NFL Picks for Week 8: Bet or Wait Using Our Luck Rankings Model
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Darnold.
Our Action Network NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of two criteria:
- At least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings.
- At least 50% lower Luck% in the Luck Rankings.
Overall, these teams are 103-60-6 (62.7%) since the start of the 2018 season against the closing spread, which is how we grade them for consistency.
In Week 7, the Cleveland Browns failed to cover as the unlucky team in a Luck Matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, which kept the 2023 ATS record of unlucky teams meeting at least one threshold at 7-6-2. I did not end up betting on this game, so my personal record on luck-based sides, which you can see in the Action App, remains 6-3-1 for the season.
We've updated the Luck Totals thresholds as we've found some new trends. They are as follows:
- A Luck Total above 10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above 5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 3.
Luck Totals below -5 went 3-0 to the under last week, are 15-7 (68%) to the under this year and 109-73-2 (60%) over the last six years. As tracked in the Action App, my personal record on Luck Totals is 3-1 this season.
Our PRO Report and PRO Projections have helped us consistently get closing line value this year, so we'll keep up with the process as we dive into pass/wait/play for luck games in Week 8.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 8 Games
The 49ers are 28th in our Luck Rankings while the Bengals are No. 2, meaning this game has a Luck Difference of 26.
San Francisco is coming off the second-worst beat of Week 7, a 22-17 loss on Monday Night Football to the Minnesota Vikings. Our Expected Score had that as a 25-20 win for the 49ers, but a Christian McCaffrey red-zone fumble, two Brock Purdy interceptions late in Vikings territory, a missed field goal and a near interception that turned into a 60-yard touchdown for Jordan Addison all played a major factor in shifting the tide toward Minnesota.
Meanwhile, the Bengals had a bye in Week 7, but previously had the second-most lucky result of Week 6. The Seattle Seahawks had the ball inside Cincy's 10-yard line on four separate second-half drives yet came away with just three points.
With both recency and year-long perception possibly in the Bengals' favor more than it should be thanks to excessive luck, this is definitely a spot I want to attack when the line settles.
But I am waiting for the line to settle following news that 49ers starting quarterback Brock Purdy is in concussion protocol and likely to miss this game. Sam Darnold is a very capable backup and could thrive in San Francisco's system, minimizing the drop-off here.
That said, I have no issue waiting for this line to end up at -3 or even -2.5 before betting the 49ers.
Verdict: Wait for 49ers -3 or possibly -2.5 after evaluating where the money is going at -3.
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Five Luck Unders (Luck Total in parentheses)
We have five Luck Unders, so I'll rapid fire what I'm doing with these.
1. Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.8)
This total has risen from 45.5 to 46.5 over the last two days, so I see no reason to bet the under just yet if it could continue to rise to the key number of 47.
Verdict: Wait for 47, then play. If it never gets there, play under 46.5 close to kickoff.
2. Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (-7.0)
We've already seen big money and sharp action come in on the under at 44.5, pushing this down to 43.5. Our PRO report shows 62% of bets and 99% of money on the under, so even though this has moved through the key number of 44, we're still showing nearly a point of value to the under thanks to our PRO Projections.
Verdict: Play under 43.5.
3. New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-6.7)
I've already taken the under — read my analysis here.
4. Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-5.8)
The total sits at 46 right now, but this game has fluctuated between 46 and 46.5 since Monday. Currently both the number of tickets and money is favoring the over, so there's a chance this goes back to 46.5. I'm greedy and would love to wait for the key number of 47, but it does seem resistance keeps coming at 46.5, so I'll probably bite there.
Verdict: Wait for 46.5 then take the under.
5. New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts (-5.2)
This game has firmly planted itself at 43.5 and is our weakest signal to the under. Even at 44, our PRO Projections don't really show any value, so I'll just pass on this one.
Verdict: Pass (unless it miraculously gets to 44.5).
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