Eagles-Broncos Odds, Predictions, NFL Picks: Score Will Stay Low in Denver With Revamped Offenses
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Hurts.
- The line for this matchup opened at Broncos -2.5 and has fallen to -1 or a pick'em across nearly every book as of late Sunday afternoon.
- The total, meanwhile, has stayed steadfast at 44.5 all week since lines opened.
- Week 10 will feature a run-heavy Philadelphia attack and a conservative Denver offense, which should keep the score low.
|Time||4:25 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Parx. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
In the last two weeks, the Eagles have fallen into an offense that much better suits their playstyle. Behind their run game, Philly was able to run up the score against Detroit, then play the Chargers to a nail-biter finish. This run-first mentality better suits their personnel and allows Jalen Hurts to play within his comfort zone. We will see if they can continue their success on the ground against a Broncos team that stifled the Cowboys in Week 9.
Denver shocked the NFL world by dominating Dallas and putting up a score of 30-0 before garbage time kicked in. In that game, the Broncos defense looked like we thought it would all year, and their offense did whatever it wanted. After its four-game losing streak and tight win over Washington, Denver needed a game like that to build confidence. Now, it will need to keep the good times rolling to enter the bye week on a high note.
These teams both have started to find their stride the last couple of weeks, but I’ve seen too far of lows to trust either. Let’s see if we can find value on the total instead of the spread in this one.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Eagles vs. Broncos Injury Report
- DE Josh Sweat (concussion): Questionable
- OT Andre Dillard (knee): Questionable
- OT Garett Bolles (ankle): Out
- OT Bobby Massie (ankle): Out
- RB Mike Boone (hip): Questionable
- WR Tim Patrick (knee): Questionable
- TE Albert Okwuegbunam (knee): Questionable
- G Dalton Risner (foot): Questionable
- CB Patrick Surtain (knee): Questionable
- DL McTelvin Agim (knee): Questionable
- OLB Malik Reed (hip): Questionable
- S Caden Sterns (shoulder): Questionable
- ILB Baron Browning (back): Questionable
Eagles vs. Broncos Matchup
|Eagles Offense||DVOA Rank||Broncos Defense|
|Eagles Defense||DVOA Rank||Broncos Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Eagles Must Ground Their Offense
After seeing their success on the ground, it is hard to imagine why the Eagles tried a pass-heavy attack to start the season. Mostly, this is because of how their offensive line has bullied opposing defenses. The Eagles have ranked first in yards before contact per carry at 3.5, per Pro-Football-Reference. Besides their offensive line, the threat of Jalen Hurts being a ball carrier gives the defense another man to account for.
The revamped ground attack has helped them rush for an average of 206 yards the last two games. Of course, leaning on the run has put a stall on the passing game, as they have thrown for an average of 134.5 yards.
Despite the drop in production numbers, the passing game looks to function more efficiently behind the run-first attack. Against the Chargers, Hurts only threw 17 pass attempts but averaged his highest yards per attempt and his second-best quarterback rating of the year.
Defensively, the Eagles have found success against the run but struggled against the pass. Philly allows the sixth-fewest yards per attempt on the ground and has not allowed 100 yards rushing in its last two games.
Against the pass, one reason for the Eagles’ struggles is they choose not to disguise their coverage. This allows quarterbacks to make their read and know where to put the ball pre-snap. This could be trouble against a smart veteran like Teddy Bridgewater.
Can Broncos Continue Dominance of Sub-.500 Teams?
Denver’s offense finally showed the upside we saw in the first few weeks of the season. The Broncos ran the ball extremely effectively with both of their running backs, and Bridgewater made a couple of big throws to blow the game open.
One reason the offense looked better is a pivot to a more conservative passing attack. In the first six weeks, Bridgewater averaged 9.52 air yards per attempt. In the last three weeks, he is down to 6.38.
The return of Jerry Jeudy has helped make this offense’s transition possible. Jeudy typically operates out of the slot and uses his excellent route running to get open quickly. When he was out, Bridgewater was forced to attack outside more. On Sunday, we saw Bridgewater play more comfortably and feed Jeudy for a team-high eight targets for 69 yards. As long as Jeudy stays on the field, this offense should continue to click.
Defensively, the Broncos have had an up-and-down season. Excluding the Cowboys game, if the team is currently below .500, the Broncos shut them down. If above .500, Denver has not been able to stop them. This has led to a large discrepancy between raw stats and DVOA. Per DVOA, Denver ranks 22nd defensively, however, it still has allowed the second-fewest points and sixth-fewest yards. The Eagles are currently below .500, so we will see if that trend continues.
NFL Pick: Eagles vs. Broncos
It is tough to take a side in this one as each team has shown high highs and low lows. However, the total should have some value in it.
The Eagles offense is run first and should keep the clock moving. We have seen the Eagles simply run up and down the field on opponents in recent weeks, but I doubt Vic Fangio allows that. We saw the Broncos force Dallas away from the run, and I expect them to make Hurts beat them. While Hurts has been excellent for fantasy, he typically pads his numbers in garbage time. I doubt Denver gets that kind of lead in this game.
For Denver, I believe we saw the apex of what they can be last week. The result was a 30-point outing. Even though the Broncos played near-perfect offensively, their drives were methodical and ate the clock. The conservative style does match Denver’s personnel and increases its chances of winning, but not necessarily its points scored.
Trust both teams to rely on their revamped offenses and keep the scoring low.
Pick: Under 45.5 | Bet to: 44
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