Sunday Night Football Week 5 brings an excellent AFC East battle, as the Patriots square off with the Bills under the bright lights.
For my top Patriots vs. Bills NFL PrizePicks and Underdog plays, I’m spotlighting Drake Maye, Stefon Diggs, and Rhamondre Stevenson to headline the primetime slate.
Drake Maye
Less Than 21.5 Pass Completions
The angle to take for your PrizePicks or Underdog lineups tonight is to fully fade the New England Patriots' passing attack. That starts with quarterback Drake Maye.
Yes, the Patriots are expected to be trailing, and that would typically increase passing volume, but the issue in this matchup is the time of possession. The Bills are set to dominate the time of possession in this game as they are 28th in seconds per play and run the ball at the third-highest rate in the NFL.
With Buffalo having multiple methodical drives, Maye's opportunity to complete passes shrinks. Not to mention, racking up completions is no easy task, as Buffalo ranks eighth in opponent completion percentage and should put plenty of pressure on Maye when he drops back.
Stefon Diggs
Less Than 49.5 Receiving Yards
The first person impacted by the Patriots' passing struggles will be leading wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Diggs was a massive part of the Pats' win last week when he hauled in six of seven targets for 101 yards.
However, even with that performance, Diggs is still averaging 4.8 receptions on 5.5 targets per game, with him averaging 10.5 yards per reception. Given the odds of -130 to have fewer than 4.5 receptions, the stats and the market point to a below-average game from Diggs here.
It also doesn't help that Buffalo has allowed the fewest receiving yards in the NFL and the sixth fewest to wide receivers specifically.
Rhamondre Stevenson
Less Than 2.5 Receptions
Last week, we finally saw rookie TreVeyon Henderson get involved in the Patriots' offense the way many thought he would in the offseason. He was efficient on the ground and caught each of his two targets.
Now, it has been clear that Henderson is the better receiving back, and it should only be more apparent going forward. This significantly decreases Rhamondre Stevenson's already minimal role in the Patriots' passing attack.
Stevenson had just one target last week and has averaged three on the season. With less passing down work, he's a strong pick to stay under his receptions total tonight.
