Jets-Bills Odds, Predictions, NFL Picks: Bet This Stefon Diggs Prop For Week 10 Matchup
Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images. Pictured: Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
Bills vs. Jets Odds
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
After a surprising loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road last week, the Buffalo Bills will look to bounce back in a big way when they visit MetLife Stadium on Sunday to take on the New York Jets.
The Bills (5-3) struggled mightily on offense, failing to score a touchdown, and allowed just enough on defense for the Jaguars to win on a late field goal. Meanwhile, the Jets (2-6) found themselves on the losing end again in a 45-30 loss to the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday Night Football.
In a potential smash spot for Buffalo’s offensive weapons, should we be looking to the player prop market as a potential focus in this Week 10 AFC East matchup?
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Bills vs. Jets Injury Report
- LB Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring): Out
- RB Zack Moss (concussion): Questionable
- QB Zack Wilson (knee): Doubtful
- T Chuma Edoga (knee): Doubtful
- RB Tevin Coleman (hamstring): Questionable
- WR Corey Davis (hip): Questionable
- DL Shaq Lawson (hamstring): Questionable
- OL Alijah Vera-Tucker (toe): Questionable
Bills vs. Jets Matchup
|Bills Offense||DVOA Rank||Jets Defense|
|Bills Defense||DVOA Rank||Jets Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Bills Need to Bounce Back
The Bills will look to put last week’s disastrous performance against the Jaguars behind them when they face New York. The matchup for quarterback Josh Allen and the offense couldn’t be better, either. The Bills will line up against the Jets’ last-ranked defense in total DVOA, their 30th-ranked pass defense and 31st-ranked rush defense. Given the disparity between these units, the Bills should be able to score any way they want to in this game.
More often than not this season, that’s been through the air. That bodes well for top receiving option Stefon Diggs, who has one of the best individual matchups on the slate, according to PFF’s WR/CB Matchup tool. Diggs will have an 87.3 matchup advantage against his primary defenders, second only to Chris Godwin among all wide receivers. Diggs is averaging 9.1 targets per game, so the chance for a ceiling day will certainly be there.
Despite the poor performance last week, I expect the Bills to rebound and control this game from the start. Allen, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss should also all be able to move the ball smoothly when called upon.
Jets Have Tough Task in Divisional Matchup
Mike White will get another start this week and look to prove that his early success in New York was not a fluke. White has surprised even the most optimistic Jets fans, compiling 702 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions in what amounts to just about two full games this season.
However, he’ll have a tough task against this top-ranked Bills defense. In fact, not only do they have the top overall defense in the league, per Football Outsiders, but they also have the best pass defense. Despite his success, it’s likely we see the Jets try to limit passing work as much as possible while the game is close. That like won’t last long, though, as oddsmakers expect things to be heavily favored toward the Bills given the 12.5-point spread.
Instead, expect the Jets to try and establish the run against this third-ranked rush defense. Rookie Michael Carter has shown flashes of success early in his career, but given he’s averaging just 3.8 yards per carry, expectations should be kept in check for Week 10.
NFL Pick: Bills vs. Jets
Assuming the Bills can put last week’s poor performance behind them, I expect this offense to regain form and remind everyone why they were an early-season Super Bowl favorite.
When this team has excelled in similar scenarios in the past, it’s been largely through the air. As the top receiving option with a plus matchup, we could be looking at a potential ceiling game for Diggs here.
If you read the Bills-Jaguars Week 9 game guide, you’ll remember I was on this same prop. Even in what turned out to be the worst-case scenario, Diggs came through and hit the over on his 81.5 yardage prop. This week, oddsmakers have inexplicably lowered his prop to 76.5 yards in an even better spot.
The targets will be there, the matchup is pristine and the Bills will be looking to make a statement. Once again, give me the over on this Diggs receiving prop.
Pick: Stefon Diggs Over 76.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to: 84.5
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