Saints vs. Eagles Odds, Predictions, Picks: Philadelphia Has Edge To Win This NFL Week 11 Matchup

Saints vs. Eagles Odds

The New Orleans Saints came up just short last week as they failed to convert a two-point conversion with a minute left in the fourth quarter, which would've tied the game against the Titans.

It was the second straight loss for the Saints as they dropped to 5-4 on the year, one game behind the Buccaneers for first place in the division. They'll look to bounce back when they head to Philadelphia to take on an Eagles team that's still searching for its first home win of the season.

This game opened as a pick 'em, but we're now seeing the Eagles as high as a three-point favorite, with the Saints dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball.

While I agree with the line move, I'm not sure I'm ready to go all-in on the Eagles just yet.

Saints vs. Eagles Matchup

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Saints Defense Has Carried Team

Even with Drew Brees retiring and Jameis Winston suffering a season-ending injury, you could make the argument that it's been the Saints defense that's led the team over the last few years. Only the Bills (135) and Patriots (177) have allowed fewer points this season than the Saints (178).

Football Outsiders has the Saints sixth overall in defensive DVOA. However, against the run, they're ranked first in the league. Their run defense will be particularly crucial against an Eagles offense ranked third in rushing yards with 144.5 per game.

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is a big reason for their success in the running game. Hurts leads the team with 5.7 yards per carrying and also 549 rushing yards on the year. But if you're a New Orleans fan looking for some optimism, you'd be pleased to know that the Saints have already faced three teams ranked in the top 10 in offensive rush DVOA, and they're 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread.

Offensively, I'm not sure you can ask much more from backup quarterback Trevor Siemian. He's replaced Winston as the starter, and while he hasn't been as efficient in his completion percentage, he's thrown five touchdowns and has yet to toss an interception. You'd have to go back to the 2016 and 2017 seasons with the Broncos to find when Siemian last started consecutive games.

The reality is that the former Northwestern product will likely never be a quarterback with a high completion rate. Instead, his job is to manage the game while also protecting the football. And by all accounts, I'd say he's doing just fine with that so far.

Sharps Continue to Love the Eagles

Philadelphia has been one of those teams that sharp bettors seem to bet up each week. Part of the reason they've fallen in love with the Eagles is because of their ability to stay ahead of the chains, even by running the football. Note that Philadelphia has the highest rushing success rate in the league at 49.4%, per rbsdm.com.

The Eagles' success rate is particularly evident on third down as they have a conversion rate of 44.2%, which puts them sixth overall in the league. It's not often that you see a team that's two games below .500 ranked that high in third-down conversion rate. That's even higher than teams like the Cardinals (42.9%) and Rams (42.24%), who have a combined 15 wins on the season. Thus, it's possible to see why sharp bettors think this Philadelphia team is so undervalued.

I've gone through much of the Eagles' stats this season, and it's abundantly clear that this team has underachieved. Their Pythagorean expectation shows they should at least be a .500 team and not one that has a .400 winning percentage. So why have the Eagles been so underwhelming?

The answer is a bit complicated, as it's something you're not necessarily going to find anywhere on a stats sheet. I surmise that these are nothing more than natural growing pains for a rookie head coach and a second-year quarterback. However, sharp bettors are on to something with this team, and it'll be interesting to see how they're priced next year.

NFL Pick: Saints vs. Eagles

It's difficult to ignore the line movement in this game. Initially, I thought it was related to Alvin Kamara being out. However, the Saints will also be without two starting tackles, and that sounds like a recipe for disaster when you're already starting a backup quarterback. On defense, New Orleans won't have a starting tackle in Malcolm Roach and a backup edge rusher in Tanoh Kpassagnon.

Meanwhile, the Eagles' injury report is much more manageable, and they'll also get back Miles Sanders. He was activated off IR on Saturday after missing the past three games with an ankle injury.

But there's one thing that's keeping me from pressing the button on the Eagles. Saints head coach Sean Payton is a perfect 7-0 ATS in this spot off a close game that either resulted in a tie or a loss of no more than two points.

If all things were equal, I'd be taking the points with the road underdogs. However, as I stated, the injuries are problematic enough that I'm now leaning more in the direction of the Eagles.

Philadelphia has yet to win a home game in four attempts this season, and I doubt they'd get a better opportunity than on Sunday against New Orleans. As a result, I would bypass the Eagles altogether on the point spread and back them to win the game straight up. SugarHouse has the best price on the board at -139 at the time of writing (see real-time NFL odds here), and I'd consider playing them up to -148.

Lean: Eagles ML -139 | Bet to: -148