NFL Week 2 concludes with a Monday Night Football doubleheader — the first game features the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Houston Texans.
The Buccaneers kicked off the 2025 NFL season with a tight win over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1. The Texans, meanwhile, dropped a winnable game to the Rams.
For Monday Night Football, I'm targeting a Nick Chubb player prop as I suspect the game script for MNF could lead to plenty of opportunities for the Texans' running back — find my NFL prop bet for him below.
NFL Prop Bets: Nick Chubb Over/Under
The Texans have a new offensive coordinator in Nick Caley from the Sean McVay tree. Caley led them to the ninth-lowest pass rate over expected on early downs in the Texans' Week 1 loss to the Rams.
Houston had to shuffle its offensive line with RG Ed Ingram out (he’s back tonight) and trailed for half of the game, which was not ideal for Nick Chubb.
But even in that setup, Chubb finished with 13 carries for 60 yards, looking much closer to his pre-injury form. He was the clear lead back in short-yardage situations with Dameon Pierce and rookie Woody Marks mixing in.
For more Monday Night Football picks, check out our staff's Buccaners vs Texans predictions and best bets.
The Texans also faced the fewest third downs in the league (nine) and converted them at a league-low 22%. That is a brutal environment for Chubb since his best chance at carries comes on 1st downs or in 3rd-and-short situations.
Despite that, Chubb still reached 13 attempts. On their FG drive in the second quarter, he opened with four straight runs before being spelled, and the team ran three more times on that series while up just 6-0. That shows how run heavy the Texans can be in neutral or leading scripts.
Tonight, that script is more likely. The Texans are 2.5-point favorites and have been drawing sharp action.
The Buccaneers were fortunate last week with Baker Mayfield avoiding 1-2 potential interceptions, and their play style under new OC John Grizzard looks like one that will be in the lower half of the league in time of possession. That should give Houston extra plays and more opportunities for Chubb.
I project Chubb closer to 14.4 rush attempts with about a 67% chance to clear 12.5.
I would still take Over 13.5 at +106, where I show about a 58% chance he clears.
Pick: Nick Chubb Over 12.5 Rush Attempts (-133; DraftKings) OR Over 13.5 (+106; FanDuel)
