Dolphins-Jets Odds, Predictions, Picks: This Jaylen Waddle Prop Bet Is Best Play For Week 11 Matchup

Dolphins vs. Jets Odds

After a big win against the Baltimore Ravens at home last week, the Miami Dolphins look to build on that momentum when they visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon.

The Dolphins (3-7) kept the Ravens offense in check all day last time out, capping off a strong performance with 16 fourth-quarter points to put away one of the AFC’s top teams. The Jets (2-6), meanwhile, found themselves on the losing end of another blowout loss at home in a 45-17 loss to the Buffalo Bills.

In a game with a relatively close 3.5-point spread between two division rivals, should we be looking elsewhere — perhaps to the prop market — for value in this Week 11 contest?

Dolphins vs. Jets Matchup

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Dolphins Offense Should Feast

Tua Tagovailoa will get the start after recovering from a rib injury that has kept him from starting since Week 8. He’ll look to build on what were back-to-back strong performances that saw him complete 74.7% of his passes for 620 yards and six touchdowns in the two games prior to his absence.

The matchup in his return could not be better. This Dolphins offense will face off against a Jets defense that currently ranks 32nd in Total DVOA, 32nd against the pass and 31st against the run. In short, the Dolphins should be able to pick their poison in this one.

In Tagovailoa’s starts this season, the preferred strategy has typically been via the pass. In his four completed starts this year, the Dolphins have passed 39 times or more in three of four outings. Three of those four were also decided by three points or fewer, so this is also not just a result of garbage-time passing work in blowout losses.

That bodes well for the Dolphins pass catchers in this one. Per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup tool, Jaylen Waddle will have the best individual matchup of the receiving group. While he’s only averaging 55 yards per game on the season, those numbers have been on the rise. In fact, over his last five games, Waddle is averaging 65.2 yards per outing. He’s also averaging 8.4 targets per game this season, so the opportunity for a ceiling day against this defense will certainly be there.

Jets Likely Won't Ask Much of Flacco

After being traded back to the team following Zack Wilson’s knee injury just a few weeks ago, Joe Flacco will make his first start of the season on Sunday. Expectations will be low considering this will be his first start since last season, and last year’s results were not stellar. In five 2020 starts for New York, he averaged just 173 yards per game and threw for only six touchdowns.

While the matchup isn’t overly imposing (the Dolphins rank 16th in Total DVOA thus far), this defense has been playing better of late. Last week, they held the potent Ravens offense to just 10 points and the week before held the Texans to just nine points.

Given this is Flacco’s first start in nearly a year, the Jets will likely hope to lean on the running game in this one. Michael Carter and Ty Johnson have formed an uninspiring combo on the ground thus far (Carter is averaging 3.6 yards per carry, Johnson just 3.4), but they have found some success in the passing game. Last week against the Bills, the duo combined for nine receptions and 79 yards via the air. Expect more of the same here against this improved Dolphins defense.

NFL Pick: Dolphins vs. Jets

In a game that oddsmakers expect to remain relatively close given this 3.5-point spread, I expect the Dolphins to employ a strategy similar to what we’ve seen in Tagovailoa’s other starts this season: a heavy dose of passing plays designed to exploit this 32nd-ranked Jets secondary.

With fellow wide receiver DeVante Parker still on injured reserve, Waddle should be in line for another big day. Given the matchup and projected game flow, it’s hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t exceed the 8.4 targets per game and 65.2 receiving yards he’s averaged over his last five games.

While Tagovailoa will certainly spread the ball around, his former Alabama teammate will undoubtedly be the first look on most passing downs.

I’m taking the over on this Waddle receiving prop at 62.5 yards and will be playing it up to 65.5.

Pick: Jaylen Waddle Over 62.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to: Over 65.5 yards