NFL Playoff Betting Trends: Winning Teams Covering at Absurd Rate
Adam Glanzman/Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady
When an NFL franchise wins a playoff game, there's an excellent chance it beats the betting spread, too.
Since the Wild Card Round was implemented in 1978, the team that wins also covers at 80% or better in all four postseason rounds.
Playoff Winners
Wild Card: 162-0 SU/139-21-2 ATS (86.9%)
Divisional: 172-0 SU/138-32-2 ATS (81.2%)
Conference Championship: 86-0 SU/75-11 ATS (87%)
Super Bowl: 43-0 SU/36-5-2 ATS (87.8%)
(Full Super Bowl): 55-0 SU/47-6-2 ATS (88.7%)
Upsets automatically register as covers, but favorites are holding up as well, creating a blistering-hot trend heading into the Divisional Round.
2022 Results
| Round | Matchup | Final | Win + Cover? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wild Card | Bengals (-6.5) vs. Raiders | CIN 26-19 | Yes |
| Wild Card | Patriots (-4.5) vs. Bills | BUF 47-17 | Yes |
| Wild Card | Buccaneers (-7) vs. Eagles | TB 31-15 | Yes |
| Wild Card | Cowboys (-3.5) vs. 49ers | SF 23-17 | Yes |
| Wild Card | Chiefs (-12) vs. Steelers | KC 42-21 | Yes |
| Wild Card | Rams (-3.5) vs. Cardinals | LAR 34-11 | Yes |
According to our own Evan Abrams, 2021-22 is the first year since 1988-89 in which no team is at least a touchdown favorite in the Divisional Round, giving the favorites some light numbers to smash.
Divisional Round Lines
Titans (-3.5) vs. Bengals, 47.5
This is the second-most bet game as of Thursday evening, according to our trackers.
Tennessee's also shaping up to be the biggest public favorite of the week: Eighty-two percent of the money at the time of writing is on the Titans to cover the chalk.
Packers (-5.5) vs. 49ers, 47
If there was ever a time for Aaron Rodgers to stymie a San Francisco franchise that's had his number lately, it's Saturday night.
The 49ers are banged up heading into Lambeau Field, plus Jimmy Garoppolo has never played a game in sub-40-degree weather.
Green Bay's 70.6% cover rate (12-5) this season was the second-best mark in football, behind Dallas.
Buccaneers (-3) vs. Rams, 48
Tom Brady's won nine straight in the Divisional Round, the most by a quarterback ever.
He and the Bucs have been lights-out at Raymond James Stadium, covering seven of the last eight.
Chiefs (-1.5) vs. Bills, 54
Here's a narrow spread that'll be graded a win in the trend, barring Kansas City winning by one point.
Arrowhead Stadium has provided a boost for the Chiefs, who have covered five straight as a home favorite.
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