NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 5 of the 2025 season.
These NFL rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use it to bet on the NFL.
When there is a large difference in luck between two teams, there has been proven success in betting on the unlucky team.
When the Luck Score in a game is 1.454 or higher, unlucky teams are 149-102-7 against the closing spread — the hardest line to beat. That equates to a 59.4% cover rate when pushes are removed over a sample size greater than 250 games!
In Week 4, all three unlucky teams meeting the Luck Score threshold covered, improving Luck Sides to 6-3 ATS on the year. In these nine games, the unlucky team covering by an average of 5.8 points.
Luck Totals kicked in during Week 3. The strong Luck Under went 0-1 to the under, while the weak Luck Unders went 2-3 to the under.
Overall, that puts weak Luck Totals at 2-4 and strong Luck Totals at 2-2 on the season.
Here's how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 5, and be sure to check back on Wednesday, when our Predictive Analyst, Dr. Nick Giffen, breaks down Week 5 luck-based games.
