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Colts vs. Texans NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Is This Double-Digit Spread Too Big For Indy To Cover?

Colts vs. Texans NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Is This Double-Digit Spread Too Big For Indy To Cover? article feature image

Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Carson Wentz.

  • Are the Colts really good enough to cover this 10-point spread -- even against the lowly Texans?
  • After examining the Colts vs. Texans odds and matchup, our analyst doesn't think so.
  • He makes his pick on this Week 6 NFL spread below.

Colts vs. Texans

Colts Odds -10
Texans Odds +10
Over/Under 43.5
Time 1 p.m. ET
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

In a matchup of one-win AFC South teams in Week 6, the Texans travel north to take on the Colts.

The Texans nearly shocked the NFL last week by holding a two-possession lead in the third quarter against the Patriots, only for Mac Jones to work some magic and pull off a late comeback win. But the play of the offense, particularly quarterback Davis Mills, was the silver lining of the loss. Houston will need similar production from Mills to keep games competitive moving forward.

The Colts suffered a similar defeat as they blew a 22-3 lead to the Ravens on Monday Night Football. Injuries to the Colts’ secondary opened the door for the comeback, and those ailments will likely impact this game, with cornerbacks Xavier Rhodes (questionable) and Rock Ya-Sin missing practice time this week due to injury. 

The Colts have started much slower than expected and this should be their opportunity to start turning things around, but do they have enough to cover this big spread? Let’s take a look.

Has the Texans Offense Turned A Corner?

The Texans were a trainwreck offensively entering last week’s game, averaging 4.5 points and 151 yards per game in Mills’ first two NFL starts against Carolina and Buffalo. Then against Bill Belichick, who has a great track record against rookie quarterbacks, something must have finally clicked for Mills — they had their most yards passing (293) of the season en route to scoring 22 points.

Providing a big boost to the offense were wide receivers Chris Moore and Chris Conley. The duo combined for 40 yards on the season coming into the matchup and finished the game with 193 yards and two touchdowns. Moore and Conley have the speed and athleticism to cause opposing defensive backs lots of trouble and can potentially take pressure off Brandin Cooks.

David Johnson has also provided a boost to Houston’s offense as a pass-catching back, as he has throughout his career with a 68.5% catch rate. His six targets and 46 receiving yards were his most in a game this season, providing Mills a necessary safety valve in the passing game.

But while the offense found a rhythm, the defense continued its struggles. Through the first five games, the Texans rank 27th and 26th in points and yards allowed per game. Their only saving grace on defense has been their ability to force turnovers, ranking sixth in the NFL with eight, though Carson Wentz has only two turnovers (one fumble lost and one interception) on the season.

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Are Colts Finding Success Through the Air?

Moving the ball was not a problem for the Colts on Monday night in Baltimore. Of Indianapolis’ 10 drives, eight ended in field-goal range.

The Colts’ success came from production they had not yet had in the passing game. In their first four games, Indianapolis averaged 214 passing yards per game. Against the Ravens, that number skyrocketed to 390.

Indianapolis’ slow starts may have been due to a conservative game plan for Wentz. Last season in Philadelphia, he struggled to avoid mistakes, throwing 15 interceptions and completing just 57.4% of passes. As mentioned above, turnovers haven’t been an issue and he’s completing passes at a 65.3% clip. This might be a good matchup for head coach Frank Reich to loosen the reins on his quarterback.

As for the running game, injuries have mildly set it back relative to the preseason hype. Indianapolis has been forced to start eight offensive linemen this season, with the most detrimental absence coming in the form of All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson.

Indianapolis has still managed to rank slightly above league average in rushing yards and yards per carry, but expectations were higher with Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines in the backfield. Until the offensive line can get healthy, things might not get any better.

Defensively, the Colts have been like night and day when it comes to stopping the pass and run. Against the run, Indianapolis allows the 11th fewest yards per carry and has allowed only one rushing touchdown this season. We even saw the Colts stifle the Ravens’ ground game, ending their impressive streak of 43 straight games with at least 100 rushing yards.

Against the pass, though, the Colts have pretty much let teams do whatever they want. Indianapolis has allowed the most passing touchdowns on the season and the fourth-most net yards per pass attempt.

Things are even worse when teams trail the Colts and need to throw to catch up. When playing with a lead, Indianapolis has allowed a passer rating of 151.0 and seven touchdowns to opposing offenses, which is clear given what Lamar Jackson did on Monday night. It will continue to be a long season for the Colts if they continue defending the pass like that.

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NFL Picks: Colts vs. Texans

The Colts have too good of a team to not control this game. They may have four losses but those came against the Seahawks, Titans, Rams and Ravens — all teams we expected to be in the playoff hunt. And it should be noted that the Colts had leads against three of them.

The main issue for Indianapolis is its offensive production has not led to scoring the way it should. The Colts rank fourth plays per drive and ninth in yards per drive, but just 16th in points per drive. Per Flurry Sports, Indianapolis ranks last in red-zone touchdown percentage at 36.8%. The Colts’ inability to finish drives too often leaves the door open for opponents to strike back. Monday night is the perfect example.

Indy’s inability to light up the scoreboard, paired with PFF’s second-worst coverage unit, is not a recipe to cover. Mills looked much better against New England and now gets a pretty good matchup on the road.

The Texans offense still might be pushing average at best, but that should be enough to overcome the Colts’ lack of defense. 

This spread is simply too much for a team that struggles to score and is weak on the backend. Houston might lose, but it should keep it close enough to cover.

Pick: Texans +10 | No further

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