NFL Playoff Predictions: Simulating Wild Card Weekend Through the Super Bowl

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Getty Images. Pictured: Lombardi Trophy

The NFL playoffs are here!

Using our experts’ consensus team ratings (which power our NFL PRO Projections), we used our model to simulate the postseason 10,000 times to project the results of each round. That projected bracket is outlined in the following graphic.

We’ve also detailed every team’s projected chances to advance to each round and win the Super Bowl based on those simulations.

Let’s dive right in.

NFL Playoff Predictions

Note: Higher seeds are always on top of a given matchup. Winners are bolded. 


NFL Playoff Projections

1. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Advance to AFC Championship: 70.3%
  • Advance to Super Bowl: 46.7%
  • Win Super Bowl: 26.8%

2. Buffalo Bills

  • Advance to Divisional Round: 63.1%
  • Advance to AFC Championship: 39.5%
  • Advance to Super Bowl: 18.9%
  • Win Super Bowl: 10.1%

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Advance to Divisional Round: 68.4%
  • Advance to AFC Championship: 28.4%
  • Advance to Super Bowl: 9.7%
  • Win Super Bowl: 3.9%

4. Tennessee Titans

  • Advance to Divisional Round: 40.9%
  • Advance to AFC Championship: 14.8%
  • Advance to Super Bowl: 4.7%
  • Win Super Bowl: 1.6%

5. Baltimore Ravens

  • Advance to Divisional Round: 59.1%
  • Advance to AFC Championship: 28.4%
  • Advance to Super Bowl: 13.6%
  • Win Super Bowl: 7.2%
Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Jackson

6. Cleveland Browns

  • Advance to Divisional Round: 31.6%
  • Advance to AFC Championship: 7.5%
  • Advance to Super Bowl: 1.9%
  • Win Super Bowl: 0.4%

7. Indianapolis Colts

  • Advance to Divisional Round: 36.9%
  • Advance to AFC Championship: 11.1%
  • Advance to Super Bowl: 4.5%
  • Win Super Bowl: 1.7%
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1. Green Bay Packers

  • Advance to NFC Championship: 65.2%
  • Advance to Super Bowl: 38.4%
  • Win Super Bowl: 18.5%

2. New Orleans Saints

  • Advance to Divisional Round: 75.6%
  • Advance to NFC Championship: 50.2%
  • Advance to Super Bowl: 25.4%
  • Win Super Bowl: 11.8%

3. Seattle Seahawks

  • Advance to Divisional Round: 59.3%
  • Advance to NFC Championship: 23.6%
  • Advance to Super Bowl: 10.7%
  • Win Super Bowl: 5.3%
Alika Jenner/Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Wilson, Aaron Donald

4. Washington Football Team

  • Advance to Divisional Round: 28.5%
  • Advance to NFC Championship: 8.1%
  • Advance to Super Bowl: 1.7%
  • Win Super Bowl: 1.0%

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Advance to Divisional Round: 71.5%
  • Advance to NFC Championship: 32.1%
  • Advance to Super Bowl: 17.2%
  • Win Super Bowl: 9.2%

6. Los Angeles Rams

  • Advance to Divisional Round: 40.7%
  • Advance to NFC Championship: 14.6%
  • Advance to Super Bowl: 4.8%
  • Win Super Bowl: 1.8%

7. Chicago Bears

  • Advance to Divisional Round: 24.4%
  • Advance to NFC Championship: 6.2%
  • Advance to Super Bowl: 1.8%
  • Win Super Bowl: 0.7%
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