answer will be a crucial part of our handicap for this one, and we’ll also try to pinpoint the reason behind the 49ers’ recent resurgence.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
49ers vs. Seahawks Injury Report
- WR Deebo Samuel (groin): Out
- RB Trey Sermon (ankle): Out
- LB Dre Greenlaw (groin): Out
- DL Maurice Hurst (calf): Out
- LB Fred Warner (hamstring): Doubtful
- LB Marcell Harris (concussion): Questionable
- G Damien Lewis (elbow): Doubtful
- RB Rashaad Penny (hamstring): Questionable
- RB Alex Collins (abdomen): Questionable
49ers vs. Seahawks Matchup
|49ers Offense||DVOA Rank||Seahawks Defense|
|49ers Defense||DVOA Rank||Seahawks Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Surging 49ers Powered by Offense
It wasn’t that long ago that the 49ers were floundering at 3-5. Well, they have since put together a three-game winning streak to become the sixth seed in the NFC.
San Francisco has scored at least 30 points per game during the streak, including in four of its last five games. That’s a big reason why the Niners are ranked third in offensive DVOA.
While quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is often derided by those always looking for a scapegoat, he’s currently ranked seventh with a Total QBR of 58.5.
However, I’m not ready to give him his roses just yet. The reality is that the 49ers have simplified their offense to give Garoppolo much easier throws. That’s why he’s tied for 21st in intended air yards, according to Pro-Football-Reference. Garoppolo’s 13:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio is decent, but it’s not necessarily elite when compared to the numbers the NFL’s best quarterbacks.
The real reason for the 49ers’ resurgence is that they’ve placed a greater emphasis on running the football. Only the Eagles (49.73%) run the ball more often than the 49ers (48.6%). San Francisco is averaging 130.9 rushing yards per game but during this three-game winning streak, that number has ballooned up to 178.3.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has done something unique to reignite his team’s rushing attack, and that’s utilizing wide receiver Deebo Samuel in the backfield. Samuel is averaging 72.5 rushing yards and 10 yards per carry over his last two games.
Unfortunately, Samuel is going to miss this game due to a groin injury. It wouldn’t surprise me if Shanahan looks to work the same magic with another player filling in the same role for Samuel. Whether that player can replicate his success is another issue.
Seahawks Need to Bounce Back
I’ll admit I’m a bit unsure of what to expect from the Seahawks in this game. For one, they’ve scored an average of 9.3 points over their last three games. The offense has looked broken at times, and it wouldn’t surprise me if quarterback Russell Wilson hasn’t been at 100% in the games since his return from a finger injury.
However, perhaps Wilson is starting to recapture his form after engineering a two-minute drive at the end of the Monday night loss to the Washington Football Team. Wilson capped off the drive with a 32-yard touchdown to Freddie Swain with just 15 seconds left.
WOW. @DangeRussWilson throws a STRIKE down the middle to Freddie Swain for the TD
— NFL Australia (@NFLAustralia) November 30, 2021
Wilson’s longest pass in the game even went for 55 yards. These might be positive signs to take into a Week 13 matchup against a 49ers team that is ranked 22nd in pass defense DVOA. Keep in mind that Seattle ranks seventh in explosive pass rate (10%), per Sharp Football Stats.
Defensively, the Seahawks will need to have a plan to stop the 49ers’ rushing attack. Opponents are running the ball 43.37% of the time against Seattle, but that number is up to 47.37% over its last three games. Some of that has to do with Seattle’s opponents often holding the lead late in those games, so it makes sense for opponents to continue to run the ball and take time off the clock.
However, although the Seahawks are 23rd in allowing 124.9 rushing yards per game, they’ve been very stingy on a per-play basis, ranking in a tie for second by allowing just 3.9 yards per carry.
49ers vs. Seahawks Predictions, Picks
From a power rating perspective, there’s a case to be made for the Seahawks in this spot.
If you’re looking for a spot to buy low on them, this might just be it. Even with one win in its last seven games, Seattle (0.071) still has a higher point per play margin than San Francisco (0.035) on the year. If you’re still undecided, here are some key trends to keep in mind for the game:
- San Francisco is just 5-14-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last 20 meetings vs. Seattle.
- The 49ers are 2-7-1 ATS on the road against the Seahawks in their last 10 meetings.
But here’s the kicker. Seattle is a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog of at least 3.5 points and on a losing streak of at least two games.
I think I just talked myself into a wager. There’s no question that this is a hold-your-nose type of bet. As a result, I’ll limit my risk to just a half-unit of my bankroll on the lowly Seahawks to cover the spread at +3.5.
Pick: Seahawks +3.5 | Bet to: +3
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