Jaguars vs. Titans Odds, Predictions, Picks: Expect Plenty of Points In AFC South Showdown For NFL Week 14
Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Tennessee Titans standout Julio Jones.
- While we're not expecting fireworks in this AFC South showdown between the Jaguars and Titans, plenty of points will still be scored.
- Find our analyst's predictions and picks based on the latest Jaguars vs. Titans odds below.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
On the heels of a blowout loss last week at the hands of the Los Angeles Rams, the Jacksonville Jaguars will hope to rebound this week when they head to Nissan Stadium on Sunday to take on the Tennessee Titans.
The Jaguars (2-10) struggled to get anything going at all on offense, losing 37-7 and seeing their lone touchdown coming on a short run by Carlos Hyde in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the Titans (8-4) are coming off a large 36-13 loss of their own, falling to the New England Patriots on the road in their last outing.
While both teams have struggled offensively of late, the current total sits at a relatively low 43.5 points (check real-time NFL odds here). Is there value on the total in this AFC South matchup or should we look elsewhere for our Week 14 NFL action?
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Jaguars vs. Titans Injury Report
- OL Brandon Linder (back): Out
- CB Jackrabbit Jenkins (ankle): Out
- LB David Long (hamstring): Out
- DL Teair Tart (ankle): Out
- TE Tommy Hudson (ankle): Out
Jaguars vs. Titans Matchup
|Jaguars Offense||DVOA Rank||Titans Defense|
|Jaguars Defense||DVOA Rank||Titans Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Jaguars Need Morale Boost
Trevor Lawrence has failed to live up to the sky-high expectations that the Jaguars and their fans had for the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Through 12 games, Lawrence has completed just 58% of his passes and has thrown for 2,514 yards, with just nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
That said, there’s reason for optimism this week. When these teams met earlier in the season, Lawrence had one of his better games, throwing for 273 yards and adding a touchdown via the air and ground. The Jaguars also scored 19 points, tied for their third-highest total on the season.
While they ultimately lost the game, they were able to move the ball well on offense. Against a 23rd-ranked Titans defense that has been ravaged with injuries, there’s no reason that they shouldn’t be able to replicate that success here in Week 14.
If that’s going to happen, the ground game will be important. Running back James Robinson has been their best offensive player this season, compiling 887 all-purpose yards and seven touchdowns thus far.
While he only saw five carries in last week’s game, he was recovering from multiple injuries in that one and suffered from an early turnover. He was a full-go in practice Friday, and head coach Urban Meyer reassured the media that there will be no prolonged punishment for the fumble, so I’m expecting a full workload for him.
Titans Need to Bounce Back
After back-to-back losses prior to their bye, the Titans will look to right the ship this week in a matchup they dominated back in Week 5. While injured Derrick Henry carried the load with 130 yards and three touchdowns, there’s reason to believe the Titans can replicate that game plan again.
In Henry’s absence, they’ve found success running the ball with the combination of Dontrell Hilliard and D’Onta Foreman, a duo that just combined for 140 yards on 31 carries two weeks ago against a tough Patriots defense. Against this 17th-ranked Jaguars rush defense, similar success should be on the horizon.
The Titans will also have Julio Jones back for the first time since Week 9, which will help open things up against a Jacksonville secondary that has failed to contain anyone this season. While Jones hasn’t put up WR1 numbers this year as many expected, he was also previously competing with A.J. Brown for targets in a run-first offense. With Brown out, he’ll have a path toward a big day against this 31st-ranked pass defense.
Jaguars vs. Titans Predictions, Picks
While it’s hard to get excited about this Jaguars — and rightly so — the matchup here dictates they should actually be able to move the ball effectively against a Titans defense that has not only struggled of late, but also surrendered the Jaguars third-highest point total of the season in their first matchup.
To be clear, I’m not projecting a Jacksonville offensive breakout here. I’m not even suggesting that they’ll cover this eight-point spread. However, I do think the Jaguars will be able to score enough points here to get us to an over in this Week 14 matchup.
Not only have they already found some degree of success in this same spot earlier this year, scoring 19 points in a loss, but they’re also taking on a depleted Titans defense that has allowed an average of 26 points per game over their last three. On the other side, the Titans will have Jones back and have already proven their running game can survive the loss of Henry. Against a poor Jacksonville defense, there should be little resistance.
Given the above, there’s certainly value on the over at the current number of 43.5 points. Sharp money has also found their way to the same conclusion. Per our Sports Insights tool, 70% of the money in this matchup is on the over, compared to just 44% of total tickets at time of writing, implying sharps have loaded up on it.
The current number of 43.5 is a go on the over, but I’d hesitate to play it if it moved above the key number of 44 in this matchup.
Pick: Total Over 43.5 | Bet to: 44
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