Lions vs. Seahawks Odds, Picks, Predictions: How To Find Betting Value with Jared Goff Doubtful
Emilee Chinn/Getty Images. Pictured: Lions RB D’Andre Swift
- Where's the betting value on Lions vs. Seahawks odds with Jared Goff doubtful for NFL Week 17?
- Our analyst makes his picks and predictions in the preview below, complete with his recommended bet on the over/under.
|Time||4:25 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Gun Lake. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
It’s a lost season for the Seahawks, as they’re out of the playoff picture at 5-10 after losing two straight. Meanwhile, the Lions’ season was lost before it began, as the rebuilding franchise lost their first eight games.
Detroit has played hard, though, rattling off two wins in its last four games — including a major upset over the Cardinals. There’s little left to play for other than pride, making motivation a major question. Lions faithful would actually prefer a loss here, as they’re clinging to the second overall pick for the 2022 NFL Draft heading into Week 17.
From a real-life perspective, the Lions are one of the worst teams in football. However, they’ve been extremely kind to gamblers. They’re 10-5 against the spread (ATS), the NFL’s third-best record. The Seahawks are a pedestrian 7-8 ATS, though that’s also better than their actual record (5-10).
Can Detroit pull off another cover in Seattle? I’m willing to bet on it.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Lions vs. Seahawks Injury Report
- FB Jason Cabinda (knee): Out
- QB Jared Goff (knee): Doubtful
- LB Curtis Bolton (back): Questionable
- LB Jon Rhattigan (knee): Out
- OT Brandon Shell (shoulder): Doubtful
- RB Alex Collins (abdomen): Questionable
Lions vs. Seahawks Matchup
|Lions Offense||DVOA Rank||Seahawks Defense|
|Lions Defense||DVOA Rank||Seahawks Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Lions Have Shown Signs of Life
The Lions’ offense has struggled all season, ranking 29th in points per game. They were thought to be one of the least-talented offensive units heading into the season, and that was before injuries piled up. They struggled to run the ball early o, as injuries wreaked havoc on their offensive line, which was expected to be the best positional group on the team.
Right when the line got healthy, skill position injuries took over.
Tight end T.J. Hockenson is done for the season while D’Andre Swift has missed the last four (though is expected to return this week). Despite that, they’ve scored 23 points per game over the last three starts by Jared Goff. (Tim Boyle started Week 16, but the Lions scored only 16 points in that one.) That’s a testament to Goff’s improvement throughout the season, and sets up nicely against the Seahawks’ 28th-ranked pass defense.
That said, Goff is now doubtful for Sunday with a knee injury.
The Lions’ defense has also been ravaged by injuries, with a ridiculous 10 members of their secondary on injured reserve. That’s in addition to the loss of top pass-rushers Romeo Okwara and Trey Flowers. Limited pass rush (30th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate) and a no-name secondary explain their poor pass defense.
Like their offense, their defense has shown signs of improvement of late, which is a testament to coordinator Aaron Glenn. His unit held the Cardinals and Falcons to a combined 32 points over the past two weeks. If they can hold these birds to 20 or fewer points, the Lions have a solid chance in this one.
Seahawks Struggle In Secondary
The Seahawks were never really able to find a rhythm this season. They were 2-2 heading into Week 5, then lost that game and their star quarterback. They went 1-3 without Russell Wilson, and were never able to recover upon his return. Wilson has had his moments, leading to their 12th-ranked passing DVOA, but it hasn’t been enough.
The run game has stood out as the strength of the offense. They’ve managed that despite an underwhelming offensive line that ranks 19th in adjusted line yards. That already struggling unit could be missing three starters this week, making it a situation to keep an eye on.
The Seahawks’ rushing success is doubly impressive considering their running back situation. Three backs have started at least four games, but none of them more than six. Rashaad Penny has been the most effective, running for more than five yards per attempt. They’ll need him to be effective in Week 17 against a Lions team that ranks top-10 in yards per rush on the season.
The Seahawks have one of the more exploitable passing defenses in the league, allowing the second-most yards per game. They’ve fared much better against the run, but that’s not a recipe for success in today’s NFL — it’s a passing league and the Seahawks’ inability to defend the pass has hurt them.
It might not be so bad against the Lions, though. They’ve done their best to be a run-first team, despite plenty of negative game-scripts. They shifted a bit without Swift, but he’s expected to return this week.
If the Lions revert back to forcing the issue on the ground, that favors the Seahawks.
Lions vs. Seahawks Predictions
Detroit is one of the better teams against the spread this season. In a way, Dan Campbell is the ideal coach for spread bettors. He almost always has the Lions prepared and playing hard against tough competition. However, his late-game management leaves something to be desired, resulting in a lot of covers that could have been outright wins.
Unfortunately, with Goff doubtful, I’ll be shying away from this spread. (Though if we get late news that Goff is active, I’ll be taking the Lions +7.5 or better.)
With the Lions likely to turn to Boyle, I’m seeing more value on the under. These teams have combined to score 37.7 points per game — and that’s under better circumstances. In addition to their quarterback (and tight end) situation, there’s some moderately impactful weather expected in Seattle. Current reports have wind gusts expected in the mid-teens and a high chance of rain.
Pick: Under 41.5 | Bet to: 40.5
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