NFL Playoff Betting Trends: Winning Teams Covering at Absurd Rate
Adam Glanzman/Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady
When an NFL franchise wins a playoff game, there’s an excellent chance it beats the betting spread, too.
Since the Wild Card Round was implemented in 1978, the team that wins also covers at 80% or better in all four postseason rounds.
Playoff Winners
Wild Card: 162-0 SU/139-21-2 ATS (86.9%)
Divisional: 172-0 SU/138-32-2 ATS (81.2%)
Conference Championship: 86-0 SU/75-11 ATS (87%)
Super Bowl: 43-0 SU/36-5-2 ATS (87.8%)
(Full Super Bowl): 55-0 SU/47-6-2 ATS (88.7%)
Upsets automatically register as covers, but favorites are holding up as well, creating a blistering-hot trend heading into the Divisional Round.
2022 Results
Round | Matchup | Final | Win + Cover? |
---|---|---|---|
Wild Card | Bengals (-6.5) vs. Raiders | CIN 26-19 | Yes |
Wild Card | Patriots (-4.5) vs. Bills | BUF 47-17 | Yes |
Wild Card | Buccaneers (-7) vs. Eagles | TB 31-15 | Yes |
Wild Card | Cowboys (-3.5) vs. 49ers | SF 23-17 | Yes |
Wild Card | Chiefs (-12) vs. Steelers | KC 42-21 | Yes |
Wild Card | Rams (-3.5) vs. Cardinals | LAR 34-11 | Yes |
According to our own Evan Abrams, 2021-22 is the first year since 1988-89 in which no team is at least a touchdown favorite in the Divisional Round, giving the favorites some light numbers to smash.
Divisional Round Lines
Titans (-3.5) vs. Bengals, 47.5
This is the second-most bet game as of Thursday evening, according to our trackers.
Tennessee’s also shaping up to be the biggest public favorite of the week: Eighty-two percent of the money at the time of writing is on the Titans to cover the chalk.
Packers (-5.5) vs. 49ers, 47
If there was ever a time for Aaron Rodgers to stymie a San Francisco franchise that’s had his number lately, it’s Saturday night.
The 49ers are banged up heading into Lambeau Field, plus Jimmy Garoppolo has never played a game in sub-40-degree weather.
Green Bay’s 70.6% cover rate (12-5) this season was the second-best mark in football, behind Dallas.
Buccaneers (-3) vs. Rams, 48
Tom Brady’s won nine straight in the Divisional Round, the most by a quarterback ever.
He and the Bucs have been lights-out at Raymond James Stadium, covering seven of the last eight.
Chiefs (-1.5) vs. Bills, 54
Here’s a narrow spread that’ll be graded a win in the trend, barring Kansas City winning by one point.
Arrowhead Stadium has provided a boost for the Chiefs, who have covered five straight as a home favorite.
How would you rate this article?
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.