Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds, Predictions, NFL Picks: Will The Real Kansas City Show Up On Sunday Night Football?
Getty Images. Pictured: Derek Carr and Patrick Mahomes (left to right)
- The Chiefs are 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games, but have oddsmakers overcompensated against the Raiders?
- For Raiders-Chiefs the line has stayed steadfast at Kansas City -2.5 all week across most books as of early Sunday evening.
- Our expert doesn't love that line, but he's looking forward to live betting this SNF matchup.
|Time||8:20 p.m. ET|
It’s an AFC West showdown on Sunday night in Sin City as the 5-3 Raiders host the 5-4 Chiefs in a game that will have meaningful implications in a cluttered division. In fact, all four teams in the AFC West sit within a half-game of each other coming into Week 10.
Las Vegas will try to rebound from a road loss across the country in New York in a game where it outplayed the Giants statistically. Meanwhile, the Chiefs won their second straight, but there was nothing easy about the victory once again. Kansas City held on to beat Green Bay sans Aaron Rodgers by a final score of 13-7, in large part due to Packer miscues on special teams. That came one week after beating the Giants at home by only three points. The two wins have potentially saved the Chiefs’ season, but they couldn’t have inspired much confidence in K.C. fans.
Can the Chiefs eventually flip a switch or is this the new normal? That will continue to dominate the headlines in Kansas City.
This series has been dominated over the years by the Chiefs, who have owned this division in recent years. Since 2015, Kansas City boasts a 31-6 record against division foes with one of those losses coming last year with its backups in the regular-season finale. Two others came on the final play of the game.
That said, the division is much tougher in 2021. Over the previous three seasons, the 2018 Chargers were the only other AFC West team to finish with a winning record. Plus, this clearly has not been the same dominant Chiefs club we are used to seeing.
Can they avoid dropping to 0-2 in the division and falling to .500? It certainly won’t be easy against a Raiders team that easily could have swept Kansas City last year in two high-scoring affairs.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Chiefs vs. Raiders Injury Report
- RT Lucas Niang (ribs): Out
- RT Mike Remmers (knee): Out
- CB L’Jarius Sneed (ankle): Questionable
- LB Nick Kwiatkowski (ankle): Out
- DB Tyree Gillespie (hamstring): Out
- CB Amik Robertson (hip): Doubtful
- DB Keisean Nixon (ankle): Doubtful
Chiefs vs. Raiders Matchup
|Chiefs Offense||DVOA Rank||Raiders Defense|
|Chiefs Defense||DVOA Rank||Raiders Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Will Chiefs Offense Of Old Emerge?
Who are the Chiefs? That’s a good question. They still have a subpar defense as expected, but it’s performed even worse than many projected, ranking in the bottom five of DVOA. They’ve struggled against the run as usual but the pass defense has deteriorated compared to recent years. Yes, the defense has gotten a bit healthier and looked better over the past two weeks, but that came against a depleted Giants offense and a Packers team that had Jordan Love making his first career start.
While the defense has regressed a bit, it’s the offense that has taken a major step back. It seems as if teams have figured out how to slow down this explosive offense. The formula is don’t blitz and play your safeties deep to take away the deep pass that Patrick Mahomes loves. And if you can get natural pressure with your edge rushers without blitzing, even better — as we saw with the Bucs in the Super Bowl.
Well, the Raiders can certainly do the latter with Yannick Ngakoue and Maxx Crosby. That duo has helped the Raiders post a top-10 pressure rate, despite having the lowest blitz rate in the entire league. That’s exactly how you need to attack Mahomes up front, especially with a young offensive line that will be down its top two right tackles.
Can a depleted and underwhelming secondary hold up? That depends on how the Chiefs approach this game. Will they simply take what they are given and methodically march it down the field. They have to demonstrate patience and change their identity. Run and short passes draw the safeties in to set up the deep shots. The league has adjusted. Now, the Chiefs have to.
Although, even with the regression, the Chiefs still rank in the top five in the NFL in EPA per play and Success Rate on offense. That speaks to their talent level. A few tweaks and a few less turnovers — and this offense could be back before we know it.
Raiders Can Beat — Or Lose To — Anybody
Who are the Raiders? I think most have a better handle on them. They are about a league-average to slightly-below-league-average team with the potential to beat or lose to anybody on any given week since Derek Carr is playing at such a high level.
The Raiders offense has been just okay from a season-long metrics standpoint. Their game has taken a step back with a brand new offensive line, but that group has actually performed at a league-average level across the board. The Raiders have to be happy with that level given how much they lost in the offseason up front. And you’d have to imagine they can make some hay on the ground against a Chiefs defense that perennially struggles to defend the run against anybody.
As I mentioned above, Carr is playing at a very high level, but the vertical passing attack is missing after Henry Ruggs III was released. Carr can at least still lean on Darren Waller — one of the best tight ends in the league.
The most surprising development about the Raiders has been the defense. New defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, who had as much success as anybody against K.C. over the past few seasons with the Chargers, has done a tremendous job with this unit.
Vegas actually ranks 12th in both Success Rate and EPA per Play on defense. That’s a remarkable turnaround for a group that doesn’t boast an elite level of talent.
NFL Pick: Chiefs vs. Raiders
Until I see something change with this Chiefs offense (and a sustained improvement on defense), I refuse to bet them as a favorite. There’s a reason they are 2-7 ATS this season with the league’s worst cover margin and are just 4-16 ATS in their past 20 games. It’s hard to get what we’ve seen from the Chiefs in the past out of our heads, but we are into mid-November. This is a new Chiefs team until further notice.
That said, I don’t see a ton of value in the Raiders below a field goal. The Raiders were seven-point underdogs at home last year in this matchup and projected as seven-point underdogs in the lookahead market in the preseason for this game.
Have the Chiefs really dropped that much from preseason expectations? I don’t think that’s unrealistic. You also have to consider the improvements on Las Vegas’ defensive side of the ball, which I don’t think the market anticipated.
I just don’t see any pregame value from a side or total perspective. I don’t mind the Raiders as a teaser piece since you can get them from under a field goal to over a touchdown. Despite the high total, that looks like a rock-solid play here if you can open a teaser for a future week.
I’m personally waiting and betting the Raiders live. The Chiefs live with a deficit is usually always a target of mine, but I just need to see this offense adjust before I trust them. If I can grab Vegas at +4 or better live early on, I’m in. A deficit of say 10-0 early in the game would be ideal.
I’m not a regular-season props player, but I may dabble on some Darren Waller over catches/yards here. In five career games against the Chiefs, he has 28 catches on 33 targets for 322 yards and two touchdowns. And we know Daniel Sorensen will at least give up one touchdown this game. It could very well come against Waller.
Stay tuned in the Action App for any live plays or Waller props I play.
Pick: Live Bet Raiders +4
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