NFL Week 1 for the 2025 season has arrived, and I have some NFL player props locked in for the first NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 1 — keep tabs on this story as I continue to add more Week 1 prop picks.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props — Week 1
- QB Drake Maye Under 31.5 Pass Attempts (-110; BetMGM)
- K Chase McLaughlin Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-110; BetMGM)
- RB Tank Bigsby Longest Rush Over 10.5 Yards (-112; FanDuel)
Raiders vs Patriots Player Prop: Drake Maye Pass Attempts
I'm getting ahead of this one as the weather forecast continues to trend for the worse. Rain is expected throughout the game (heavy at times), which should encourage both teams to lean more on the run.
The Patriots are 2.5-point home favorites, which projects them to lead for ~15% more snaps than they did in 2024. That added positive game script should tilt them further toward the ground game.
Drake Maye scrambled at a very high rate as a rookie, and I expect that tendency to continue in Year 2. Every scramble is one less passing attempt.
On the other side, the Raiders should be more run-heavy under Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly, especially with Ashton Jeanty in the backfield. That further lowers the expected play volume overall, which limits Maye’s path to a high pass-attempt game.
I’m projecting this closer to 29.5 attempts, and I expect the market to adjust as the weather angle gets more priced in.
Falcons vs Buccaneers Kicker Prop: Chase McLaughlin FGs Made
The Buccaneers averaged 4.0 red-zone trips per game last year (3rd-most), but it’s unlikely they repeat a 67% red-zone TD rate (3rd) or 51% 3rd-down conversion rate (1st) and will also be without OC Liam Coen, who’s now with the Jaguars.
Even a modest regression in those areas should lead to more field-goal attempts for Chase McLaughlin.
He’s been one of the most accurate kickers in the league, hitting 93.6% of his FG attempts over the past two seasons.
His range is also elite as he’s converted 32-of-39 (82%) kicks from 50+ yards in his career. That kind of trust from coaches typically earns him a few extra long attempts each year.
This game is in a dome, further boosting his expected make rate.
I project this closer to 1.9 FGs made with around a 57% chance to clear. Not necessarily a mid-season hammer spot, but for Week 1, this is a more straightforward edge than a lot of the market.
Panthers vs Jaguars Player Prop: Tank Bigsby Longest Rush
Liam Coen’s offensive scheme should give a boost to Jacksonville’s backfield, but usage is still unsettled between Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby and rookie Bhayshul Tuten.
Early signs point to Etienne and Bigsby handling most of the work out of the gate, with Tuten eased in initially.
Bigsby projects to handle early-down snaps, which makes his longest rush prop more appealing than trying to pin down volume.
The Jaguars are 3.5-point favorites, implying they’ll play with a lead at a ~17% higher rate than last year, which sets up a higher team run rate overall. Even if Bigsby’s touches are capped, it only takes one carry for him to clear this number.
The matchup also helps. Carolina’s run defense has been among the league’s worst over the last two seasons, and while healthier and bolstered with new pieces, this is still one of the easiest spots Bigsby will face all year.
Carolina allowed 2.09 yards before contact per rush (2nd-highest) last season. That’s dangerous against a runner like Bigsby, who consistently generates yards after contact as he ranked third in YAC per attempt last year.
With the set up of better run-blocking lanes plus Bigsby’s ability to turn contact into chunk gains, the conditions are strong for at least one explosive run.
I project his median longest rush closer to 13 yards with about a 59% chance of clearing 10.5.
