NFL Odds & Picks: Where You Can Still Bet Washington +3 at Cowboys
Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Smith #11 of the Washington Football Team
- Late money is moving betting odds for the Washington Football Team vs. Dallas Cowboys matchup on Thanksgiving.
- We detail the line movement below, complete with which sportsbooks are still offering the spread at 3.
NFL Odds: Washington vs. Cowboys
|PRO Projections||Cowboys -0.8 | O/U: 46|
|Time/Channel||4:30 p.m. ET, FOX|
Earlier today I touched on the value that the Washington Football Team vs. Dallas Cowboys over/under is providing.
The Washington vs. Cowboys spread just made a key move off the most important number in NFL betting, showing how late action is driving odds movement.
Let’s take a quick look at this latest Washington vs. Cowboys line move and why it’s so important.
NFL Pick: Washington vs. Cowboys
It may be “just a half-point line move,” but remember, all line moves aren’t created equal in NFL betting.
Because of how teams score in professional football, like three points for field goals, six points for touchdowns and additional points for PATs, final scores tend to land on multiples of those numbers.
Unsurprisingly, three points it the most common margin of victory in the NFL — 14.8% of all games since 2003 have finished on that number. This, in turn, makes 3 the most important number for spread bettors and one oddsmakers protect at all costs.
For example, sportsbooks prefer to adjust the vig on each side of three before moving to 2.5 or 3.5, and that’s exactly what has happened for today’s Washington vs. Cowboys game.
This number sat at Washington +3 for most of the week, and the vig on Washington had reached the -120s as of this morning. However, shortly after noon ET today oddsmakers finally cried uncle and dropped the spread to +2.5.
A move like this tells us two key pieces of information:
- Despite holding strong for most of the week, oddsmakers finally got so heavy with Washington action that they decided to discount the Cowboys to -2.5 in order to balance their books.
- If one of your sportsbooks is still hanging a reasonable Washington +3, like BetMGM’s +3 (-121), that’s a bet you want to make.