Washington vs. Raiders Odds, Predictions, Picks For NFL Week 13: How To Find Betting Value With A Teaser
Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Taylor Heinicke.
- With Washington Football Team vs. Raiders odds holding steady at a 1.5-point spread, where's the betting value on this NFL Week 13 matchup?
- Our analyst examines the odds and matchup in order to make his predictions and picks below.
Washington vs. Raiders Odds
|Time||4:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
There are no throwaway games in the NFL. Not when you have a 17-game schedule and not even when you’re facing a non-conference opponent. That’s precisely where the Washington Football Team and Las Vegas Raiders find themselves in Week 13.
On the surface, it might look like a game without much appeal. Yet, the reality is that both teams are very much in position to make a run at the playoffs. At 6-5, the Raiders are tied with the Chargers and Broncos for the seventh seed in the AFC. As for Washington, it’s 5-6 and also tied for the seventh seed in the NFC, but with Minnesota and Atlanta.
As a result, there should be plenty of motivation on both sides for this game. However, that doesn’t make the handicap any more straightforward, considering how flawed each team is at the moment. I’ll delve into that and much more, and maybe we’ll be able to find a betting angle suitable enough for us to get behind it.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Washington vs. Raiders Injury Report
- S Landon Collins (foot): Out
- RB J.D. McKissic (concussion): Out
- G Wes Schweitzer (ankle): Out
- DB Benjamin St-Juste (concussion): Out
- WR Curtis Samuel (groin): Questionable
- TE Ricky Seals-Jones (hip): Questionable
- C Tyler Larsen POS (knee): Questionable
- OT Ereck Flowers Sr. (foot): Questionable
- DE Carl Nassib (knee): Out
- LB Patrick Onwuasor (hamstring): Out
- TE Darren Waller (back/knee): Out
- RB Josh Jacobs (ankle): Questionable
- WR DeSean Jackson (calf): Questionable
- LB Nick Kwiatkoski (ankle): Questionable
- CB Kiesean Nixon (ankle): Questionable
Washington vs. Raiders Matchup
|Washington Offense||DVOA Rank||Raiders Defense|
|Washington Defense||DVOA Rank||Raiders Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Washington Remains in Playoff Hunt
It might not always look pretty, but the Football Team is on a three-game winning streak. They managed to outgain their opponents in all three of those wins and were the better team on third down in each instance. When you do those two things right, you’re on the right path to winning football games.
Though, if you’re looking for something to be picky about with Washington, you might want to start with its quarterback Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke is ranked 21st in ESPN’s Total QBR metric (48.8). While I wouldn’t necessarily say he’s been a passenger and that the team’s been carrying him, I would say that I thought his numbers would’ve been a bit better.
However, a closer look reveals that Heinicke has played much better over the last few games as he’s thrown just one interception over his previous three outings. He’s also completed at least 72.7% of his passes in each game during that stretch. Before this winning streak, Heinicke threw six interceptions in four games, which all resulted in losses for Washington.
The other thing worth mentioning is Washington’s running game. Although it’s ranked 25th overall in run DVOA, it racked up 342 rushing yards in its last two games. And recently, against Tampa Bay, it finished just six yards shy of a 100-yard game against a defense that few teams even dare to try to run on.
If you’re a Washington fan, the good news is that there’s a clear commitment to running the football. Per TeamRankings, Washington ranks ninth in run play percentage (45.19%), and over its last three games, it’s up to third with 59.22% of its plays on the ground.
The ability to run the ball can be vital, especially when you’re on the road and trying to take the crowd out of the game. Washington will be up against a Raiders team that’s 25th in allowing opponents 125.9 yards per game.
Keep in mind that Washington rushing plays rank fifth with a 55% success rate. per Sharp Football Stats. I don’t think Washington’s running game gets enough credit, considering that it might be the very thing that tips the scales in its favor on Sunday.
Raiders Revived Season on Thanksgiving
As I prep for a game and pour over the relevant stats for both teams, I always ask myself: Are either of these teams a fugazi? No matter how many times I felt myself drifting over to the Football Team, I always landed back on the Raiders. Maybe it’s because of their 36-point effort against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day — which seemingly came out of nowhere — or maybe it’s because of all the team’s turmoil following the resignation of a head coach and the release of two first-round picks due to unconscionable actions.
In the three games before the Raiders’ Thanksgiving win, they averaged just 14.3 points per contest. They looked like a team that was already waving the white flag, just hoping to hit the reset button for next season. However, the Raiders dominated the Cowboys and outgained them in yardage, 509-437.
Las Vegas also won the time-of-possession battle as it had the ball 65% of the time in the ball game. But perhaps the biggest takeaway was that the vaunted Cowboys offense couldn’t run the ball, as it finished with just 64 yards on the day and 3.2 yards per carrying.
In contrast, the Raiders ran for 143 yards and 4.1 yards per attempt. Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr also recorded his sixth 300-yard passing day of the season. He’ll need to have another big game for the Raiders to pick up their second win in as many weeks.
At first glance, it looks like Las Vegas can exploit Washington’s pass defense. After all, the Football Team is ranked 30th in that DVOA category. However, while Washington is 30th in allowing 266.6 passing yards per game, it’s allowing 213 per game over its last three contests, which is good enough for 15th in the league during that span.
Something will have to give in this matchup, and the answer might be somewhere in the injury report.
Washington vs. Raiders Predictions, Picks
In boxing, you often hear the phrase “styles make fights.“ Well, I think we have a similar scenario on our hands with this matchup. We know the Raiders will want to throw the ball, but how effective will they be given that their most-targeted player, Darren Waller, won’t suit up? And while Las Vegas signed DeSean Jackson following the release of Henry Ruggs III, one thing you can almost count on is the 14-year veteran landing on the injury report with one ailment or another.
As for Washington, the loss of Landon Collins will likely have the most significant impact on the team given the hybrid role he plays as a safety and a linebacker. Thus, massive question marks on both sides make this handicap quite challenging.
One thing I found that’s intriguing is that while Washington will be on six days of rest, teams in this spot are 157-136-9, up 14.72 units. Furthermore, this system is on a 9-1 against the spread (ATS) run dating back to last season.
However, the injury report remains a bit of a concern for me, so I’ll take the non-traditional route and play some different combination teasers by pairing Washington with any one of the following teams: Vikings -1 from -7, Cardinals -1 from -7, Patriots +9 from +3, and Dolphins PK from -6.
Pick: Two-team six-point teaser: Washington +7.5 plus Vikings -1 (-110) | Risk 0.5 units
Bonus Pick: Five-team six-point teaser combo: Washington +7.5, Vikings -1, Patriots +9, Dolphins PK, Cardinals -1 (+410) | Risk 0.25 units
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