The NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 6 of the 2025 season.
These NFL rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use it to bet on the NFL.
When there is a large difference in luck between two teams, there has been proven success in betting on the unlucky team.
When the Luck Score in a game is 1.454 or higher, unlucky teams are 150-102-7 against the closing spread — the hardest line to beat. That equates to a 59.5% cover rate when pushes are removed over a sample size greater than 250 games!
In Week 6, the lone unlucky team meeting the Luck Score threshold — the Denver Broncos — covered the spread against the Eagles, moving luck-based sides to 7-3 (70%) ATS on the year. In these 10 games, the unlucky team has covered by an average of 6.0 points.
Luck Totals didn't fare as well, but weak Luck Unders typically don't outperform the market at this time of year. That was the case in Week 5, as all four Luck Totals were weak Luck Unders and went 1-3 to the under. However, our Predictive Analyst, Dr. Nick Giffen was able to correctly identify the one weak Luck Under to attack, and even successfully hit some alt-unders in that Broncos-Eagles clash.
Overall, that puts weak Luck Totals at 3-7 (30%) while strong Luck Totals remain 2-2 (50%) on the season.
Strong totals and sides have a 9-5 (64.3%) record so far in 2025.
Here's how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 6, and be sure to check back on Wednesday, as Dr. Nick Giffen breaks down the Week 6 luck-based games.
NFL Week 6 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets, while the opposite may be true for unlucky teams.
